Lawyer Tan Sri Muhammad Shafee Abdullah speaks during a press conference at the Federal Court in Putrajaya on December 26, 2025. Picture by Firdaus Latif
First Published: Friday, 03 Jul 2026 2:25 PM MYT
PUTRAJAYA, July 3 — Lawyer Tan Sri Shafee Abdullah argued before the Court of Appeal today that failure to stay the Inland Revenue Board’s (LHDN) case against ex-prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak would render his appeal before the Special Commissioners of Income Tax (SCIT) in September “meaningless.”
Speaking before a three-member bench chaired by Justice Datuk Alwi Abdul Wahab, Shafee contended that proceeding with the bankruptcy action would be “akin to entering the boxing ring with both hands tied,” Free Malaysia Today reported.
He warned that a bankruptcy declaration would not only bar Najib from various activities but would also strip him of control over his assets, placing them under the authority of the director-general of insolvency.
The dispute centres on an additional tax assessment of RM1.69 billion for the 2011 to 2017 period, stemming from an alleged RM8 billion donation that Najib maintains was used for political and welfare activities.
The LHDN, represented by senior revenue counsel Norhisham Ahmad, countered that there are “no special circumstances” to justify a stay.
Ahmad leaned on a Federal Court ruling from October 2023 that upheld the “pay first, talk later” principle, which mandates that tax assessments must be settled regardless of any pending appeals.
The bench, which includes Justices Datuk Shahnaz Sulaiman and Datuk Ong Chee Kwan, has set September 4 for its decision.
This hearing follows a November 17 ruling last year, in which the High Court dismissed applications by Najib and his son, Nazifuddin, to stay bankruptcy proceedings over unpaid tax arrears of RM1.69 billion and RM37.6 million, respectively.
The court affirmed that pending appeals do not shield taxpayers from recovery actions.
Najib continues to challenge two bankruptcy notices, arguing that the assessments, which climbed from RM1.46 billion to RM1.69 billion due to penalties and interest, are flawed and should not be enforced while related proceedings remain active.
Home Minister Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail said intelligence and preliminary checks by the authorities indicated that the late Tun Daim Zainuddin’s widow, Toh Puan Na’imah Abdul Khalid, and her children are currently overseas. — Picture by Raymond Manuel
First Published: Friday, 03 Jul 2026 2:25 PM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR, July 3 — The Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) are tracking the whereabouts of the late Tun Daim Zainuddin’s widow, Toh Puan Na’imah Abdul Khalid, and her children, who are believed to be in Europe, to assist in an ongoing police investigation.
Home Minister Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail said intelligence and preliminary checks by the authorities indicated that they are currently overseas.
“At this stage, PDRM is actively working to locate the late Tun Daim’s widow, Toh Puan Na’imah Abdul Khalid, and her children to assist in completing the ongoing police investigation.
“Based on intelligence and preliminary checks by the authorities, the individuals in question are believed to be overseas, specifically in Europe,” he said in a written parliamentary reply posted on the Dewan Rakyat website on Thursday.
He was responding to a question from Lim Lip Eng (PH–Kepong), who wanted to know whether members of the late Tun Daim’s family were being sought by police due to their presence abroad, and what measures the government was taking to bring them back to Malaysia.
Saifuddin Nasution said PDRM had opened an investigation paper following Sentul Police Report No. 4034/26, with the case being investigated under Section 124B of the Penal Code, which relates to activities detrimental to parliamentary democracy.
He said PDRM, through its International Relations Division and the Interpol Kuala Lumpur National Central Bureau (NCB), is working closely with its counterparts to determine the family’s exact whereabouts as part of efforts to facilitate their return to Malaysia.
“The government wishes to emphasise that all actions taken by PDRM are based on the rule of law, without prejudice or selective agendas, and are carried out to safeguard national security and uphold the integrity of the legal system,” he said.
On May 26, Bernama reported that Bukit Aman Criminal Investigation Department (CID) director Datuk M. Kumar confirmed that Na’imah and her two sons, Muhammed Amir Zainuddin and Muhammed Amin Zainuddin, had been abroad since investigations into an alleged plot to topple the government began earlier this year.
