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Thursday, August 14, 2008

Anwar Ibrahim - Permatang Pauh no easy ride?

In an earlier post Permatang Pauh - simplified mathematics I toyed around with some basic assumptions and predicted that Anwar Ibrahim would win the parliamentary constituency his wife had vacated for him, though by a slightly reduced majority (11,000 compared to Dr Wan's 13,000).

Since then, we have been regaled by the shocking news in Malaysiakini that the PKR MP for neighbouring Kulim Bandar Baharu, Zulkifli Noordin, had been the most virulent of the protest leaders barracking the Bar Council’s forum on ‘Conversion to Islam’ – see Malaysiakini news articles
Rival groups unified in protest, Protesters stop Bar's 'conversion' forum and Moments of chaos during forum.

Undoubtedly the MCA, Gerakan and MIC will be lavishing loving attention to this disgraceful PKR episode during the Permatang Pauh by-election campaign.


In Malaysia, playing bigoted ethno-religious games can sometimes be a double–edged sword. An ethnic hero for group A would be an racist asshole to group B, and vice versa.

But the word being circulated is that the crucial element for victory in Permatang Pauh lies with the non Malays, as the Malay votes are already spoken for and set in concrete.


This may explain a few happenings, but I won’t go into these yet, except to note that in the Malaysiakini news article BN candidate: I can defeat Anwar UMNO has selected Arif Shah Omar Shah, the Seberang Jaya ADUN, to be its candidate for the parliamentary by-election.

It’s very rare that UMNO (or BN) would nominate an existing ADUN to stand as a candidate for a parliamentary seat. By reading the various bits and pieces we put together the UMNO perception that Arif Shah would be the best possible candidate against the de facto PKR Godzilla, for two reasons – in the face of the Pakatan March tsunami, Arif has been the only UMNO candidate in the last election to win a State seat (which lies within the Permatang Pauh constituency), and he speaks Mandarin, a huge plus if the Chinese votes are courted, as well as Hokkien, the lingua franca of Penang Islanders.

Can he be a giant killer?


Let’s examine the numbers in the above Malaysiakini table on the voters’ numbers, turnouts and preferences.

Numbers of voters turnout for the parliamentary seat and the 3 state seats combined were almost the same, at 47,300 (only 7 votes difference suggesting perhaps spoilt votes for the parliamentary seat), so the figure would be right.

The constituency has 58,459 registered voters, therefore the turnout was almost 81%, an excellent figure normally associated with Malay dominated seats where high profile candidates (eg. Dr Wan Azizah) were contesting. No mahjong game to distract or occupy the voters' attention ;-)

This time we may expect perhaps an 85% turnout because of the mega profile person in Anwar Ibrahim. We may be looking at, say, 50,000 voters to troop to the polling station on 26 August.

Reviewing the last election, the total votes for the 3 State seats numbered 20,093 (call it 20,100 for rounded figures) whereas Dr Pirdaus Ismail only received 16,950. This meant that slightly over 3,000 UMNO voters* who had supported the States' candidates didn’t like him or preferred Dr Wan.

* I am of course simplifying figures by assuming those who had voted for the 3 UMNO State candidates were all Malays. In reality there could be Chinese and Indian voters who had voted for, say, Arif Shah.

With Arif Shah as the UMNO-BN candidate, will these 3,000 Malay voters return to the UMNO banner?

If they do, Arif will enjoy, for a start, around 20,100.

If the MCA and Gerakan succeed in swinging back half of the March 30% swing to Pakatan …

… and again working on some simplified assumptions like 75% Chinese turnout, 60% supporting Arif (based on normal Chinese support for BN = 75% minus 30% swing away in March = 45% plus 15% recovered by 26 August = 60%)

… will give Arif another 1350 votes.

Again, playing with the same sort of simplified assumptions with the Indian voters, the best I can work out in favour for Arif would be just another 400 votes …

… giving Arif a total of 20,100 + 1350 + 400 = 21850

… and allowing for a fair share of the expected additional 5% turnout, Arif gets almost 23,000 votes out of a possible 50,000.

Anwar Ibrahim still wins, but by a smaller majority of 4,000. In my previous post (pre the Kulim Wonder, and without knowing who would be the UMNO candidate) I had guess-timated Anwar's majority to be nearly 11,000.

