Journalist Yong Kai Ping wrote (only relevant extracts):
Five months ago, Umno was defeated at Permatang Pauh - dubbed as the mother of all by-elections - which saw PKR de facto leader Anwar knocking out his opponent from his former party with an even bigger margin.
The seat was vacated by PKR president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail to pave the way for her husband to make a triumphant return to Parliament.
I disagree that ... (i) the PP by-election had been the Mother of All By-elections, and (ii) the Kuala Terengganu by-election will be a do-or-die battle for Najib.
On the PP by-election - Though the PKR candidate was undoubtedly of humongous profile and the DPM’s direct Nemesis, and his defeat at that by-election would have been a morale-boosting coup of Mt Everest proportion for UMNO, no one really expected Anwar Ibrahim to lose in his own backyard, least of all UMNO leaders.
Such had been the expected PKR victory that one UMNO leader even suggested the BN (meaning UMNO) boycott the PP by-election ... which would have unfairly denied us of the ensuing excitement and pleasure of a carnival-like few weeks ...
... including and especially PKR's Gobala & sons' entertaining grandstanding stopping of buses supposedly carrying phantom voters - only problem about Gobala's 'phantom' voters was that 'they' remain as 'phantoms', unseen, unidentified and uncaught and only seen by Gobala's eyes wakakakakaka.
The UMNO’s aim then was realistically limited to reducing Anwar’s majority (as compared to his wife’s winning majority). If achieved, my God, how UMNO would have crowed.
Mind you, initially there were deep worries in the PKR camp, as the UMNO video showing the oath-taking by the alleged sodomy victim Saiful affected those voters of deep religious conviction, who had really wanted to support and vote for Anwar but who were very much disturbed by Anwar’s refusal to accept the oath-taking challenge.
The oath-taking challenge was on the advice of a former State Mufti of high repute, thus when the PKR shipped in former Indonesian President Abdul Rahman Wahid (or Gus Dur as he is more popularly known) to attempt to rubbish the act of oath taking by a Muslim (and thus explain why Anwar won't take the oath), the desired result wasn’t forthcoming.
The voters (those of deep religious conviction) were actually swaying ..... until PKR pulled a rabbit out of the hat at the eleventh hour, a ‘rabbit’ by the name of Ramlang Porigi, a minor official at the National Mosque who destroyed Saiful’s oath-taking by the merest of explanation ... that Saiful had mispronounced an Arabic word during the oath-taking.
"I tawt I taw a puddy tat!" wakakakakaka.
Indeed, ‘twas the straw that the troubled voters had been praying for to satisfy their religious conscience. Anwar romped home as expected and with an even greater majority ... though some PKR supporters screamed blue murder at the Election Commission for cheating because the UMNO candidate didn’t lose his deposit. Alas, you just can’t please everyone ;-)
Now, why did I diagree with journalist Yong Kai Ping who said that the Kuala Terengganu by-election will be a do-or-die battle for Najib. Just read on please ...
On Boxing Day, my matey Kian Ming also wrote in Malaysiakini the article Sept 16 gone, what now for Anwar?
Of course he made mention of Anwar’s half past six 916 (kaytee’s words, Kian Ming didn’t use this phrase, though I wonder whether he wishes he did or had dared to wakakaka). But let me zoom in on a couple of Kian Ming’s paragraphs in that article, namely:
The BN not only has to defend its seats in the two by-elections (it is almost certain that Kurup’s appeal in Pensiangan will not go through) and the state of Sarawak, but they have to do so in a way which reflects that its popularity is not on the wane among these key constituents.
In other words, it will not be sufficient for the BN to retain the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat; it also needs to win it by a bigger margin than in 2008.
I respectfully disagree with Kian Ming.
The BN or UMNO will be blooming lucky to retain the seat. If it wins by just one single vote it can crowed as much as it likes because that will be truly be a Mt Everest-ish achievement. And bugger the need to prove to the Malay electorate that it still retains their confidence. The electorate generally has poor memory anyway and should be okay by 2013.
Yes, on the basis of what had happened since 08 March 08, PAS should win easily, so UMNO will be very very lucky to win Kuala Terengganu.
Let’s look at the score sheet for Kuala Terengganu federal constituency:
Registered voters = 80K
2008 turnout = 81% (humongous by Malaysian standards)
2008 winning majority = 628 (for UMNO, with an Independent winning 685)
2004 winning majority = 1933 (for UMNO)
As we can see, UMNO's winning majority in 2004 has been drastically whittled down by PAS. I believe it will be hard for UMNO to hold on to the seat.
Not only does the tsunamic force still have momentum, which the BN has thus far done buggerall to check or neutralize, some swaying voters (Chinese, Indians and others = 11.7% = over 9,000 votes) are seeing a post 08 March 08 situation where the lie of the political landscape has changed unbelievably. This may influence/alter their decision for the coming by-election.
… which has been why I believe UMNO will be lucky to win by any margin, let alone a bigger margin than what it did in March this year. Beggars can’t be choosers – a win will be a grateful win for UMNO.
And if UMNO loses, as it logically should, Najib will still be around (and probably as PM by March), so it's not a win-or-lose battle at this by-election ... much as some people may want to mythologize it as such wakakaka.
Alas for UMNO, it can’t play on PAS’s hudud posturing as it is a double edged sword for a Malay party, which even and especially Anwar Ibrahim rather not know nor comment on wakakaka.