He said police had recorded statements from 17 individuals to assist investigations under Section 124B of the Penal Code, and that the investigation paper had since been referred to the Attorney General’s Chambers for further action. — Bernama
This picture taken from a position in the Upper Galilee in northern Israel shows destroyed buildings in a Lebanese village along the Israel-Lebanon border, on July 1, 2026. — AFP pic
First Published: Friday, 03 Jul 2026 2:13 PM MYT
BEIRUT, July 3 — Israeli forces carried out fresh airstrikes and home demolitions in southern Lebanon on Thursday, despite a framework agreement signed last week between Beirut and Tel Aviv for a phased Israeli withdrawal, Anadolu Ajansi reported, citing Lebanon’s state news agency NNA.
According to NNA, an Israeli drone struck near Ghandour Hospital in the town of Nabatieh al-Fawqa in the Nabatieh District.
In Bint Jbeil district, Israeli warplanes launched an airstrike on the town of Braashit, though there was no immediate word on casualties or material damage.
Israeli forces also carried out what NNA described as violent demolition operations targeting several homes in the town of Hadatha, while another large explosion was reported near the towns of Kounine and Tayri in the same district.
In Tyre, Israeli reconnaissance drones were seen flying at low altitude over the city of Tyre and surrounding areas.
The Israeli army did not immediately comment on the strikes or demolition operations. It usually claims to target Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure, although Lebanese authorities say many of the casualties have been civilians.
The attacks came despite a US-sponsored framework agreement signed on June 26 between Lebanon and Israel, which provides for a phased Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese territory, beginning with two unspecified pilot zones.
The agreement, however, does not set a timetable for the withdrawal and links it to the Lebanese army assuming full and effective security responsibility in evacuated areas, alongside the disarmament of all non-state armed groups, particularly Hezbollah.
Lebanese officials have described the agreement as a first step toward restoring state sovereignty across all territory and facilitating the return of displaced residents.
Hezbollah has rejected the deal as “non-existent” and “humiliating”, saying any attempt to link Israeli withdrawal to the group’s disarmament crosses “red lines”.
According to the latest official Lebanese figures, Israeli attacks on the country since March 2 have killed 4,298 people and wounded 12,196 others. — Bernama-Anadolu
***
Those shailoky bastids have been at it again and again because they know no honour, and thus continuously violated treaties, agreement, ceasefires etc, knowing the wankees and europeans won't utter a squeak at their divine overlord. S-Wholes. Frigging nuke them lah!
The ex-MP from DAP says BN could end up sweeping 53 of the 56 seats up for grabs, with PH taking the other three
Former Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming said PH lacks a cohesive campaign narrative, a menteri besar candidate, and senior leaders as candidates.
PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional’s chances of a landslide win in the Johor polls are increasing, with the Umno-led coalition having greater odds of winning a larger haul of seats than it did in the last state election, says former Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming.
The DAP man said BN could end up sweeping 53 of the 56 seats up for grabs on July 11, a whopping 13 more than the 40 it won in the 2022 state polls.
He said Pakatan Harapan (PH) would likely take the remaining three seats while Perikatan Nasional (PN) could be wiped out.
Ong based his projections on the vote share between BN, PH, and PN in the 2022 general election (GE15), where PH won 13 of the 25 parliamentary seats.
“Based on the GE15 results, PH would have won 31 state seats with 43% of the popular vote compared to just 13 state seats (including one won by Muda through a pact with PH) in the 2022 state polls,” he said in a statement.
However, he said Chinese and Indian support for PH was at its peak in GE15, and that this would reduce in the upcoming state election.
Ong said PH appeared to lack a cohesive campaign narrative after a week of campaigning, other than attacking BN’s poster boy, menteri besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi.
He also pointed out that PH had not named a menteri besar candidate, while many senior leaders in the state were not contesting. He said this had left a vacuum in leadership guidance and the shaping of campaign narratives.
“PH is only announcing its manifesto today, while BN unveiled its manifesto the day after nominations.
“There will not be enough time for PH to make the manifesto familiar even among PH’s own candidates, much less the larger electorate in Johor,” he said.
Ong, an adjunct professor at Taylor’s University, added that PN was unlikely to perform well, especially after the breakdown in the relationship between PAS and Bersatu.
The former DAP election strategist also said a dominant victory for BN in Johor would spill over to the Aug 1 state election in Negeri Sembilan.
It could even expedite the dissolution of Parliament later this year to make way for the 16th general election, Ong added.
