How Takaichi’s Big Mouth Allows China To Make Strategic Moves

How Takaichi’s Big Mouth Allows China To Make Strategic Moves


November 26th, 2025 by financetwitter


Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, has pledged to make the country “strong and prosperous” again. Her role model was Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s first female prime minister and “Iron Lady.” Her political mentor in Japan was Abe Shinzō, who was assassinated in 2022. During her run for her party’s leadership, Takaichi focused mainly on Japan’s economy and its defense.

However, despite her success – third attempt at the LDP presidency – to the growing popularity of conservative nationalism in Japan, she may have bitten off more than she can chew with her aggressive brand of conservative politics. She appears to have poked the red dragon the wrong way as China is escalating a hostility she provoked on November 7.

Beijing reacted angrily after the Japanese new premier said an attack on Taiwan could trigger the deployment of her country’s self-defence forces. While Japan’s post-war constitution forbids it from using force as a means of settling international disputes, a 2015 law – passed during Abe administration – permits it to exercise self-defence in certain situations, even if it is not directly under attack.


In retaliation, the Chinese consul general in Osaka, Xue Jian, said in a post on X – “We have no choice but cut off that dirty neck that has been lunged at us without hesitation. Are you ready?” Whatever vows to build “constructive and stable” relations between both countries after Takaichi’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea has vaporised.

Takaichi, with hawkish views on China, may not realize (or pretends to be ignorant) that his mentor’s 2015 law was drafted to most likely involve Japanese support for US-led military action in the region. Will Japan under her administration unilaterally go to war with China if the Chinese suddenly invade Taiwan, even if the U.S. somehow decides not to participate?


Insisting that Japan could exercise its right to collective self-defence – or coming to the aid of an ally – Takaichi said Tokyo had to “anticipate a worst-case scenario” in the Taiwan Strait. But if China attacks only Taiwan without firing a single shot at Japan, then Tokyo cannot claim self-defence if it starts attacking China under the pretext of defending Taiwan. That would be a declaration of war on China.


Thanks to her big mouth, Beijing has told Chinese tourists to boycott Japan. Many tourism and retail businesses in Japan rely heavily on Chinese visitors, who spend more on average than other foreign tourists on everything from sushi to skincare. Some hotels, designer clothes shops and even pharmacies have Mandarin-speaking assistants, while department stores often have signs in Chinese.

China is the biggest source of tourists to the archipelago, with almost 7.5 million visitors in the first nine months of 2025 – a quarter of all foreign tourists, according to official Japanese figures. Last year, each Chinese tourist spent on average 22% more than other visitors. Attracted by a weak yen, they splashed out the equivalent of US$3.7 billion in the third quarter alone.

Tokyo tried to downplay the impact on its tourism, even though it could lose as much as US$1.2 billion in visitor spending between now and the end of 2025. Most Chinese airlines, as well as Cathay Pacific Airways, are waiving cancellation fees on tickets to Japan, accelerating cancellations. If mainland Chinese visitors continue to stay away through 2026, the cumulative hit could reach as much as US$9 billion.


A day after China issued a travel ban for Japan, the Takaichi cabinet quickly dispatched a senior foreign ministry official to Beijing in an attempt to ease tensions, but the trip yielded no results. That alone was sufficient to suggest that the economic impact on Japan’s tourism sector is serious as retail and tourism stocks subsequently plunged after about 500,000 people have cancelled flights.



Another hammer hitting the Japanese economy was China’s ban on all Japanese seafood imports, just months after it partly lifted a previous ban issued in 2023 as a result of Japan’s decision to release wastewater from the damaged and decommissioned Fukushima nuclear plant. Before the 2023 ban, the Chinese market – including Hong Kong – accounted for more than one-fifth of Japan’s exports.

Moves to embarrass her including photos of a senior Japanese official appearing to “bow” before his Chinese counterpart. The photos, which have gone viral on Chinese social media, show Masaaki Kanai, head of the Japanese Foreign Ministry’s Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, standing with his counterpart, Liu Jinsong, following their talks last Tuesday at the Chinese Foreign Ministry.


The humiliation saw Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minou Kihara scrambled to complain that the Japanese side had not been informed about press coverage of the post-meeting scenes, which show Liu, head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s Asian Affairs Department, with his hands in his pockets, refusing to shake hands with the Japanese senior diplomat– a show of disrespect to Japan.

Economic retaliation was just one of many weapons in Beijing’s toolbox. Now, President Xi Jinping’s government is escalating the dispute to the United Nations, a move aimed at pressuring all countries to side with China’s stance on any future conflict over Taiwan – or stay out of its way. In a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Fu Cong – China’s envoy to the global body – accused Takaichi of violating international law with her comment.

