Friday, May 08, 2015

Permatang Pauh - Day after

Congratulations to Dr Wan Azizah for winning the Permatang Pauh by-election.

The turnout was 73.71% certainly higher than my guestimate of 65% but a lot lower than the 2013's 88.3%. Her majority this time is lower than the previous majority for her husband in 2013. However, she picked up more Malay votes from the younger generation, but lost some Chinese support.

In Rompin, it's more or less the same story except the winning candidate has been an UMNO man while the loser was a PAS candidate. Turnout dropped from the 2013's 85.0% to 74%. Winning majority dropped from 15,114 in 2013 to 8895. Again some Chinese votes swung back to BN-UMNO

Basically we have almost identical outcomes, with the respective favourites winning in their own stronghold.

Depending on which side you're on, you can interpret it to your own advantage, but I suspect MCA and Gerakan will be wanking away in front of Ah Jib Gor's office, crowing and cooing the Chinese have returned to the BN's fold. 

But have they? Was it hudud that turned them off? Or just invincible disdain for BN (my guess)? In Rompin we could say DAP wasn't there to help, but in Permatang Pauh ...?

So I eagerly await my matey Ong Kian Ming's erudite analysis of the by-elections.

But I reckon Ah Gib Jor will be extremely worried about Dr Wan picking up an extra 5% young Malay votes. Those are the new Heartland's votes. Maybe Ah Jib Gor will blame it on Dr Mahathir's undermining of his government, which is certainly a fair accusation, wakakaka.

More interestingly I like to hear Dr Mahathir's interpretation of the PP case against his previous interpretation of Rompin, wakakaka. I am sure His Imperial Majesty will come up with some words to Ah Jib Gor's discomfort, disadvantage and disgust, wakakaka again.

Two points on BN in PP campaigning - firstly, it has shot itself in the foot by sending in a racist Neanderthal to threaten PP residents with deprived developments if those hapless people failed to vote UMNO in. The bumbling idiot turned everyone off. I sometimes wonder at the mentality of UMNO for fostering such a goon to be among their leadership echelon.

Secondly, it failed to explain the GST properly and clearly to the people. There's lots of bullshit hurled against the GST. It didn't help when Dr M also criticized the consumption tax scheme, though I suspect his aim was more to undermine Najib than the GST itself, wakakaka.

Two points on PKR  in PP campaigning - firstly, the Pakatan coalition remains a problematic issue. But fortunately for Dr Wan, the Anwar appeal or cultism has enough inertia to see Dr Wan Azizah through to a winning position albeit with some small deficiencies. But how will Pakatan perform as a coalition in GE-14?

But I'm sure DAP is happy with Dr Wan's victory as the party sees her as a credible bulwark against a PAS leadership in Pakatan, especially as Opposition Leader in Federal Parliament.

Secondly, I wasn't joking about PKR's neglect and/or marginalization of Indians in my previous post
Indians, the 'Lost' in Permatang Pauh? 

Some didn't like what I have published, accusing me of attacking PKR. But face it (and don't bury your heads in the sand), PKR has a lot to do, a lot of catching up to do, to heal the wounds the party has inflicted on the Indians. It's probably due only to the discredited incompetent MIC that the Indian sector wasn't marshalled against PKR in PP in full significant force. Don't take the Indians for granted.


  1. I was on the ground during the campaign, and also watched and listened on the sidelines on polling day.
    There is a distinct lack of enthusiasm among the Chinese to vote for Pakatan this time. Even those who did turn up to vote and clearly still support PR, are unhappy.
    And you need to understand the root issue clearly - otherwise the wrong conclusions and actions will be taken. It revolves on the events surrounding the Hudud issue but Hudud itself is not even the biggest concern.

    Of course the Chinese do not want Hudud, but they mostly accept that PKR does not support Hudud. Tian Chua's statement can be interpreted in different ways, but it never got much attention either way.
    The central disenchantment is the Pakatan infighting , and how the coalition has effectively ceased to exist. "Hao Tsiao" is the Hokkien term they use in Penang.

