Even if decimated at GE15, PKR will bounce back

Even if decimated at GE15, PKR will bounce back




Born during the hope of “reformasi”, PKR is facing electoral decimation in the coming general election. This is based on PKR’s performance in the Melaka, Johor and Sarawak state elections.

PKR certainly looks like a sinking ship. It lost government to a group of party traitors back in February 2020 during the Sheraton Move. One of the original “reformasi” heroes stabbed PKR in the back and split the party. Pakatan Harapan signed an MoU to keep an inept group which is seen as corrupt in power; and it looks like PKR received no pieces of silver for its trouble.

PKR failed to return to the mantle of being an effective opposition at a time the nation needed an opposition that would give hope to the people. PKR needs to show itself as a very credible government in waiting, fully prepared to take back the reins of government in the next general election.

What are the rakyat getting from PKR? A leader who would be prime minister. That’s the perception anyway. Tarnished party elections symbolise that PKR is just as dirty as Umno. There’s the perception of a split within PKR: the Anwar-Saifuddin Nasution Ismail group, and the Rafizi Ramli group.

While Anwar retained the party presidency without any challenge, a respectable outcome in a patriarchal culture, the winners of many of the other posts, led by stalwart reformer Rafizi, the Rocky Balboa of Malaysian politics, symbolically gave the message that PKR is now in transition.

Rafizi defeated Saifuddin for the post of deputy president very comfortably. The new vice-presidents are Selangor menteri besar Amirudin Shari, aligned with Saifuddin, and Negeri Sembilan menteri besar Aminuddin Harun, Tanjung Malim MP Chang Lih
Kang and Setiawangsa MP Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, all of whom are aligned with Rafizi.

The youth and women’s wing leadership were won by Saifuddin supporters.

Although pro-Rafizi candidates took 13 of the top 20 senior party positions, this doesn’t mean there will be any coup e’tat within the party. Many in the pro-Rafizi group are longtime PKR members with their own PKR support bases.

The biggest difference is the Saifuddin-Anwar “big tent” approach to Rafizi’s go it alone approach until after all electoral results are in after GE15. The major implication of the Rafizi approach is that PKR can run more candidates in GE15 – no need to placate the whims of Bersatu and no need to give up seats to an untested Muda.

Missed opportunities

One thing that was apparent during last weekend’s PKR conference was the lack of a vision about what the party would do should it form the government. How would PKR fix the rakyat’s woes? Other than the party president talking about lowering the price of petrol at the pumps and maintaining subsidies, very little was discussed about how inflation, unemployment, growing poverty, and a potential food crisis would be addressed.

Rafizi indulged in negative narratives over the weekend; and repeats of the Invoke study that found Nurul Izzah is more popular with voters than Anwar didn’t have any publicly constructive role to play. The narrative said more about the messenger than the issue of PKR’s electoral popularity.

The targeting of Najib Razak is but the pursuit of the same folly as the Anwar-Najib debate a couple of months ago.

Attacking Najib will likely bring counterproductive results and play right into Najib’s hands. Rafizi appears to have fallen victim to Najib’s goading over the weekend.

Attacking Najib won’t win votes in the Malay heartlands, although it will be appreciated by those who are already going to vote PKR in the urban areas. Only Dr Mahathir Mohamad can pull off such a strategy as he did back in 2018.

The bottom line is that PKR is without any real campaign strategy. With the party congress being most probably the last before GE15, no grand plan for Malaysia was showcased. PKR didn’t use the opportunity to differentiate itself from the government. If PKR reaffirms the MoU with Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob at the end of the month and supports the coming budget, this becomes an affirmation of the (lack of) government economic strategy.

However, PKR and PH are in a quandary over the MoU with Ismail. Any renewal of the MoU weakens the independence of PKR, which technically becomes a pro-government party. Not signing the MoU greatly heightens prospects of a very early election, and PKR is far from ready to compete with Umno.

It’s going to be very difficult for PKR to hold on to the 48 seats it has in parliament. It is most likely that PKR will suffer very heavy electoral results and decimate the party.

If PKR performs badly, the first item on its agenda must be a planned and quick transition to the next generation of leaders.

PKR is ready to transition to the post-Anwar era. The talent is there. The party has survived electoral tsunamis, treacherous splits and political infighting.

There is a role for Anwar as a political mentor-statesman who can talk about what a new Malaysia should look like.

PKR can then rediscover itself as a political party and speak for the real needs of the rakyat. There is currently a massive political vacuum in this space, which Muda hasn’t as yet taken up.

The country badly needs a youth-orientated multi-racial party with a clear vision for a future Malaysia.

PKR must reassert its multi-racial roots and fulfil the original purpose of its formation. It’s going to take some time to do this but five years after GE15 is not a long time in politics. It has the potential to bounce back.