BN and PH are vying for all 56 seats up for grabs in the Johor assembly, while PN is contesting 33. PAS, which is only contesting 11 seats, has urged its supporters to back BN candidates in seats not contested by PN.
Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad’s Parti Bersama Malaysia is contesting 15 seats, which Ong said could affect PH’s vote share, while Muda is vying for four.
In the 2022 state election, BN won 40 seats, followed by PH (12), PN (three), and Muda (one).
PH aims to bring 20,000 professionals in Singapore back to Johor with various incentives alongside home ownership and public health insurance schemes
(From left) Johor DAP chief Teo Nie Ching, PKR election director and vice-president Amirudin Shari, Johor Amanah chief Aminolhuda Hassan, and Johor PKR chief Dr Zaliha Mustafa launching PH’s manifesto for the Johor election.
JOHOR BAHRU: Pakatan Harapan (PH) today launched its manifesto for the July 11 election in Johor, outlining its vision and proposed initiatives to make the southern state the “Shenzhen of Southeast Asia”.
This references Shenzhen’s growth into a technology hub and the third most populous city in China after decades of trailing behind neighbouring Hong Kong.
PH’s key proposed initiatives include a programme aimed at bringing 20,000 professionals currently in Singapore back to Johor by 2031 through various job and entrepreneurship incentives.
The coalition also plans to provide 500,000 Johoreans with up to RM100,000 in public health insurance coverage, particularly those in the B40 and M40 income groups, as well as the disabled.
It also pledged to give RM8,000 to 50,000 young families to help them pay the down payments for their first home, while providing easier financing and rent-to-own schemes, and building 80,000 affordable homes over the next five years.
PH likewise plans to distribute a RM1,000 bonus for each child born in Johor, set up 250 Madani childcare centres to help women return to the workforce, and introduce a RM50 monthly public transport pass for students, senior citizens, and the disabled.
Two Malaysians injured in a bomb explosion in Tak Bai, southern Thailand, arrive at Hospital Raja Perempuan Zainab II in Kota Bharu for further treatment at the Emergency Department, June 30, 2026. — Bernama pic
First Published: Friday, 03 Jul 2026 9:53 AM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR, July 3 — Thai security forces have apprehended a local man to assist in the investigation of a roadside bombing at Sapom Junction, Tak Bai District, which left two Malaysians injured last Monday.
The 40-year-old suspect was arrested at 3.40pm yesterday during a coordinated raid by three law enforcement agencies at a residence in the Phai Wan Sub-district of Tak Bai, Utusan Malaysia reported.
A source from the Internal Security Operations Command Region 4 (ISOC 4) confirmed that the arrest was triggered by targeted intelligence. A subsequent search of the premises uncovered a suspicious cache of items, including more than 10 watches and a large quantity of motorcycle exhaust pipe fragments.
“The suspect was taken for further investigation at the 46th Ranger Regiment Camp in Mueang Narathiwat District after authorities found an unusual quantity of items inconsistent with the circumstances of local residents,” the source said yesterday.
The suspect will remain in custody pending the results of the investigation to determine his level of involvement in the attack.
The arrest follows the incident last Monday, where a multi-purpose vehicle (SUV) carrying two Malaysians was struck by a homemade improvised explosive device (IED) believed to have been planted along the roadside at Sapom Junction.
Transport Minister Anthony Loke said the Madani government will seek an audience with the Sultan of Selangor, Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah, to provide further clarification on the LRT3 Shah Alam Line, following the Ruler’s remarks on the project’s cost and delays on Wednesday. — Bernama pic
First Published: Friday, 03 Jul 2026 8:54 AM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR, July 3 — The Madani government will seek an audience with the Sultan of Selangor, Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah, to provide further clarification on the LRT3 Shah Alam Line, following the Ruler’s remarks on the project’s cost and delays on Wednesday.
Transport Minister Anthony Loke said the move was prompted by the ruler’s concerns over the project’s implementation.
“We accept His Royal Highness’ remarks, and I will seek an audience with the Sultan of Selangor to provide further clarification,” he said when met by reporters during a charity dinner held at a restaurant here last night.
Also present were Pakatan Harapan (PH) Communications Director and Communications Minister Datuk Fahmi Fadzil, PH’s Johor State Election director Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari and several PH candidates contesting in the Muar area.