    At this rate , DAP support among the Chinese will also be hurt, perhaps to a lesser extent by this , even though DAP has been brutally clear about its opposition to Hudud..

    On GST....the problem the government faces is not lack of explanations or bullshit or not thrown against GST. And , oh yes, there has been plenty of GST bullshit from the Government. The proof of the pudding is in the eating , as they say.

    How do you explain away the increase in grocery bills when people buy the same essential foods and household items as they did the previous month ?
    Is it bullshit when people are left with less or no savings left over, when they have really not changed their consumption pattern compared to the previous month ?

    To be fair, the price of new cars came down this month. On average, a few hundred ringgit off a list price of RM 80-100,000. A fraction of 1 percent. More for public relations purposes.
    I suspect the car distributors, who have heavy dependence on government cooperation via APs, licences etc. got arm-twisted into it by a BN government desperate to show some proof to earlier claims GST will "lead to lower prices".
    More Bullshit.

    I have to admit I personally are not much affected by GST. At my age, my consumption is simple, and money is not a problem.

    I'm getting so worked up on GST because I cannot stand all the Bullshit coming from the Government and "establishment" types living in their Ivory towers.

    1. let's be fair to gst. it' 6% meaning that replacing the previous 10% sst should result in those products becoming cheaper. admittedly those products which didn't have a sst would rise up in price, but overall the average outcome in pricing should be cheaper/lower.

      it's known that there are unscrupulous profiteering among malaysian retailers. and this is what should be dealt with rather than the gst itself. let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater

      meanwhile on the pakatan coalition I doubt it'll survive, ironically and especially should it come into power when greed/avarice/self-interests all rise up to split the shaky coalition asunder. if it now cannot agree on a pm-designate and a shadow cabinet it is merely delaying the inevitable squabbling over positions when it becomes the ruling coalition - that's when this or that unity bull will come into play/effect

      incidentally, "Hao Tsiao" comes from "Lu Tsiao" and the PAS-DAP acrimony, PAS-PKR rivalry and PKR-DAP tentative relation are results of "Lu Tsiao" - for example, Tian Chua is the "Lu Tsiao" kia who likes to backstab DAP because he's damn scared his Chinese section in PKR will become redundant and irrelevant

  2. Perhaps the Chinese vote is just an indication of the pragmatic approach of the average Chinese mindsets of what best serves their interests.
    Not based on passionate loyalty rooted in idealogy.. A kind of what BN vs PK candidate means to their own immediate short term interests as constituents..
    Short term gains-as pragmatic as it can get- but it may not mean that they will stay loyal to their chosen candidate from BN/UMNO.
    Come GE 14, these voters can just as easily swing back to PK if they think it ll help effect any change in the Governing status quo that is seen to be holding their enterprising achievements ,with no help from the government - as ransom.
    UMNO Ministers issuing boycott threats specifically pointing out the ethnic Chinese community, NGOs promoting hate mongering.etc etc.
    And most damning and resentful of all has to be , the deafening silence from the Government , and when there is a response, it is as if the behaviours are condoned or endorsed..
    Until BN particularly UMNO realizes that the Chinese can be an appreciative lot , but gives loyalty only when deserved or as gratitude repayment-remember 1999 when TDM lost a big chunk of the Malay electorate coz of a black eye incident and still retain 2 thirds because of what is arguably seen as a gratitude endorsement from the Chinese votes –many avoided financial upheaval ,and credited it to TDM—and they showed their appreciation in their voting.
    Promises means nothing to the average Chinese mindsets ,not taken seriously ,unless there is a built up of trust over years of dealings.
    “Action first talk later” is a very Chinese approach to many things.
    But at the rate UMNO/BN are going –playing up race/religion/ allowing ferocious or aggressive defending of the ethnic entitlement and racial supremacy with threats verging on murderous violence.
    All these troubles the Chinese electorate’s peace of mind and sense of security in the lack of consistency or assurances from the government.
    Chinese can put up with a lot of nonsense , but when the proverbial “Chinese Rice Bowl” is threatened- perceived or otherwise-they react defensively en-bloc to stave off the threat.
    So they will easily and instinctively revert to supporting PK. Chinese like to gamble- And like gambling with their vote, stakes are winning a sense of (not equality) but a sense of fairness / stability/ an environment where they have a better chance of advancing without perceived obstructions-not feel threatened as a minority.
    The negative perceptions which the UMNO led coalition is doing a damned good job of promoting.
    LGE/DAP knew that - and used it effectively during GE13 campaign in Penang.

