PH, PN can do well with state polls after GE15, says analyst
Separate state and federal elections would benefit the opposition bloc, says an analyst.
PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional stand to gain by delaying the dissolution of the state assemblies they control should a parliamentary general election be held soon, says a political scientist.
Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University said holding separate federal and state elections would capture voters’ moods at different times, hence tending to benefit different parties.
“It will be a good move for these coalitions as this would be consistent with their rejection of GE15 being held during the monsoon season, which is an increasingly unpopular notion among the public,” he said.
He told FMT that PH and PN would be able to better prepare for state elections, including identifying ‘black areas’ by studying the GE15 voting patterns, referring to areas where they lack support.
Wong said PH and PN could also gain public favour if they outdid Barisan Nasional in assisting the people during the year-end floods.
The meteorological department has forecast heavy monsoonal rain in Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang from November to December and in Johor, Sabah and Sarawak from December to January.
Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim said on Wednesday that the PH-led state governments of Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang would not dissolve their state assemblies should GE15 be held soon. This was to allow the state leaders to focus on flood preparations and in helping the victims.
On Thursday, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man also said states controlled by his party would not dissolve their legislative assemblies simultaneously with Parliament.
Wong said serious floods during GE15 might prompt voters to punish BN, to the benefit of PH in the west coast states, PN in Kelantan and Terengganu, and both coalitions in Perlis, Kedah and Pahang.
However, if federal and state elections are held jointly, PH could expect to retain Selangor and Penang, although by a reduced majority, but Negeri Sembilan could fare worse.
Wong said PAS would have better chances to defend Kelantan and Terengganu in 2023 if BN bore the brunt of public wrath over holding elections during the monsoon season.
He said PH and PN should time their state polls for June or July as BN’s “honeymoon period” would have worn off by then.
Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said later state elections would give the opposition a chance to recover the confidence of voters for having lost power after a 22-month stint in Putrajaya.
As for PN, he said its two component parties would face an uphill battle in attracting votes due to Bersatu’s reputation of housing party hoppers and PAS’ weak performance in government.
PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional stand to gain by delaying the dissolution of the state assemblies they control should a parliamentary general election be held soon, says a political scientist.
Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University said holding separate federal and state elections would capture voters’ moods at different times, hence tending to benefit different parties.
“It will be a good move for these coalitions as this would be consistent with their rejection of GE15 being held during the monsoon season, which is an increasingly unpopular notion among the public,” he said.
He told FMT that PH and PN would be able to better prepare for state elections, including identifying ‘black areas’ by studying the GE15 voting patterns, referring to areas where they lack support.
Wong said PH and PN could also gain public favour if they outdid Barisan Nasional in assisting the people during the year-end floods.
The meteorological department has forecast heavy monsoonal rain in Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang from November to December and in Johor, Sabah and Sarawak from December to January.
Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim said on Wednesday that the PH-led state governments of Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang would not dissolve their state assemblies should GE15 be held soon. This was to allow the state leaders to focus on flood preparations and in helping the victims.
On Thursday, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man also said states controlled by his party would not dissolve their legislative assemblies simultaneously with Parliament.
Wong said serious floods during GE15 might prompt voters to punish BN, to the benefit of PH in the west coast states, PN in Kelantan and Terengganu, and both coalitions in Perlis, Kedah and Pahang.
However, if federal and state elections are held jointly, PH could expect to retain Selangor and Penang, although by a reduced majority, but Negeri Sembilan could fare worse.
Wong said PAS would have better chances to defend Kelantan and Terengganu in 2023 if BN bore the brunt of public wrath over holding elections during the monsoon season.
He said PH and PN should time their state polls for June or July as BN’s “honeymoon period” would have worn off by then.
Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said later state elections would give the opposition a chance to recover the confidence of voters for having lost power after a 22-month stint in Putrajaya.
As for PN, he said its two component parties would face an uphill battle in attracting votes due to Bersatu’s reputation of housing party hoppers and PAS’ weak performance in government.
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