Kedah set to become another PAS stronghold

FMT:

Kedah set to become another PAS stronghold

The north will be firmly green after the state elections later this year and Pakatan Harapan faces a rout.

Kedah is set to become another PAS stronghold in the coming state elections. This means that Kelantan, Terengganu, Perlis and Kedah will all have PAS-led governments, leading to potential new dynamics in the Malaysian political landscape.

With Perikatan Nasional (PN) achieving 55.96% of the aggregate vote in federal seats in Kedah during the last general election, there are no visible factors that suggest the vote will be any different during the coming state elections. If that is the case then a PN coalition government will command a two-thirds majority in the new legislative assembly.


A turbulent 5 years in the state assembly

In 2018, Pakatan Harapan with Mukhriz Mahathir at the helm in Kedah, managed to win 18 seats in the 36-seat assembly. Umno, which had governed through the Barisan Nasional, lost 17 seats, with nine seats going to Pakatan Harapan (PH) and eight to PAS, giving them 15 seats. Umno was left with only three seats.

Mukhriz was nevertheless invited to form a government. Without any majority, the Mukhriz administration was doomed to instability from the beginning of its term in government.

The changing party affiliations within the Kedah state assembly have been primarily the result of federal events. The Sheraton Move, which brought down the PH administration in February 2020, put Mukhriz in an untenable position as menteri besar. He stayed in office with the support of assemblymen until Robert Ling, the Sidam representative, and Azman Nasrudin, the Lunas representative, crossed the floor to become independents, and later joined Bersatu.

Mukhriz resigned in May 2020, leading to PAS forming an alliance with Bersatu and Sanusi Nor becoming the new menteri besar.

The current assembly is made up of 21 PN assemblymen, where 15 are from PAS and six are from Bersatu. Umno and Pejuang have two assemblymen each and PH has 10, five of whom are from PKR, three from Amanah and two from DAP.

One seat, Gurun, became vacant when Johari Abdul became the Dewan Rakyat speaker.


A wipeout for Umno and PH

PN is likely to win at least 26 seats in the coming state election. It will hold on to its traditional seats, wrest the two Pejuang seats – Jitra and Anak Bukit – and two Umno seats – Sungai Tiang and Guar Chempedak. Then it will depend upon how many PH seats it can win, where seats like Ayer Hangat, Kota Siputeh, Bukit Kayu Hitam, Kubang Rotan, Pengkalan Kundor, Bukit Selambau, Kulim, and Bandar Baharu will all be in play.

In the most optimistic scenario for PN, it could win 32 seats in the new assembly, leaving PH with three. If PH can hold onto the seats in play, then it can return to the assembly with around 10 members. PH should hold Suka Menanti and Kota Darul Aman, and win back Lunas and Gurun, at a minimum.


Electoral factors pertaining to Kedah

Umno’s influence in Kedah was almost wiped out in the 2018 state elections, where it lost the government and retained only three seats. Consequently, Umno should not become a major factor in the elections, unless PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim allocates Umno more than two or three seats to contest. If Umno is given three or more seats, it will most probably backfire badly on PH.

PAS has created and nurtured many communities throughout Kedah, which have their own schools, mosques, shops and businesses. These communities are closely knit and should turn out in force to vote. It is going to be much more difficult for PH and Umno to get voters to the polling booths.

The quietness surrounding the criminal charges against former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin will put the corruption issues in the background during the election. If PH brings up the issue during campaigning, it could very likely backfire.

There are no comprehensive polling details that indicate the support for PN during the last federal election is much different from what it is now. This indicates an electoral wipeout for PH-Umno in Kedah.

The major issue that will hit the PH-Umno alliance is the failure to alleviate cost of living and income issues. There are lots of scattered pockets of poverty in Kedah, where PH may find voter backlashes out of anger that fundamental cost of living issues have not been tackled. The latest rise in interest rates by Bank Negara Malaysia will not help.

It’s very unlikely that race and religious issues will play any major role in the coming campaign. Finally, the current menteri besar, Sanusi, has been playing up the issue of Putrajaya not cooperating with Kedah. If this narrative gets through to voters during the campaign, it will go against the Anwar “persona” on the hustings.


Implications on national political dynamics

With PAS in control of five northern states covering the bulk of the Malay heartlands as a block, these states can become much more assertive in federal-state relations. If state menteris besar cooperate en bloc, they will be able to extract many concessions from the federal government. We will also see Anwar’s administration swing around to being much more Malay-centric after the coming state elections.

The coming state elections are very important towards building a new powerbase for PAS to make demands upon the federal government, similar to the way Islamists have gained concessions from the central government in Indonesia over the last decade. This is something the new generation of PAS leaders will use as leverage.