On Wednesday, Sultan Sharafuddin said that following the change in the Federal Government administration in 2018, the LRT3 project was suspended for more than 18 months before facing a further 19-month delay due to the Covid-19 pandemic until 2021.
His Royal Highness said that during the period, the proposed size of each station was reduced, the number of train carriages cut, while five proposed stations along the alignment were cancelled.
The Sultan stressed that the LRT3 project was not a mega project undertaken for prestige, but rather an important initiative for the benefit and well-being of the people.
In another development, Loke said the Ministry of Transport had taken the initiative to increase the frequency of public transport services to facilitate outstation voters returning home to fulfil their civic responsibility in the 16th Johor State Election on July 11.
He said Keretapi Tanah Melayu Berhad (KTMB) had agreed to increase the frequency of its Electric Train Service (ETS) between Kuala Lumpur and Johor Bahru.
“KTMB has already added more ETS trips between Kuala Lumpur and Johor Bahru. This will also benefit those returning from Singapore, as they can take the ETS to Segamat, Labis and other areas.
“Likewise, voters from the northern region can use the ETS to return to Johor. We have increased the number of public transport services and hope this will encourage more voters to return home to cast their ballots,” he said.
The 16th Johor State Election will see 172 candidates contesting 56 state seats, with polling set for July 11 and early voting on July 7.
For the latest updates on the election, visit https://prn.bernama.com/johor/. — Bernama
Pakatan Harapan’s Puteri Wangsa candidate Maszlee Malik (right) is seen during his campaign walkabout in Setia Indah, Johor Bahru on July 2, 2026. — Picture by Ben Tan
First Published: Friday, 03 Jul 2026 8:48 AM MYT
JOHOR BAHRU, July 3 — Pakatan Harapan (PH) is ready to align with any interested party to form a state government following the Johor state election, according to Johor PKR state leadership council vice-chief Maszlee Malik.
Maszlee said that PH is open to political diversity and is willing to cooperate even with parties whose political directions diverge from its own.
“As a political party that serves the people, we are open to sitting with all parties, including those that may have different guiding principles from us.
“The essence of the matter that must be understood is the interests of the people in Johor, which must be given priority,” he told reporters after a campaign walkabout in Setia Indah late yesterday.
The PH Puteri Wangsa candidate was countering a hardline stance taken by Johor Perikatan Nasional (PN) chairman Datuk Dr Sahruddin Jamal, who recently declared that his coalition would refuse to work with PH.
Dr Sahruddin, who also serves as the Johor Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) chief, stated that PN would not enter a coalition state government with PH due to a fundamental clash in beliefs. However, he noted that PN remains open to joining forces with parties that share a similar ideology.
Regarding his own campaign, Maszlee reported a positive reception from residents across various age groups and backgrounds. Now in its sixth day, the 51-year-old former education minister is streamlining his efforts to ensure every corner of Puteri Wangsa is reached.
“In the final week, we will appeal to those who work and live outside of Puteri Wangsa to return home and cast their votes,” he said.
Puteri Wangsa, located within the Johor Bahru district and the Tebrau parliamentary constituency, is a densely populated, urban mixed seat. It is widely regarded as a high-stakes battleground known for its active youth engagement and volatile, multi-cornered electoral dynamics.
Maszlee faces a crowded field in his bid for the seat, squaring off against Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate Teow Chia Ling, Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) candidate Nicholas Paul Vincent, Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) candidate Rashifa Aljunied, and independent Wang Wee Siong.
The constituency comprises 128,723 voters, including 128,525 ordinary voters and 198 police personnel and their spouses.
Polling for the Johor state election takes place on July 11, with early voting scheduled for July 7.
Malaysia has been governed by a ‘unity government’, created out of convenience for the last three and a half years. It had an illusion of stability until the Johor State election came up and two major components of the coalition have decided to run separately from each other. This will no doubt be continued in Negeri Sembilan, and later in Melaka.
These three coming state elections will most definitely alter the current perceived centre of power within the country, leading to the possibility that the next federal government will be drastically different from what has been labelled the “Madani government” today.
No doubt, UMNO, which is expected to form a government after the Johor State election is pushing for an early federal election, hoping to use Johor, Negeri Sembilan, and Melaka as a catapult.
