A major breakthrough of US and EU on Ukraine or mere rant? Asean taking notes — Phar Kim Beng

A major breakthrough of US and EU on Ukraine or mere rant? Asean taking notes — Phar Kim Beng


Thursday, 25 Sep 2025 10:42 AM MYT


SEPTEMBER 25 — When US President Donald Trump strode onto the podium at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, he once again demonstrated his uncanny ability to confound friends and foes alike. In one sweeping speech, he derided global institutions, questioned the very existence of the UN, told assembled leaders “your countries are going to hell,” and berated Europe for “buying oil and gas from Russia while they’re fighting Russia.”

Hours later, however, he posted on Truth Social that Ukraine could “fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”

The contradictions were whiplash-inducing. Trump has often expressed scepticism about US commitments abroad, especially the costly support for Ukraine. His sudden proclamation that Kyiv could prevail sounded almost like an endorsement of the very Western solidarity he has previously disparaged. Was this a sustainable breakthrough or just another moment of rhetorical theatre designed to seize headlines?



US President Donald Trump addresses the 80th United Nations General Assembly at the UN headquarters in New York City on Sept 23, 2025. — Reuters pic


Brussels reacts

Europe responded with cautious optimism. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign-policy chief, welcomed Trump’s remarks. “This is what we have been saying the whole time,” she said during a Foreign Policy event on the sidelines of the UN meetings.

She emphasised that the EU has stayed the course with sanctions against Russia, financial lifelines for Kyiv, and military aid, regardless of Washington’s internal debates. Ukrainian officials, fresh from meeting Trump, appeared buoyed. For them, even fleeting signs of American backing remain a lifeline.


Yet Brussels knows better than to rely solely on Trump’s words.

His history is one of volatility: praising Nato allies one day, questioning the alliance’s relevance the next; expressing admiration for strongmen before pivoting back to condemnation. Europe cannot afford to allow its long-term security to be tethered to such mercurial shifts. That is why Kallas underlined Europe’s determination to act independently: “We are staying on that course. Anybody else who wants to join is welcome.”

Asean watching closely

For Southeast Asia, this spectacle was not distant drama but a live tutorial in the perils of overdependence. Asean has long declared the “centrality of Asean” in regional diplomacy, but the reality is that the region is deeply vulnerable to external swings.

Trump’s rhetorical reversals in New York were a warning shot: reliance on unpredictable external guarantors can destabilise entire regions.

Asean’s policy of neutrality and non-alignment has often been hailed as a strength. Yet neutrality is not immunity. When Washington vacillates on Ukraine, Moscow recalibrates its strategy by courting partners elsewhere—including in Southeast Asia.

Russia has already deepened defence ties with Myanmar and continues to seek energy deals across Asia. China, watching American inconsistency, is emboldened to push its maritime claims in the South China Sea more assertively, calculating that US resolve may falter.

Thus, Ukraine’s war is not only Europe’s crisis. It is a mirror for Asean’s own vulnerabilities. Just as Ukraine’s fate hinges on the credibility of external commitments, Asean’s stability depends on whether great powers treat the region as a partner or merely an arena for rivalry.

Lessons for Asean

There are three lessons Asean must take from the US–EU dynamic over Ukraine.

First, policy independence is non-negotiable. Europe’s insistence on maintaining sanctions and aid to Ukraine regardless of American hesitation sets a precedent.

Asean, too, must design its own resilience strategies rather than letting external powers dictate terms. This means building stronger intra-Asean supply chains, diversifying energy sources, and reinforcing cybersecurity and undersea cable security—critical for the digital economy.

Second, unity outweighs rhetoric. Trump’s whiplash pronouncements highlight how easily external partners can shift course.

Asean’s unity, however fragile, is its only defence against manipulation. Without common positions on Myanmar’s crisis, Thai–Cambodian border clashes, or South China Sea tensions, Asean risks being fragmented by external pressures.

Third, dialogue must produce institutions with teeth. Europe has learned that rhetoric from across the Atlantic cannot substitute for consistent policies. Asean, likewise, must evolve from issuing communiqués to building institutions capable of crisis management.

The idea of a World Dialogue Academy, supported by Asean’s dialogue partners, as proposed by Professor Datuk Osman Bakar the Rector of International Islamic University of Malaysia, could institutionalize resilience by preparing Track 2 and Track 1.5 frameworks that help Asean absorb shocks from unpredictable great powers.

Malaysia’s role as Asean Chair 2025

The stakes are particularly high this year as Malaysia assumes the Asean chairmanship. Kuala Lumpur has already taken bold steps by mediating the Thai–Cambodian border ceasefires in July and August 2025—demonstrating that Asean can defuse crises within its own region when political will is mobilised.

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has emphasised Malaysia’s role as a “facilitator,” able to bring contending powers to the same table while safeguarding Asean’s credibility.

The upcoming East Asia Summit (EAS) in October 2025, hosted in Kuala Lumpur, will test this convening power to the fullest. Trump and BRICS leaders such as Lula da Silva and Cyril Ramaphosa will gather alongside Asean leaders at East Asian Summit.

Their words will be watched closely, but Asean—under Malaysia’s stewardship—must ensure that dialogue is not reduced to spectacle. Trump’s UN performance is a reminder that leaders may speak in extremes, but Asean must anchor them in frameworks that promote restraint, compromise, and long-term stability.

Malaysia’s chairmanship also coincides with Asean’s efforts to push the Kuala Lumpur Vision 2045. This blueprint envisions Asean as a dialogical community capable of navigating post-normal global turbulence.

The Vision will carry little weight, however, if Asean fails to respond decisively to immediate crises like Myanmar’s civil war or maritime frictions in the South China Sea.

Trump’s rhetorical oscillations in New York underline the urgency: Asean cannot wait for external clarity. It must create its own.

Asean taking notes

If Trump’s apparent embrace of Ukraine’s potential victory signals a genuine breakthrough, it shows that persistence and unity can sway even the most unpredictable leaders.

Asean must internalise this lesson. Its collective resolve—whether on economic integration, humanitarian crises, or security challenges—can shape how external powers engage with the region. But if Trump’s words prove hollow, Asean must prepare for a future where volatility is the norm.

Trump’s rant may evolve into a breakthrough—or it may remain just another performance.

Either way, Asean must take notes, because in a world where even superpowers falter, only those who plan, unify, and prepare will endure.

* Phar Kim Beng, PhD, is professor of Asean Studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia and director of the Institute of International and Asean Studies (IINTAS).