Monday, July 25, 2016

Penang snap election will see extinction of state PAS

MM Online - Guan Eng confident of retaining Penang if snap polls held now


GEORGE TOWN, July 25 — Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng said today he is confident of Pakatan Harapan’s chances of retaining Penang if snap elections were to be held.

Lim said he has faith in all Malaysians and that they would make the right decision.

“I have faith that the people of Penang want a clean government and not a dirty government,” the Penang CM said.

He said the state polls will not only allow the people to pass their verdict on the two corruption charges against him, but also on the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal.

He expressed his confidence that the people will make the “right decision”.

“Yes, it’s a risk, I’m still confident, and if results don’t side with us, we will accept it as long as the elections are held clean and fair,” he said.

Lim insisted that having the state polls is the best way for the people to send a strong message to Putrajaya.

“If we look at Bersih 1, 2, 3, 4, BN ignored it, and even if there’s a Bersih 5, BN will ignore it,” he said, referring to his political opponent, Barisan Nasional.

Leaving aside my support of DAP (despite some current clowns in that party, wakakaka), I have to say, without being biased (not that you'd believe me, wakakaka), that Guan Eng is right.

All Pakatan (or what's left of it) needs is 21 state seats to retain majority rule in the state and form government. Currently DAP holds 19 seats, PKR 10, UMNO 10 and PAS 1. Out of the 29 seats Pakatan now holds, it only has to defend with success a minimum 21.

Probably DAP's main worry is its maverick Teh Yee Cheu (Tanjung Bungah). Will the DAP retain Teh as its candidate in Tanjung Bungah or use the snap elections to remove him? There is a danger that the locals may resent DAP removing him.

Now this is not to say the DAP needn't worry about Gerakan and MCA but if these two BN component parties are once again eliminated from the Penang political landscape, they'll be gone for good, not just by the will of Penangites but by a disgusted Ah Jib Gor, wakakaka. Thus Gerakan and MCA will be striving their utmost best a la the Spartans at Thermopylae.



But in the main, the DAP will do well. I believe that together with PKR and probably Amanah, the new Pakatan will do better than 21, though I am not too sure, with PAS playing UMNO-assigned spoiler in the constituencies with significant number of Malay voters, if it will affect some of the seats that PKR currently holds and those that Amanah may be contesting for the first time in Penang.

Understandably PKR is the most worried member in Pakatan as it dreads the inevitable 3-corner fights with UMNO and spoiler PAS, with the so-called Islamic party likely to suck away of the anti-UMNO Malay votes which PKR has enjoyed since 2008.

In a way, that of sweet justice, it's fitting worry if not punishment for PKR who had sabotaged DAP in Sarawak by treacherously insisting on 3-corner fights in the DAP's allocation of state constituencies. Reap what you f**king sow.

Over at RPK's Malaysia-Today, from a FMT article, the relevant extracts I have borrowed are as follow:

With PAS in the contest, three-cornered fights between it, Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan would divide the anti-BN vote, as was shown in the Sarawak elections in May and two parliamentary by-elections last month.

“That is an issue which we are facing,” said a senior PKR leader in remarks quoted by Malay Mail Online. “It is quite obvious that it is a given” – that PAS would contest in seats held by PKR and DAP – and that would especially affect PKR.

“We do not want to be giving Umno any dominance, and also we would like to keep our seats,” the PKR source was quoted as saying.

The PAS decision to contest would also affect chances of forming a grand alliance of all opposition parties and a new party mooted by former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who seeks to oust Umno president and prime minister Najib Razak.


There are many issues in above extracts for us to consider, within the context of the next general election which is still some two years way.

Firstly, with Mahathir's new party, assuming it will be collaborating with the current remnants of Pakatan as a loose coalition against Ah Jib Gor's BN and new machai PAS, the divided cake (seat allocations) will become smaller for each of the 3 component parties of Pakatan Harapan - surely Mahathir's new party, Melayu-Bersatu or whatever it will call itself, will demand its share.