However, the current prime minister Anwar Ibrahim presently intends to allow the government to run its full term, where a full general election can be held as late as February 2028.
Too be sure, no one can safely predict the actual outcome of the Johor State election. There are too many factors involved. However, the nominations last Saturday provide UMNO with a great electoral advantage. After Johor is Negeri Sembilan which is currently ruled by a minority Pakatan Harapan government, after UMNO withdrew support. Negeri Sembilan will be a very fair test of voter sentiment within the southern half of the peninsula.
The crucial question that will be answered in the coming two state elections will be if PH and UMNO are better off running solo. Secondly the two state elections will show the DAP what options the party really has. Will their disaster in Sabah be repeated is the crucial test for them.
There have been many signs that major political parties will change alliances, based upon the Johor and Negeri Sembilan results. We have already seen PAS calling for voters to choose UMNO, if PAS is not running a candidate in the seat during the Johor campaign.
Johor will also test the one month old Bersama Party led by ex-PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli. They are presently an unknown quantity. Bersama is contesting 15 seats in Johor.
The key to watch in Johor is whether UMNO can do better than the 40 seats it had in the last assembly, and whether Bersama can be taken seriously.
So, what will the next federal parliament look like?
To answer this question this far out, requires some assumptions and guess work based upon trends that can be observed.
Its most likely that PAS could win up to 50 seats, cannibalizing seats from Bersatu. Some Bersatu seats were lent to Bersatu for GE15 and PAS wants them back. Amanah could also be eaten up in the coming election, some of their seats going back to PAS.
PH is in a quandary. Many activities that have made PH unpopular actually were undertaken by rogue parts of the bureaucracy. However, PH will most likely pay for these activities electorally. This is going to leave the DAP with fewer seats, maybe with some going to the new Bersama party. PKR’s own electoral research tells the story, unless something drastic happens.
UMNO is a big question mark, which Johor, Negeri Sembilan, and Melaka will answer. If UMNO does well in the south of the Peninsula, this could mean that in a general election that UMNO could win up to 40-50 seats, particularly if Bersatu performs poorly. Hamzah’s new movement is an unknown.
Who will form the next government?
If the voting scenario above occurs, PAS will be in the best position to form a government in coalition with other parties. The most obvious is UMNO (Barisan Nasional). This could give this grouping somewhere close to 100 seats.
Zahid is waiting for his time
The remains of PKR, which could be around a dozen seats could allow PAS/PN to have a simple majority.
Its well known that Ahmad Zahid Hamidi wants to take up the mantle of being PM. However, many dismiss this for a number of reasons (proficiency in English, etc.). Anwar could with agreement of PAS and UMNO take on a second term, although its more likely he may take on a position as a mentor-minister. There are other scenarios which are best to explain later.
The ‘deep state’ elements want an UMNO controlled government. Otherwise, a government with UMNO playing a powerful role. However, there is a group of ‘professionals’ within PAS that want to rid the government of such artifacts. They want to ‘save Malaysia’ and bring back good governance. The more conservative grouping in PAS want to play a ‘backroom role’ in any future government.
Under such as scenario, the DAP and the small number of seats Bersama may win will be banished to the opposition benches in parliament and not heard from.
One can expect that most Sabah MPs in the two blocks Wawasan and GRS will support the new government in exchange for positions and conditions. GPS will decide on what is best for Sarawak.
This scenario has a high possibility looking at the political environment now. After the Johor state election this scenario could be re-evaluated as to its potential reality.
***
Depressing, more so with BERSAMA entering the fray
MSM Claims That Iran War Has Caused a Rift Between Trump and Saudi Arabia
Reports in TheNew York Times and Wall Street Journal say disagreements over the Iran war have created friction between President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
According to unnamed officials cited by the reports, Saudi Arabia opposed aspects of US military strategy because of concerns about Iranian retaliation, prompting the Trump administration to consider repositioning some US forces stationed in the kingdom.
Despite the reported tensions, both governments have continued to publicly describe the US-Saudi relationship as an important strategic partnership.
GhostofBasedPatrickHenry: Remember when Mossad Media was trying to psyop everybody into believing that Saudi Arabia was about to enter the war against Iran? And that Saudi was lobbying Washington to go to war?
But now they are saying that Saudi Arabia never wanted the war, and it has actually caused a rift between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Trump?
