FMT:
PH’s 51-seat target for Selangor ‘unrealistic’, say analysts
Azmi Hassan notes a change in Malay sentiment since 2018, while Mazlan Ali says PN is gaining traction in Malay majority areas.
Political analysts Azmi Hassan (left) and Mazlan Ali believe PH and BN will form the next Selangor government, but say PN will gain ground in Malay majority areas.
PETALING JAYA: Selangor Pakatan Harapan’s target of winning 51 of the 56 legislative assembly seats in the state election is unrealistic as Perikatan Nasional cannot be underestimated, said an analyst.
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said PH’s goal of securing such an overwhelming mandate in the state is a tall order even with Barisan Nasional’s support.
He said the 51-seat target is based on the combined number of seats won by PH and BN in the 2018 state election, but noted that those numbers were secured before Bersatu came into existence.
“Yes, the general election had almost a similar result, but a lot has changed after GE15,” he told FMT.
Azmi said while the cooperation between PH and BN may look good on paper, the sentiments of Malay voters may have changed.
“Traditional Umno voters are quite apprehensive about voting for a PH candidate, especially from DAP, so 51 seats are too lofty (a target),” he said.
Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said the green wave in Selangor can be seen in Malay majority areas like Hulu Selangor, Sabak Bernam and Tanjung Karang.
“Basically, traditional Malay seats are aligning towards PN,” he said.
However, Mazlan said the demography in Selangor includes many mixed-race seats, which give an advantage to PH.
“To me, the target of 51 seats is too big as I see PN has potential to win at least 15 seats in Selangor,” he said.
“I am confident the status quo in Selangor will remain, with PH along with the help of BN (forming the next state government), but to say 51 seats is too high because we can’t underestimate PN.”
Mazlan said issues raised by PN appear to have gained support among the Malays, raising the possibility that the coalition may win 15 seats.
On Sunday, Selangor PH election director Yahya Mat Sahri said the coalition’s confidence is based on the state government’s excellent track record of developing Selangor.
He said voters could see that the PH-led Selangor government has reached out to the people through multiple initiatives which have benefited them, including the Darul Ehsan water scheme, free insurance coverage, a takaful scheme, and a senior citizens scheme.
“In addition, the cooperation between PH and BN is also able to further strengthen the people’s confidence in the unity government as well as draw more votes,” he said.
The state assembly was dissolved on Friday.
PH won 51 of the 56 seats at stake in the previous election in 2018. BN won four seats and PAS one.
Selangor is one of six states that will hold state assembly elections soon. The others are Kedah, Terengganu, Kelantan, Negeri Sembilan and Penang.
PETALING JAYA: Selangor Pakatan Harapan’s target of winning 51 of the 56 legislative assembly seats in the state election is unrealistic as Perikatan Nasional cannot be underestimated, said an analyst.
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said PH’s goal of securing such an overwhelming mandate in the state is a tall order even with Barisan Nasional’s support.
He said the 51-seat target is based on the combined number of seats won by PH and BN in the 2018 state election, but noted that those numbers were secured before Bersatu came into existence.
“Yes, the general election had almost a similar result, but a lot has changed after GE15,” he told FMT.
Azmi said while the cooperation between PH and BN may look good on paper, the sentiments of Malay voters may have changed.
“Traditional Umno voters are quite apprehensive about voting for a PH candidate, especially from DAP, so 51 seats are too lofty (a target),” he said.
Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said the green wave in Selangor can be seen in Malay majority areas like Hulu Selangor, Sabak Bernam and Tanjung Karang.
“Basically, traditional Malay seats are aligning towards PN,” he said.
However, Mazlan said the demography in Selangor includes many mixed-race seats, which give an advantage to PH.
“To me, the target of 51 seats is too big as I see PN has potential to win at least 15 seats in Selangor,” he said.
“I am confident the status quo in Selangor will remain, with PH along with the help of BN (forming the next state government), but to say 51 seats is too high because we can’t underestimate PN.”
Mazlan said issues raised by PN appear to have gained support among the Malays, raising the possibility that the coalition may win 15 seats.
On Sunday, Selangor PH election director Yahya Mat Sahri said the coalition’s confidence is based on the state government’s excellent track record of developing Selangor.
He said voters could see that the PH-led Selangor government has reached out to the people through multiple initiatives which have benefited them, including the Darul Ehsan water scheme, free insurance coverage, a takaful scheme, and a senior citizens scheme.
“In addition, the cooperation between PH and BN is also able to further strengthen the people’s confidence in the unity government as well as draw more votes,” he said.
The state assembly was dissolved on Friday.
PH won 51 of the 56 seats at stake in the previous election in 2018. BN won four seats and PAS one.
Selangor is one of six states that will hold state assembly elections soon. The others are Kedah, Terengganu, Kelantan, Negeri Sembilan and Penang.
One big factor between now and the State Elections is if Najib receives a Royal Pardon.
ReplyDeleteMany PH supporters will choose to stay home on Election Day.
Many Malays will confirm their choice for PN as their "Clean" choice.
PN is NOT.clean, but that is the perception, especially when compared to UMNO and it's refusal to face up to the severe damage which Najib wrought to the National Interest.