The MCA is attempting to goad DAP on this issue, though the latter has already made its position clear.
But I believe PAS should win comfortably, unless like PKR, UMNO can also pull a rabbit out of the hat at the eleventh hour ;-)
Apart from the above reasons, I am betting on a PAS win (despite my strong objections to its hudud aspirations and intentions) because its President, Pak Haji Hadi Awang has had a divine revelation Alhamdulillah …
… he told a ceramah at Wakaf Mempelam in Kuala Teregganu on Friday night that he had a message from Allah swt through a dream that he was to field Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut as the PAS candidate for the by-election.
Surely then the logical extrapolation must be that PAS will win with a candidate selected perosnally by Allah swt.
Amin! And who is kaytee to argue against such divine revelation ;-)
Guess UMNO is well and truly f* - wakakakakaka.
historically, how many by-elections in Peninsular Malaysia were won by the opposition? I dont know but someone told me BN hadnt lost one! Dont know how true it is but I agree with you that Najib will still be the PM in March win or lose unless there is divine intervention.
ReplyDeleteBTW, I dont trust Najib one bit. Never forget what he said just prior to Operation lalang and his tenure as Defence Minister does not inspire confidence either.
"The voters (those of deep religious conviction) were actually swaying ..... until PKR pulled a rabbit out of the hat at the eleventh hour, a ‘rabbit’ by the name of Ramlang Porigi, a minor official at the National Mosque who destroyed Saiful’s oath-taking by the merest of explanation ... that Saiful had mispronounced an Arabic word during the oath-taking."
ReplyDeleteI am not an expert on the heartland by any stretch of the imagination, but I find this theory unconvincing. Can you substantiate it somehow?
By my admittedly unauthoritative reckoning, the sumpah laknat never really stuck in the first place, and the "wrong pronunciation" thing was just a AMK-sponsored bit of sideshow comedy produced solely for the consumption and enjoyment of their own machais.
I forget where I read this, but someone suggested that UMNO's tactic was fundamentally suicidal: you don't go to a Malay kampung and tell them their blue-eyed boy who just made it big is actually a disgrace.
I felt that attacking 916 as a move that would destroy the nation may have been a better bet, but perhaps that's just me projecting my own value system onto others la!
My reading of the political situation, including frank opinion from establishment people I have known for years, is YES, it is an ABSOLUTELY MUST WIN by-election for UMNO.
ReplyDeleteOf course, Najib is almost sure to be the next PM come March. But leading a strong confident party, or one shivering at ghosts behind every shadow?
Your analysis has logical merit, but political tides are driven by maybe 70% perception, 30% logic or facts.
If UMNO loses in Kuala Terengganu, it will be 2 by-elections in a row. And its UMNO losing the by-election, a very important point to remember, not MIC or MCA, which many UMNO Malays privately dismiss as irrelevant.
The psychological impact of a loss on UMNO would be accurately described as PANIC, even though the actual arithmetic is just -1/+0 seat for the government in the Dewan Rakyat.
The outcome is by no means certain either way, but just watch the show...it will be very interesting either way.
Unfortunately for the cause of civil society, a scaredy-cat UMNO is more likely to be inclined to Racial, Religious and Authoritarian extremism compared to a confident one. Which is bad for the country.
I'm not really an opposition supporter, just want to see an honest and open government willing to treat everyone fairly.
If BN/UMNO can make the needed changes, I'll support that, but right now, I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel.
im tired of politics already ... ktemoc, when u gonna finish?
ReplyDeleteHow can be tired of politics...?
ReplyDeleteWhen you have three people, you have politics...one of them is bound to have some sort of disagreement with at least one other person, and will try pull the 3rd person to his side....so now you have a political party...
Int, I read it in MKINI - alas, I don't have premium subscripton, entitling me to search facilities of the MKINI library/archives.
ReplyDeletey'know, you've mostly been inaccurate in your political predictions.... but lets hope this time you're correct. :D
ReplyDeleteI think political fatigue has set in among many readers of Malaysiakini and the related blogs like yours. I myself have taken a break for a while.
ReplyDeleteMy only observation at this point is that KT is consistent in his viewpoint and standpoint though to the point of irrationality at times; But still providing a service to the Malaysian public at large by allowing a truly freer and more open discussion in his blog than others. Even so, there are a few opportunists who, as usual, abuses whatever good is provided insociety. Ars*holes like these can never be expected to meet the expectation of higher standards of social behaviour civilised society.
In Malaysiakini, I detect a hijacking of the news portal by the cohorts of extreme opportunistic and abusive super egoistic Ind*an editors, journalist, and writers continuously pushing their views forward and promoting themselves and their race. I pity the managing editor. I do not think Malaysiakini is so impartial and professional as it once was. I see more censorship and pirating of letters by the gatekeepers there. Personally, i think, as usual, the ind*an journalists have all been bought over by UMNO and CIA. All that whining and shouting over poor Ind*ans and their needs. What a lot of crock. Any one with open eyes can see they are doing very well in Malaysia. More than they should. Any-thing-goes-Ind*ans don't need no help. In truth they control the media and practise pushing the envelope that "if you keep shouting and pushing, you will get more than what you hope for or deserve!".
Keep the free speech coming KT but be aware of the Ind*ans. I hope you will allow this letter to get through as it reflects my concerns at all the rotten things that is happening here in Malaysia.