So were they lying before? Or are they lying now? Or are they just always lying and making up things about the Middle East and expecting us to believe it?
The net effect of this “rift” is that we are now mulling pulling our troops out of Saudi Arabia and bringing them home. And the best part is that the warmongers like Lindsey Graham claim that this is a punishment for Saudi.
The incentive for Saudi Arabia to house US troops has also been that it would serve as a deterrent for attacks against The Kingdom, lest the attacker suffer the retribution of the US military. We learned from the Iran War that actually the US military presence wasn’t actually a deterrent at all—it actually was a liability, as the US bases were specifically targeted by Iran, who stated that they otherwise had no intention of attacking Saudi. So it has inverted, and there is actually an incentive now to expel foreign military bases, lest the host country suffer the consequences of that foreign military’s warmongering.
And President Trump tricked the Deep State into doing it, using their enormous ego against them. 5D chess like you read about.
China’s remarkable contribution to the clean energy movement was highlighted in a new chart by Jostein Hauge of Cambridge University in the UK, released last night.
“China now manufactures 89% of the world’s solar panels, 70% of the world’s wind turbines, 83% of the world’s batteries, and 75% of the world’s electric vehicles — all at a lower cost than the West,” he said.
After posting the chart on X, he received the usual hostile comments that China still uses coal.
The simple response to that is that every major economy still uses coal – the question is whether they are following targets to ween themselves off it and create alternative energy sources.
China, clearly, is.
Other countries? Well, some have spotty records, while others are going in reverse.
People concerned about the future of the environment will recall the works of Rachel Carson, a scientist-author credited with triggering the start of widespread awareness of these issues, with a 1961 book called Silent Spring.
The movement she inspired grew in the west in the 1960s, and is now global. Everyone has now heard of the need to move to cleaner energy.
But some do a lot of talking, while others actually make the switch.
As he visited troops in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the military “will not leave” the area as long as the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah remains a “threat” to his nation.
A day earlier, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz also said Israel’s military will not withdraw “a millimetre” until Hezbollah is disarmed.
But the Israeli stance is squarely at odds with the first clause of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which provides for an immediate, permanent halt to fighting on “all fronts”, including in Lebanon where Israeli forces have occupied approximately one-fifth of the country since early March.
That provision has since been undercut by a separate US-brokered framework agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government, which doesn’t require Israeli forces to leave southern Lebanon or halt attacks – a deal Hezbollah has denounced.
That leaves an open question: Is Israel’s position bluster for a domestic audience, or a hard line that could unravel the fragile MoU? We spoke to analysts to find out.
[Al Jazeera]
‘Lose-lose’ for Netanyahu
Behind Netanyahu’s combative language is an embattled prime minister managing a difficult balancing act, Cyrus Schayegh, professor of international history and politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told Al Jazeera.
On the one hand, domestic politics has made Netanyahu reluctant to be seen as backing down from the war with Hezbollah, which began firing rockets into northern Israel soon after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28, in which Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed. Israel responded with force and has launched near-daily strikes, as well as an expanding ground invasion, ever since.
With elections expected around October, a hasty withdrawal from Lebanon could look like capitulation – and worse, an implicit admission that he only fell into line because of pressure from US President Donald Trump.
But the other side of that “lose-lose” is Washington. Netanyahu, Schayegh says, understands exactly what Trump wants from him: to prevent the Israel-Hezbollah front from unravelling the broader US-Iran negotiations.
Defying that expectation risks a rupture with the US at a moment when Israel can least afford one.
Israeli security personnel remain on alert and scan the sky for an FPV drone in Metula, northern Israel, after Netanyahu ordered strikes on what his office described as Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s southern suburbs, according to a statement from his office [Atef Safadi/EPA]
Iran’s ‘deep commitment’
Tehran has explicitly and repeatedly stated that Israel must fully withdraw from all occupied Lebanese territories before it will entertain signing any sort of peace deal with the US.
Schayegh said this reflects Iran’s deep commitment to Hezbollah’s survival – the group has proven itself a vital strategic partner over the years, and the ties between Hezbollah’s leadership and the Iranian regime run deeper than pure strategy, reaching into socio-cultural and even family bonds.
Hezbollah is a major issue for Iran, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and it has shown this by its willingness to strike northern Israel and block the Strait of Hormuz over the issue before, geopolitical analyst Joe Macaron told Al Jazeera.
