PH shed nearly 5% of vote since GE15, says Kian Ming
Former Bangi MP says PH’s vote share was 39.7% in the Negeri Sembilan election compared to 44.4% in the 2022 general election
DAP’s Ong Kian Ming said the six state seats where PH experienced an increase in support include Chennah and Linggi.
PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) vote share in the Negeri Sembilan polls last Saturday fell by almost 5% compared with the 2022 general election (GE15), former Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming says.
In a statement, Ong said PH’s vote share was 39.7% in 2026 compared to 44.4% in GE15.
He said the major difference this time was that Malay votes were not split between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN).
“The two coalitions combined to win more than 55% of the popular vote, which is sufficient to win a comfortable majority of seats in a first-past-the-post electoral system,” Ong said.
He also said Bersatu’s vote share plummeted to 2.7%, with only one of its 24 candidates retaining his deposit.
BN won 18 seats in Negeri Sembilan while PN secured seven, giving the coalitions a combined 25 seats and a two-thirds majority in the state assembly. PH won the remaining 11 seats.
Overall turnout for the Negeri Sembilan polls was 72.6%, according to the Election Commission.
Ong said his initial estimates for Malay and Chinese turnout were 78% and 62% respectively. He also predicted that Malay support for PH in the state polls was around 8%.
However, he said, in a 57% Malay electorate state like Negeri Sembilan where an estimated 80% of Malay voters supported BN or PN, this translated into an electoral advantage of slightly more than 7% for BN and PN candidates.
He said among the Chinese voters who turned out, more than 90% backed PH.
“But this was not enough to ‘save’ (DAP secretary-general) Loke Siew Fook in Chennah, a seat with a roughly 40% Chinese electorate and a 60% Malay and Orang Asli electorate that voted overwhelmingly for the BN-MCA candidate.”
He said the six state seats where PH experienced an increase in support included Chennah and Linggi, by 2.4% in each seat.
However, because most of the votes won by PN in GE15 were transferred to BN in the Negeri Sembilan polls, this small increase in support was overwhelmed by the even larger increase in support, especially among the Malay voters, for BN and PN.
Looking ahead
Ong said the Anwar Ibrahim-led federal administration must now focus on delivering political and institutional reforms and move away from “short-term tactics”.
He said reforms that must be delivered before the next general election include the term limit to the prime minister’s tenure as well as the separation of roles for the public prosecutor and attorney-general.
He also urged the administration to introduce an equal constituency allocation bill so that opposition MPs would receive the same allocation as government MPs.
“This is important, especially since PH is likely to find itself back in the opposition after GE16,” Ong said.
He said the unity government must also return to pushing for electoral reform, including a fair delimitation of constituencies at the federal and state levels.
In a statement, Ong said PH’s vote share was 39.7% in 2026 compared to 44.4% in GE15.
He said the major difference this time was that Malay votes were not split between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN).
“The two coalitions combined to win more than 55% of the popular vote, which is sufficient to win a comfortable majority of seats in a first-past-the-post electoral system,” Ong said.
He also said Bersatu’s vote share plummeted to 2.7%, with only one of its 24 candidates retaining his deposit.
BN won 18 seats in Negeri Sembilan while PN secured seven, giving the coalitions a combined 25 seats and a two-thirds majority in the state assembly. PH won the remaining 11 seats.
Overall turnout for the Negeri Sembilan polls was 72.6%, according to the Election Commission.
Ong said his initial estimates for Malay and Chinese turnout were 78% and 62% respectively. He also predicted that Malay support for PH in the state polls was around 8%.
However, he said, in a 57% Malay electorate state like Negeri Sembilan where an estimated 80% of Malay voters supported BN or PN, this translated into an electoral advantage of slightly more than 7% for BN and PN candidates.
He said among the Chinese voters who turned out, more than 90% backed PH.
“But this was not enough to ‘save’ (DAP secretary-general) Loke Siew Fook in Chennah, a seat with a roughly 40% Chinese electorate and a 60% Malay and Orang Asli electorate that voted overwhelmingly for the BN-MCA candidate.”
He said the six state seats where PH experienced an increase in support included Chennah and Linggi, by 2.4% in each seat.
However, because most of the votes won by PN in GE15 were transferred to BN in the Negeri Sembilan polls, this small increase in support was overwhelmed by the even larger increase in support, especially among the Malay voters, for BN and PN.
Looking ahead
Ong said the Anwar Ibrahim-led federal administration must now focus on delivering political and institutional reforms and move away from “short-term tactics”.
He said reforms that must be delivered before the next general election include the term limit to the prime minister’s tenure as well as the separation of roles for the public prosecutor and attorney-general.
He also urged the administration to introduce an equal constituency allocation bill so that opposition MPs would receive the same allocation as government MPs.
“This is important, especially since PH is likely to find itself back in the opposition after GE16,” Ong said.
He said the unity government must also return to pushing for electoral reform, including a fair delimitation of constituencies at the federal and state levels.
Bungkus DAP and PH kau kau.
ReplyDeleteSelangor and Penang are in danger.