Thus, why wait for the newcomer to demand its share, and knowing Mahathir, it will want a lion's share of the Malay-dominated constituencies, which had been assigned (in 2008 and 2013 GEs) to PAS and PKR, and which in a snap election will in general go to PKR and Amanah. Why wait for Mahathir's Melayu-Bersatu or whatever-it'll-be-calling-itself to eat away PKR-Amanah's share?

Secondly, if PKR is still dreaming of having a sweet continued alliance with PAS, Pak Haji Hadi Awang has made it plainly and painfully clear to PKR that there won't be any such collaboration - for more, please read my previous post PAS to contest EVERY seat in Penang. So PKR will have no choice but to deal with guaranteed 3-corner fights with UMNO and PAS, whether in the proposed snap election or in GE-14.

Thus, I left a comment at RPK's post that PKR has to realize it's a case of "better sooner than later" in dealing with 3-corner fights involving PAS as the latter will not resile from its intention mentioned in PAS to contest EVERY seat in Penang.

Obviously PAS must have had a secret undertaking with Ah Jib Gor to be UMNO's spoiler in GE-14, or why would it have declared so pompously and rather illogically its intention to contest in each and every seat in Penang.

I personally believe PAS' immediate strategy is not to plan anything ambitious as it has finally realized that with its irrevocable break with DAP it will no longer enjoy its hitherto strong Chinese support and its covert ambition to win some 60 federal seats and thus to dominate the now-deceased Pakatan Rakyat and for a PAS man to be the Pakatan PM.

PAS in its revised but practical pragmatic political strategy seems happy enough to accept whatever assignments UMNO will be devolving to it, principally those to kacau DAP, PKR and Amanah in 3-corner fights for BN candidates to benefit, for whatever quid pro quo Najib might have promised Pak Haji.

Thus, if PKR strikes now together with DAP in a snap election it will fare better than in 2 years' time when the BN with its deep pockets can have time to prepare well so as to do far more damage. And let's not forget the involvement by then of Mahathir's new party - more members, less share.

Additionally there's a lot of ill will currently against Najib thus the adverse radioactive fallout will affect BN candidates. Given time, Malaysians will forget - yes, they forget so easily, the most striking example being Mahathir who's now looked upon as a new Moses to take us into the land of milk and honey.

But surely the most delicious fare on plate for us in a snap election will be the complete erasure of PAS from the political map of Penang state.

Currently PAS holds only one state seat in Permatang Pasir. It's a mixed race constituency, the type Mahathir in his PM days had wanted and got, and as sweet justice had benefited instead Pakatan Rakyat in 2008 and 2013 - blame it on those bloody Chinese who had before 2008 supported BN, wakakaka.

The ethnic ratio of Permatang Pasir's 22905 voters is 73% Malays: 25% Chinese: 2% Indians. Thus 25% Chinese equates to 5726 votes, quite a heft weightage of votes.

The current PAS ADUN is Hj Mohd Salleh Man who in the 2013 GE won 13,479 votes (66.3%) against UMNO's candidate Anuar Faisal Yahaya who obtained 6653 votes (32.7%), thus HJ Salleh enjoyed a winning majority of 6826. By the by, the turnout in 2013 was 88.8% meaning no mahjung game was set up, wakakaka.

If PAS does as it has avowed to do, contests against DAP and PKR, guess how many of the 25% Chinese voters in Permatang Pasir (approx 5700 votes) will cast their ballots for PAS as they did in 2013?

I dare say not one single Chinese vote will go to PAS, unless RTA moves his voting constituency to Permatang Pasir, wakakaka.

Many of the 5700 Chinese votes (assuming no mahjung game will be in play during the snap election, wakakaka) will go to the other parties, whether Amanah (hope it gets to contest in Permatang Pasir), PKR (alternative Pakatan contestant) or even UMNO.

Thus I predict in the snap election we will enjoy the complete annihilation of PAS in Penang.