But that doesn’t mean Iran expects, or even wants, a full return to the pre-Gaza war status quo, Schayegh says.
At least some in Tehran, he believes, understand that getting Israel out of Lebanon won’t mean restoring the arrangement that held before 2023, when the Lebanese army played little to no role in the south, and Hezbollah operated largely unchecked, a dynamic dating back to the 2006 war in which Israel also occupied southern Lebanon.
That recognition, Schayegh argues, means the form Hezbollah’s precise posture and footprint in southern Lebanon takes isn’t treated by Tehran as non-negotiable.
Instead, it functions as a bargaining chip, one Iran could potentially use incrementally, trading concessions step by step in a slow, deliberate, diplomatic process, he says, adding that although it’s “a delicate path” for Tehran to walk. Diminishing the power of Hezbollah in Lebanon, therefore, it is a path Iran may be prepared to navigate around rather than resist outright.
Still, Iran holding on to the Lebanon issue “as much as it could” was reportedly a sticking point that delayed the MoU in the first place, according to Ronnie Chatah, a political commentator, writer and host of The Beirut Banyan podcast.
He told Al Jazeera it’s conceivable Iran could still make Lebanon “a heightened problem”, slowing a permanent deal with Washington unless there’s added pressure on Israel to at least appear to be withdrawing.
Even so, Chatah doesn’t believe the current situation is enough to derail the MoU altogether.
In the days since both agreements were signed, he said, there’s been no serious push by Iran to make Lebanon a priority and, despite Israel’s clear insistence it will stay as long as it sees a threat, he does not believe it will “jeopardise” the MoU.
Hezbollah’s exclusion: ‘humiliating, shameful and a surrender’
Hezbollah was not involved in the framework agreement between Israeli and Lebanese officials. In fact, it was entirely excluded from the negotiations, which led to a deal being signed in Washington, DC.
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has adamantly rejected the framework agreement, calling it “humiliating, shameful and a surrender of sovereignty”.
As a party which has held seats in the Lebanese parliament since the mid-2000s, Schayegh noted, Hezbollah is not simply a “marionette” of Iran. But since Israel’s 2024 campaign in Lebanon, amid the Gaza war, which has massively weakened the armed group and killed much of its leadership, Iran has organisationally assumed a greater role.
For Chatah, the real answers, therefore, lie not in Lebanon but in Iran.
As the most important player in its “axis of resistance” across the region, Hezbollah represents Iran’s most “advanced investment” beyond its borders over the past four and a half decades, he said. The armed group also remains “a very valuable asset for security leverage” across the region, even after being hit hard, degrading its capabilities.
He said it is unlikely Tehran could be persuaded to abandon Hezbollah anytime soon, or in the long term – the group is simply too important for the Iranian regime to give up, and may ultimately be “the lifeline for the Iranian regime” itself.
Meanwhile, Israel also refuses to back down on the disarmament and removal of Hezbollah.
Chatah points to a historical precedent for this kind of impasse: a 1983 tripartite agreement between Lebanon and Israel ultimately collapsed, followed by a wave of attacks, including on international peacekeepers and the US embassy, after which Hezbollah emerged as a dominant security actor in Lebanon as Israeli forces later withdrew.
Still, without Hezbollah’s buy-in, the deal will be “difficult to implement” and could trigger further conflict, Macaron said.
A framework that sidesteps the core issues, the Lebanese army’s role and an Israeli withdrawal, isn’t built on solid ground, Macaron said, adding that it is merely the start of a process rather than a long-term resolution.
Trump’s priority: the nuclear file
For Washington, Macaron says, the priority is clear: The nuclear issue with Iran takes precedence over everything else, and the US isn’t willing to be flexible on that front.
Avoiding a return to escalation with Iran matters more than pressing hard on Lebanon – meaning the US doesn’t want Hezbollah “under complete pressure” either, he said.
If Washington and Tehran can make progress on the bilateral nuclear talks in the coming weeks, Macaron suggests, the US is likely to show more flexibility on the Lebanon issue as a result.
Schayegh also noted that the US has much riding on the outcome, and the balance of leverage between the two sides is tilted more towards Iran than before – partly because Iran can now hurt the US in ways it previously couldn’t or wouldn’t, such as by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which directly harms Americans and the wider global economy.