“If Japan dared to intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait, it would be an act of aggression. China will resolutely exercise its right of self-defense under the UN Charter and international law and firmly defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” – Fu wrote. On the surface, the letter of complaint might look lame and childish. But it was a clever strategic and a pre-emptive move.




The letter could be the first step of China’s strategy to establish the “legal ground” and narrative for a potential military move in the future, including attacking Japanese assets in a conflict. Beijing wanted to refresh the memory of Japan’s wartime aggression in World War 2, therefore, the Chinese justification to strike first at Japanin the event of an invasion of Taiwan, or any other conflicts for that matter.

Turning the tables on Prime Minister Takaichi, Beijing is accusing her government of returning to a dangerous path of “militarism”, henceinvoking the right to self-defense and equating a Japanese intervention as an act of aggression – reminding the world about the previous brutality of the Imperial Japanese Armed Forces that had killed an estimated 20 million Chinese people.

While it isn’t a formal resolution requiring member states to vote, the UN letter forces every country to consider where it stands on the issue. Even if other countries choose to abstain or refuse to vote, silence for China is good enough as it means acquiescence and acceptance. Beijing is effectively asserting no country – including the US – should come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of an invasion.


It was not a coincidence that last Friday, the Chinese Embassy in Japan deliberately posted on X that China would have the right to carry out “direct military action” without needing authorization from the UN Security Council if Japan took any step toward renewed aggression. That post cited UN Charter clauses regarding “enemy states” during the Second World War.

Exactly why must Takaichi open her big mouth when even the military superpower – United States – has refrained from committing military action to directly defend Taiwan? She was probably too eager to prove to U.S. President Donald Trump that Japan was a reliable – and an obedient – ally. Perhaps she wanted to show – even brag – that she has a special bond with Trump.



Domestically, it was certainly a quick tactic to improve popularity – her approval rating jumped to 69.9%, up 5.5 percentage points from the previous poll conducted shortly after she took office late last month. However, China too has capitalized on Takaichi’s “military aggression” to boost domestic nationalism while also serving to deter any other countries from speaking out on Taiwan.


By getting other states to express support for China’s position at the UN, China is trying to project legitimacy of its position via strength by numbers. To make sure the U.S. gets the message, Mr Xi purposely called Mr Trump to express not only China’s displeasure, but to tell the U.S. president that it was Takaichi who started the provocation of equating Taiwan’s security as Japan’s security.

The call on Monday to Trump was also to test Washington’s stance. The president refused to swallow the hook, line and sinker by keeping silence, refusing to support Japan or yielding to Chinese pressure to shift decades of American support for Taiwan. If Donald Trump openly supports Takaichi, then the U.S. president’s plan to travel to Beijing next April could be jeopardised.

But there’s more. Mr. Xi told Mr. Trump that “China and the U.S. fought side by side against fascism and militarism, hence, they should work together to safeguard the achievements of the victory in World War II.” Trump would be accused of being a traitor who supports Japanese brutality. Approximately 111,606 Americans were killed or missing in the war against Japan, with another 253,142 wounded.


Militarily, three Chinese warships sailed past a Japanese island four days after Takaichi’s remark, and four Chinese armed coast guard ships have since passed close to Japanese-administered islands north of Taiwan. Japan, in defiance, decided to deploy missiles on Yonaguni Island, east of Taiwan. Unless Takaichi was serious about defending Taiwan, the reckless move would put Yonaguni as Chinese new target.



If China’s past economic punishments against South Korea and Australia are any indicator, the China-Japan bilateral relations may not improve in the near term. While Beijing has demanded that Takaichi retract her statement on Taiwan, the Japanese prime minister can’t even if she wanted to. In order not to lose face, she could only say that she would avoid discussing “specific” scenarios in the future.

Takaichi is trapped by her own idiotic rhetoric. The Trump administration is “far more reluctant” to sacrifice blood and treasure on the Taiwan question than his predecessors, preferring instead to focus on the trade relationship between Washington and Beijing. And China has not even banned exports of rare earth materials to Japan, which could create a bigger chaos to car production and other industries.


Unless she retracts her statements regarding Taiwan, the disputes most likely will persist until a political change brought in a new leader. Australia’s trade with China has gradually returned to normal since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s election in 2022. Canada is the latest country to start repairing relations under new Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Perhaps Prime Minister Takaichi has forgotten that her coalition is in the minority in parliament. If she fails to secure allies and opposition parties support for her policies in the next two months, it could lead to a general election for the House of Representatives, which would open a window of opportunity for a new prime minister, and a turnaround in China-Japan relations.