Yes, PAS may pray for the downfall of DAP but god will see to the demise of a wicked PAS, at least in Penang.


12 comments:

  1. it is more wicked to spend perhaps about rm90.0 million to ensure that pas loses its only seat and meets its demise in the penang state legislative assembly. but it is ok hadi.. take it good spirit as a parting gift from lge before he goes to jail and his demise as the chief minister of penang.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. the political elimination of PAS from Penng is not the principal aim of the proposed snap election, but just a tasty delicious bonus side dish, like budu, wakakaka

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    2. hello matey.. it could also be the opposite i.e. a jiu hu eng chai for hadi.. ha ha.. you don't be too wicked la.. ha ha once more..

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    3. yes yes. if the people of Penang are fed with umno dedak.go on. distribute your umno dedak n see if Penang people will take it.
      AMARAN : Pemakanan Dedak Adalah Membahayakan untuk Otak dan Kesihatan

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  2. TGNA would be turning in his grave watching what Hadi has made Pas into.
    Aimlessly contesting in all 40 seats is clearly just throwing in spanners to help BN win. Pas #1 enemy was UMNO under TGNA but now UMNO is Pas #1 client under Hadi's job of Advisor. People who wear a turban and long white rope should not be used as a tool and talk like a clown in public. Wonder how the rest of Pas leaders can tahan him?

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  3. I blame PKR for fostering the objectionable political culture of artificially engineering elections for narrow partisan political objectives.
    They did it twice - in Permatang Pauh and then in the infamous Kajang Move.
    Now DAP wants to do it on a 40x scale with the entire State of Penang.

    A few years ago , you wrote a rather persuasive article in support of either Fixed Terms or allowing the Legislature to fully run its course.

    http://ktemoc.blogspot.my/2012/09/will-najib-go-for-full-term.html

    Are you doing a "Belakang Pusing" now ?


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I did NOT present any supporting points for a fixed government term a la the American presidential system, though I mentioned (but without giving reasons) why I supported Ambiga's proposal for fixed terms.

      In that 2012 post I stressed on the constitutional rights of the PM to either go for the full legal term of his office or to call an early election.

      Have I changed my mind on fixed terms? No I haven't but the point is that currently there is no such fixed trem. Thus I support LGE's constitutional rights, as I had Najib's back in 2012, to exercise his CM-terial prerogative to either serve his full legal term or call for an early election in Penang. I'm thus consistent in my stand on this issue.

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  4. Most Malays and Indians in Penang see the State government as a Chinese State Government.

    People are then split between those who have a favourable view of the state government or an unfavourable opinion.

    Right or wrong perception, that it is seen as a DAP Chinese administration is just an inescapable fact. Ramasamy and Rashid Haron are seen as no more than sidekicks or flunkeys.

    Bulldozing through a Snap election will just reinforce Lim Guan Eng's image as a "Tokong".

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    Replies
    1. Good observation and well said.

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  5. Wah...both Terence Netto and Nat Tan have really bashed Lim Guan Eng with regard to Penang Snap Polls.

    http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/350007
    http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/349993

    I don't agree with the Snap Polls either, but they are really laying it down too thick...

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    Replies
    1. Nat Tan has nurtured a long time dislike of the DAP so teh latter can do no right.

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  6. It is quite possible Snap Polls at this juncture could result in a seriously weakened and thoroughly DAP-Chinese (+ a few Indians) Penang State administration.

    Oh, DAP will retain its Chinese-majority seats, perhaps with even bigger majority.
    PKR could lose most , if not all its Malay-held seats in 3-cornered fights where PAS will siphon off a large chunk of the Malay non-UMNO votes.

    At that point, Lim Guan Eng would be left, still CM, but seriously diminished.

    In fact Lim Guan Eng would be left looking rather Stupid in that sort of aftermath, after being so insistent and dogmatic about calling Snap Polls.

    Just like those who were so gung-ho about starting World War 1, What the Hell was it all for ?

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