Hidden hands scuttling peace process in Thai-Cambodian conflict

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Hidden hands scuttling peace process in Thai-Cambodian conflict

From scammers to illegal loggers, criminals are benefiting from a continuous disruption of efforts to ease tension between the two countries

As Asean prepares to investigate the landmine explosion that shattered the fragile Thai–Cambodian truce, the region confronts a sobering truth: peace is no longer threatened only by state decisions, military miscalculations, or competing national narratives.

Increasingly, the real spoilers are the non-traditional actors who thrive in the shadows of conflict — groups for whom instability is not a tragedy, but an opportunity.


This is the uncomfortable reality Southeast Asia must confront. Even as US President Donald Trump exerts immense pressure on both sides to preserve the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord, the border remains a magnet for criminal networks, rogue groups, and illicit economies that can undermine any diplomatic progress.

These actors do not attend peace talks. They do not sign agreements. Yet they have the power to unravel them.


The renewed tension after the landmine blast must therefore be understood not only as a bilateral dispute, but as a corridor where insurgent incentives, criminal profits, and underground economies intersect.

If Asean focuses solely on government-to-government channels, it may secure temporary truces but fail to address the forces that keep dragging peace backward.

One of the most disruptive forces is the nexus of cross-border criminal syndicates operating in the borderlands. These groups depend on ungoverned spaces to conduct smuggling, illegal logging, weapons trafficking, and human movement.

Every moment of tension — every troop mobilisation, every closed checkpoint — creates perfect cover for their activities. For them, peace is bad for business. Stability brings law enforcement, surveillance, and political oversight. Instability lets the underground economy flourish. Their incentive to sabotage the peace is therefore extremely high.


In recent years, another dark industry has expanded dramatically: cyber-fraud and scam networks operating from parts of Cambodia and the Golden Triangle.

These syndicates rely on porous borders to move trafficked workers, illegal equipment, and laundered funds. Any meaningful peace process that includes greater border monitoring will disrupt their lifelines. These groups have both the money and the motivation to provoke tensions through misinformation, intimidation, or even covert violence.

They represent one of the most likely non-traditional spoilers of peace. It is estimated by the United Nations Unit on Transnational Organised Crimes that the cyber frauds from a farm that houses 100,000 illegal workers alone, can make anything between US$300 million to US$450 million (RM1.24 billion to RM1.87 billion) a month.

Equally concerning are rogue militias and unregulated border patrol groups, often aligned with local commanders rather than central authorities. They operate with weapons, territorial claims, and nationalist fervour.


Their actions can be easily mistaken for official military engagements, creating confusion that spirals into national-level crisis.

They possess the capacity to plant mines, stage ambushes, or trigger clashes that derail months of diplomatic work.

In fragile border zones, even one uncontrolled unit can ignite a conflict neither government intended.

Corruption adds another layer of danger. Some local officials and enforcement officers profit directly from illicit border markets, smuggling fees, or informal taxation.

For them, peace means tighter control and reduced income. Conflict offers cover for illegal revenue streams. These actors will quietly but consistently resist any peace-building efforts that threaten their interests.

They may not plant mines, but they can obstruct implementation, distort reporting, or quietly encourage disruptions.

Illegal loggers and timber cartels also thrive in the dense forests along the border. These networks have operated for decades, often with sophisticated protection from criminal groups.

Forest conflict benefits them because it pushes civilians away and weakens state monitoring. For Asean’s de-mining teams and investigators, these groups represent both an environmental and security risk.

Disinformation networks are another potent threat, especially in the age of social media. Troll farms, political operatives, and nationalist agitators — both domestic and foreign — can inflame passions within hours.

A single doctored video or audio leak can push public opinion toward confrontation and pressure governments into hardline responses.

These non-traditional actors are invisible but powerful, and they complicate Asean’s efforts to build trust between Bangkok and Phnom Penh.

Neither should we overlook ex-combatants, unemployed former fighters, or long-marginalised veterans of earlier border clashes.

Some possess deep grievances, while others simply understand conflict better than civilian life.

Their familiarity with the terrain, weaponry, and local networks makes them capable of triggering incidents that governments struggle to control.

Borderlands are also fertile ground for human trafficking networks, poaching gangs, fuel smugglers, and informal cartels that depend on porous boundaries.

Each of these groups benefits from weak enforcement, fragmented authority, and confusion along the frontier. Peace threatens to close the loopholes they exploit.

All these actors — from traffickers to troll farms — operate independently of the diplomatic architecture that Asean painstakingly builds.

They are the spoilers of quiet moments, the beneficiaries of chaos, and the invisible competitors of peace.

This is why Asean must recognise that the Thai–Cambodian conflict cannot be treated purely as a state-centric problem.

Even if Thailand and Cambodia reaffirm their commitments under the KL Peace Accord, the peace will remain fragile unless Asean factors in non-traditional threats with the same seriousness as conventional military risks.

The first step is to strengthen Asean’s border monitoring mechanism so it can track not only troop movements but abnormal patterns of smuggling, illegal logging, cyber-fraud migration, and disinformation spikes.

The second is to incorporate non-traditional security actors into the peace architecture — through intelligence sharing, anti-trafficking cooperation, environmental policing, and coordinated crackdowns on criminal networks.

Peace in the region will no longer be secured merely through diplomacy and summits. It will be maintained through constant vigilance, cross-border coordination, and a deep understanding of the shadow economies that thrive when governments are distracted.

The landmine incident is a warning. Asean must not focus only on the mines that explode beneath soldiers’ feet, but on the hidden forces beneath the surface — the non-traditional actors who benefit from every setback and seize every opportunity to keep conflict alive.

True peace will come only when Asean shines a light into every corner of the borderlands.

The region must be ready not only for state-level dialogue but also for the unrelenting shadow war waged by actors who fear peace more than conflict.