    1. "pragmatic" - i dun know what is the definition for pragmatic, however base on yr take, i think the malay is more pragmatic, that is y they keep umno in power.

      "Chinese can be an appreciative lot" - i thot last election already proven umno dun need chinese vote to stay in power? n mahathir know best the kiasi character of the chinese (of that generation), the moment he mentioned hudud, 513 n street anarchist, the chinese will rush to vote umno. appreciate my kok.

      "avoided financial upheaval" - fuk la the stupid chinese, mahathir is the one that bring msia into financial turmoil, he act to protect his family n cronies at the expense of every msian.

      "LGE/DAP knew that" - i think most likely the chinese finally wake up from their (our) hallucination knowing that bn is nothing but a shit blood sucker. n the new generation is not as kiasi as their old man generation. the umno supremacy oso kill off the last hope of chinese toward mca/gerakan. lge/dap only make sense strategy is to work with prk/pas, n less koktalk on chinese this malay that.

  3. I would make my analysis very simple. There is a huge increase for PAS in Rompin. Thus, a ‘YES’ for hudud.

    PKR is ‘NOT’ opposed to hudud CONCEPT.

    The young Malays in Permatang Pauh are saying ‘YES’ to hudud.

    UMNO did not say ‘NO’ to hudud.

    My conclusion is the majority of Rompin and Permatang Pauh Malays, young and old, are saying YES to hudud.

    1. PAS has achieved an increase in its votes in Rompin BUT and a BIG BUT it didn't win so I would say the majority of Malays do NOT support hudud.

      In PP the winner is a PKR candidate. While PKR has tap-danced away from a firm stand for hudud, a PKR win does NOT mean it is for hudud

      The verdict is still out lah, kawan

    2. i think most chinese oso support hudud, they continue to vote pakatan, only the indian is a usual the sneaky one (ha trademark) wakaka, more malay oppose hudud than support, the election result clearly say rompin, more malay reject the hudud advocate, in pp, more malay support a candidate that dun support pas version of hudud wakaka.

    3. i think you should read and internalise hasan's assumptions. can you contest and proof his assumptions are wrong and particularly umno is not supporting hudud?

    4. Senang cakap kita tunggu nanti pembentangan hudud di Parlimen lah, kawan?

    5. "dun support pas version of hudud wakaka"

      My impression of PKR’s controversy with PAS on hudud is more over manual and procedures and hudud penalties but not over principle, faith and rights?

    6. very very few muslims/malays would dare openly oppose hudud, but in their inner thoughts and assessment might not support the islamic code of penalty word for word, act for act.

      in the earlier days of islam (medieval period) the objective of legal punishment was based on the circumstances existing then, where for example, apostasy would be akin to treason (betrayal of the state) and hence the penalty would be death.

      would the circumstances of today be the same? I doubt so but alas, islamic leaders closed the gates of ijtihad 400 years ago, preventing the exercise of critical thinking and independent judgment, where then ulama "think" or/and "interpret" (decide) for them, and by golly, woe be unto them if they try to argue with the ulama, regardless of how stupid some ulama might be

      under such circumstances (where some ulama could be stupid, ignorant and ultra rightwing), who would really want to support hudud, when lives and limbs are dependent on the whims and fancies of such ulama as have been horrendously seen in Afghanistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia

      looking at secular legal code of punishment, today most nations (Western Europe, Aus, NZ, and in Asia, Hong Kong, Philippines, Timor Leste) have gotten rid of capital punishment as the punishment is deemed unnecessary, barbaric, state-sanctioned murder of a human being, and for the religious, usurping the prerogative of God

    7. KT… I am not against modernization or a secular government. Believe me, I go to the discotheque but I don’t drink liquor, and I don’t dance (I don’t smoke pot, I don’t gamble and I don’t fornicate) but just to enjoy the music and the rowdy environment with my gang (non malay inclusive), whenever I feel like it. My non-malay/muslim friends can drink anything in my presence. If any one wants to stigmatize me as a bad muslim – I just don’t give a damn. Got my drift?

