Picture this 2013 (could be earlier) scenario:
Anwar Ibrahim is in jail after being found guilty of sodomy in 2011. Due to his conviction he lost his MP status and wasn’t allowed to stand again in Permatang Pauh in the 2013 general election. Following Anwar’s grief, Azmin Ali rose to be the President of PKR.
MCLM’s offer of 30 candidates were rejected by PKR but accepted by KITA – two on MCLM’s list were Haris Ibrahim and RPK wakakaka (kaytee's choice).
Kayveas applied to join DAP 3 months before the general election but was informed politely that due to pre-election preparation, his application could only be assessed after the election wakakaka.
Pakatan wins the general election with a clear majority.
Its 120 MPs are from PAS (35), DAP-SNAP (35), PKR (25), KITA (25).
All leaders and leading personalities from the three Pakatan component parties retain their seats, with new comers like Zaid, Haris and RPK winning new ones.
To name a few luminaries, there are the two Pak Hajis, Mat Sabu and Mohamad Nizar Jamaluddin etc from PAS, Karpal Singh, Tunku Aziz, Khir, Lim Snr and Jnr, etc from DAP, Azmin Ali, Nurul Izzah, Khalid Ibrahim etc from PKR, and Zaid Ibrahim, Haris Ibrahim and RPK, etc from KITA.
Who should be PM?
If Anwar was around, he would be a natural candidate of compromise, but alas he isn’t even a MP. Yes, there will be steps to review the judicial process that led to his imprisonment or even a royal pardon, but royal pardons will require the recommendation of a PM, so we are back to Square One, namely, who shall be PM (to make that recommendation)?
Anyway, all above regarding Anwar requires time – Pakatan has to nominate a PM pronto, so …who?
Pak Haji Hadi Awang? He loves to be PM, I bet … but I doubt he will be accepted by DAP, PKR or KITA.
Mat Sabu? Maybe, with about, say, 25 to 35% probability* of acceptance.
* all probability ratings in this post are abitrarily made by kaytee
Nizar? High probability of about 70% acceptance, but may not even be offered by PAS itself. Besides, PKR will no doubt object strenuously.
Karpal, Lim Jnr, Lim Snr? Sorry, all no can do lah. Malaysia is not ready yet for a non-Malay PM, for the following reasons:
(a) more than 60% of the population are Malays, with many already poisoned by UMNO-Perkasa-Pembela Triad. It’s unlikely they’ll accept a non as a PM, full stop!
(b) the new Pakatan government cannot afford the disruption to running the nation that is likely to be caused by the Triad sabotage bullshit a la Christian PM, Christian nation, Christian conversion – the black sabo propaganda will be inevitable if Pakatan appoints a non as the PM, even assuming for a minute that PAS could be persuaded to accept it.
(c) the Agong and the Rulers' Council may not feel comfy with a non-Muslim PM, and may delay giving his royal consent to the appointment
Tunku Aziz (moved from being senator to standing successfully as a federal candidate) may be a faint possibility but at an odds of 20% acceptance by others. Khir? Too young.
Any good candidate from SNAP?
Azmin Ali? Puhleeeze lah – if I so much as smell this, Pakatan can forget my vote wakakaka. Besides, he hardly has the persona, knowledge and maturity to be PM. I can bet that both the DAP and PAS won’t accept him as a PM candidate – maybe he needs to first say sorry to SNAP and KITA wakakaka.
Nurul Izzah? C’mon, she’s sweet but in 2013? Like Khir she’s too bloody young. Sorry, being the daughter of Anwar is not an automatic free pass.
Dr Wan Azizah? She won’t be eligible to stand in 2013, and even if the election laws are changed by the new Pakatan government, it still requires time, something the new ruling party cannot afford to wait to appoint a PM.
What about the senatorial backdoor? Sorry, no can do, as in a Westminster democracy, the PM appointment requires a fully elected MP, not an unelected senator.
Khalid Ibrahim? Not bad, and with a likely odds of 60%. He'll PKR's best candidate - Azmin eat your heart out, wakakaka.
;-) That leaves us with Zaid Ibrahim, Haris Ibrahim and RPK.
I let you work it out whether one of these three, and which one, has prime ministerial bearings, know-how, skills and acceptability to the other Pakatan component parties.
I know who my choice is ;-)