If UMNO can persuade another 2,001 voter to return to the fold or to vote against Anwar, the de facto leader could well be in trouble.

The Chinese and Indians won’t be swayed by the sodomy allegation so the above assumed Chinese-Indian swing back to BN will probably be the maximum likely. That 2,001 crucial votes will have to come from the Malays.

But of course it’s just kaytee’s amateurish maths based on his perceptions and unscientific assumptions.

33 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  2. KT

    I had been maintaining from the beginning (see my posts on your earlier article) that DSAI won't be enjoying an easy ride. The ride gonna be bloody, brutal and painful for him. I also had predicted that the fight will be much closer.

    Apart from the incident involving Zulkifli Nordin, there are other issues that will certainly influence the election result.

    1. By-election dynamics are different from GE's since there is so much focus from top and much more efforts are poured into it since the stakes are so much higher.

    2. The infighting and discord among UMNO factions that happened during the GE won't be repeated now that Najib will be practically camped in Permatang Pauh. The real reason for the reduced votes for Pirdaus was due to factionalism and infighting within the division. Furthermore, UMNO lost more votes due to unhappiness over (non) payment of allowances to the GE volunteers.

    3. The feeling of the Malay community, especially among those staying in Malay hinterland was one of shock over the result of the GE. The feeling was more accute in Penang where there is a sense of betrayal due to the perception of a great erosion in the political power of the Malays. This was not exactly helped by the Chief Propaganda Officer of Penang, Lim Guan Eng's statements. Anwar's support for the abolishment of NEP, support for DAP's Malaysian Malaysia policy and the latest Khalid Ibrahim's gaffe over UiTM will all add up to create a backlash to PR and especially Anwar in this by election.

    4. The Indians have grown rather tired of HINDRAF hooligans and their battle cry of Makkal Sakthi. While there is support for Hindraf, the level of support has probably reduced from 85% to may be 60% or lower. Furthermore the general agreement among Penang Indians that the PR govt over-promised and under-delivered. Even there are many HINDRAF leaders feel betrayed by PR and DAP. Also Prof Rama is looked upon as DAP's puppet,with the nickname Chief Assistant Office Boy (well I admit, that name was bestowed by yours truly but quickly picked up).

    5. Zulkifli Nordin issue will be played up by MCA and Gerakan as much as Hishamuddin's kris incident. I remember in the last GE, the posters with Hisham in his kris-wielding hero pose was plastered all over Penang. Youtube was full of the video clips of Hisham and other incidents of racist remarks uttered by UMNO members. So this time we can expect MCA and Gerakan to pay in kind with the same strategy.

    6. The final card is Anwar himself. For sure his sodomy charge and support for policies seen as anti-Malay will be used to attack him relentlessly.

    I expect a close fight with the result could swing either way. I still believe the Malay votes, especially the young ones, will be crucial.

    ReplyDelete
  3. bro KT,

    my take is bro AnWar will purposely lose d by election as he does not want to b d PM but he prefers to use a proxy PM to accommodate his agenda & b free to move aroun d world as d Messenger of d Illuminatis.. I mite b wrong but thr again i doubt i'm wrong, heheh..wat can I say..(,")

    SAY NO TO NWO!! SAY NO TO BRO AnWar!!

    p.s. Bro AnWar is frustrated as his wife woz adamant to relinquished her position.. He actually wanted her to b d future PM..:) well u win sum u lose sum..

    ReplyDelete
  4. I think PKR together with the other component parties have a very effective communication system based on sms, email, blogs, malaysiakini-youtube videos, and personal campaigning.

    Their youth are spirited and earnest. And unlike UMNO, PKR being a new party have hardly any skeletons in the closets or misdeameanours.

    The effectiveness of their campaign management is already evident in the March Elections. If this is indeed indicative of their grasp of management, it gives hope indeed of their ability to run the country better than UMNO-BN.

    But first, set your machinery in motion first to win the campaign for the minds and hearts of Permatang Pauh's heartlanders.

    My bet still that Anwar will get a higher majority than Azizah. Doesn't matter if he doesn't. They are a pair. But it will be good for his spirits and also the spirits of PR, and the people of this country.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anwar will very likely win in this election. But there still is a possibility he may lose, or win with a smaller majority. The main thing for Pakatan is not to get complacent & assume this will be a stroll in Botanical Gardens.