      Now, let’s just discuss just these two verses below - the Quran says:

      “The [unmarried] woman or [unmarried] man found guilty of sexual intercourse - lash each one of them with a hundred lashes, and do not be taken by pity for them in the religion of Allah, if you should believe in Allah and the Last Day. And let a group of the believers witness their punishment.”

      “It is not for a believing man or a believing woman, when Allah and His Messenger have decided a matter, that they should [thereafter] have any choice about their affair. And whoever disobeys Allah and His Messenger has certainly strayed into clear error.”

      As Tun Arifin Zakaria said, let’s not use the controversial word “hudud”. Granted! So, for discussion sake, I would use the term as Noah Feldman put it, “the rights of God”.

      For the past 20 years, about 90% of the believers in the East Coast have requested PAS to codify the above “rights of God” into law of the state. This is legally provided for under Article 76 of our FC.

      It does not matter whether that “rights of God” would get the nod of the lawmakers or not. Because, regardless of whether it would be approved by the lawmakers or not, the 90% believers have already complied to that particular verse – when a matter has been decided by Allah and His Messenger to have any option about their decisions.

      Say, in the likely event (I think) that the new law (don’t call it hudud – just call it a new law) is constitutionalized by Parliament; and, is only applicable to muslims, ALL of us whether we like it or not must accept and obey it, even though it may seem as against secularism/progress/modernity and transgressing the rights of man or humanity?

    8. what happens when a non Muslim man fornicates with a Muslim woman and both are caught a la tangkap basah?

    9. Alahai kawan... sudah gaharu cendana pula, sudah tahu bertanya pula.. wakakaka...

      Kau amend lah ckit Artcile 8 of FC itu... bisa diatur lah Pak KT... kalau hendak seribu daya... wakakaka again.

  4. "what happens when a non Muslim man fornicates with a Muslim woman and both are caught a la tangkap basah?"

    There is nothing theoretical about the question , as well as the answer.
    It happens in actual fact in Malaysia, every now and then.

    Then answer is the Non-Muslim cannot be charged in Syariah court - it is clearly stated in the Malaysian Constitution, and he walks away without any legal liability.

    However, there is a sting to it. As and when the Muslim accused is charged in Syariah court for Khalwat, the Non-Muslim partner will be named in the charge...

    xxxxx Bin or Binti yyyyy charged with commiting Khalwat with Kay Tee Moc under section xxx Syariah enactment.

    In that way the Non-Muslim will be named and shamed, which may damage their reputation or marital relationship if they are married.

    1. so it should be okay if Kay Tee Moc is NOT married? Phew!

      BUUUT still, the non Muslim Kay Tee Moc will be affected by syariah-hudud law in that he will be named publicly (in teh syariah court), when civil law wouldn't do that. Alamak, so how man?

    2. Kalo Ibuk Kay Tee udah punyai suami kenapa mau punya hubungan intim sama lelaki muslim? Kenapa cari masaalah? Pasti ribut dan berantakan rumah-tangga bila kamu ditangkap basah. Perceraian bisa berlaku. Wakakaka…

      Anyway, the issue that you raised is not a primary issue i.e. on faith (Article 11 of the FC). I see it as more of a secondary issue i.e. on process and procedures. Lebih mudah untuk diselesaikan oleh hukum.

  5. Critics of 1MDB are barking at the wrong tree about this latest saga of TH, buying a piece of land for 188.5 million at TRX.

    These barking brainless herd of animal mentality is going to get us nowhere.For heaven's sake please grow up.What is 188.5 million going to do to 1MDB,with a whopping massive debt of 42 billion.A pin dropping into the bin,I guess.If the latest critics of this TH saga have nothing else better to do,go screw the donkeys or jump into the bushes and shiok sendiri..