    Keep in mind the polling date is on a workday... making it harder for P Pauh voters staying elsewhere & out of state to come down to vote. So you can expect a lower turnout.

    Sure, BN will put more effort into this by-election... including more postal votes & phantoms. They're gonna make sure Anwar doesn't get into Parliament or at least win with a lower percentage.

    It'll be interesting to see how the Malay-Muslim voters will vote. Its likely they will punish the BN again in this one for the price increases & inflation we've been having. But there may be some who will be influenced by UMNO's claims about Malays losing their power. Expect UMNO to use more Arabic words in their rallies to sound more 'Islamic' than PAS.

    But we can be reassured that Chinese & Indian votes will still be in favor of Anwar. The recent behavior by UMNO towards issues like opening up UiTM to nonMalays, and trying to attract PAS using the notions of Malay Supremacy might have killed off whatever support they have amongst the nons-. Also, there was another recent body-snatching incident by Penang's religious department. It doesn't help that the non-Malay BN component parties haven't been really firm in facing their big brother's antics.

    And the fact that the new state govt has been an improvement over the Gerakan one will further complicate BN's effort to attract votes... from all races.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I forgot to add another factor that will be BN's disadvantage in this parliamentary by-election:

    It's the economy, stupid.

    ReplyDelete
  7. You forgot the econmy factor.

    Permatang Pauh is in Penang. The non Malay votes are depends on DAP, not PKR or Anwar! If PKR failed to bring discipline on Zulkifli Noordin, DAP may choose the watching stance.

    Anwar "comeback" need a landslide win.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I heard Lim GE will be declaring a public holiday on 26th (polling day) for Penangites - wah, he supports Anwar so much lah, stating he wants to ensure Malaysia's future PM marches smoothly to Putrajaya.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Dear All

    Forget the BN propaganda that Anwar Ibrahim should win by a "bigger majority" to prove his point.

    A majority is still a majority.

    Did you forget what our Dear Leader said after BN lost the 2/3 majority in Parliament?

    (Anyway, I predict that Anwar will win by a landslide and by a bigger majority)

    Phua Kai Lit

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  10. I agree - this elections would be significantly narrower in terms of majority votes. I think the statutory declarations and other crap have contributed to it.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Yo old timer

    The reason why PR resorted to sms,email, youtube and blogs is because they do not have access to the mainstream media. However,effectiveness of such medium is limited not only due to our relatively low level of internet penetration but also due to the fact that few Malaysians even bothered to read political news on the internet. For example when Jeff Ooi came down to Penang to contest, there was hardly anyone recognised him. Surely a big dent to the supper massive ego of "Malaysia's most popular blogger".

    It is also a known fact that the Pakatan Rakyat had outside help in terms of professional PR advisors as well as some of their own members being trained overseas. I remember reading in the STAR about one of PKR's MP having his training with Barack Obama's internet campaign team, arranged by some shadowly non-profit organisation. Your guess on their actual backers is as good as mine. Also there is another European organisation (which shall remain nameless) that also sponsors politically motivated trips and courses for PR and NGO folks.

    There were some claims that Anwar had help from Turkish advisors and Americans PR experts who really were Isrealis.I can't vouch for this information but this was reported in the mainstream media (the STAR I guess).

    As PR's campaign skills is indicative of their administrative skills, this was surely intended as a joke right ? Well, I am familiar with the situation in Selangor and Penang. And I can tell you that Lim Guan Eng and Khalid Ibrahim are causing incalculable damage to both states with their poor management skills and policies.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Phua Kai Lit

    I disagree...Permatang Pauh is not just PR's stronghold but also DSAI's kampung. If Mak Cik Wan Azizah can obtain 13,000 majority, surely DSAI should get more. Furthermore, as Lim Guan Eng the Chief Propaganda Officer of Penang said, this is a by-election of national importance. Do note also Lim Kit Siang's assertation that this is a referandum of BN's rule since March 8th.

    However, my take is that it will be close. Even if DSAI wins, he could be considered as a loser if he could not obtain a bigger majority.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Dear Killer

    1. Sometimes, I wonder if you and I are living in the same Malaysia!
    I'll say it one more time: this FIL-SIL regime is ruining Malaysia and has to go (and go quickly!)

    2. I'm a sociologist and I have taught political science in the past. This "Anwar must win by a bigger majority or he has actually lost" stuff is BN propagandistic crap. It is a strategy by the loser to claim victory in the face of impending defeat. So what if Anwar wins by a smaller majority? He has still defeated the BN candidate.

    My advice to PKR and the PR is this: ignore this BN propagandistic crap; do not be complacent; hit BN on the inflation rate, the cancer-like corruption, the gross mismanagement of the economy, the abuse of the law; get as many voters out as possibe to the polling booths; have faith that the voters will make the right choice!

    Phua Kai Lit

    ReplyDelete
  14. killer, your statement " I can tell you that Lim Guan Eng and Khalid Ibrahim are causing incalculable damage to both states with their poor management skills and policies" is grossly unfair. These guys have hardly enjoyed 6 months of ministerial authority.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Phua Lai Kit

    That thought crossed my mind too.. I admit I did wonder if you are indeed a resident of the Planet Earth.

    Political science and realpolitik are two very different animals I believe, it is like comparing what DSAI says and what he actually did when he was the DPM.

    As someone who taught political science you surely know that the wishes of the majority in an election must be respected. I also think that Lim Guan Eng is ruining my state but that doesn't mean that he must go and must go quickly. We cannot applying democratic principles only when it suits us and discard it in favour of mobocracy to undermine our political opponents.

    AAB might not be the best PM we ever had but there is no economist in the world would say that Malaysian economy has been managed poorly since Badawi took over. In fact Malaysian economic performance surely been better than most nations in the alst several years. As for corruption and transparency, only myopic manipulators like DSAI and LKS say that it has worsened during Badawi's administration.

    ReplyDelete
  16. KT

    I stand by my statement of these two guys are bumbling incompetents.
    I have a long list of reasons for my claims.

    I know where you are coming from, that we should give them a chance to prove their mettle and 5 mths is too short.

    But I am looking at their strategies and policies. And you don't really have to wait long as these strategies and polices give you an insight on their management skills, style and thought processes.

    Perhaps I will share some of my reasons in another post which is more appropriate. I don't want to hijack this post and divert the topic.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I can see clearly almost None of you spend any significant time in Permatang Pauh, especially the crucial Seberang Jaya area.

    I have lunch there about 3 days a week normally...its almost every day right now....the mood on the ground is very interesting, complicated, all the factors mentioned are there, but the big elephant is the economy.

    One big factor in the Chinese community is the DAP's active role, plus Gerakan and MCA's near death in Seberang Jaya (both parties branches there are right now..."hidup segan mati tak mau")


    I won't be a walkover, but Anwar will be the MP for Permatang Pauh by a big majority - with combined support from the Melayu, Cina, India.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Referring to killer 's 8:37 AM ,comment on this ;
    It is also a known fact that the Pakatan Rakyat had outside help in terms of professional PR advisors as well as some of their own members being trained overseas. I remember reading in the STAR about one of PKR's MP having his training with Barack Obama's internet campaign team, arranged by some shadowly non-profit organisation.

    Well your guess is as good as mine , most probably thru some administrative funds allocated for training from the world bank and arranged by Paul Wolfowitz when he was the CEO of the bank and Anwar is a VP .Or probably thru his friends William Cohen and Madelyn Albright , both Democrats . You can distinctly see all the hyennas in MT where they have shown their skills in group attack or pack attack with their ability to post caricatures , superimposed pictures or doctored photos of anyone . Its only a matter of time these IT specialists will be picked up or sued . These are the cultists mentioned in RPK's article The Cult called PKR .

    On some claims that Anwar had help from Turkish advisors and Americans PR experts who really were Isrealis

    Well killer here's the connection :

    Paul Wolfowitz is the United States Deputy Secretary of Defense, and President George W. Bush's nominee for President of the World Bank.

    Wolfowitz served for three years as U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia during the Reagan administration. Wolfowitz denounced U.S. support for Saddam Hussein during the conflict with Iran.

    Wolfowitz is considered a "neoconservative". He is known for his hawkish views, pro-Israel advocacy and support for the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

    Quote:

    "There's a lot of money to pay for this. It doesn't have to be U.S. taxpayer money. We are dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon." -- Congressional Testimony, March 27, 2003




    - He is a "dual citizen" of Israel. Funny, I always thought America was
    supposed to be run by erm... Americans but apparently not.

    - He is one of the "Four Horsemen" who helped to write the "Project for a
    New American Century", a document written in September 2000 that calls for
    a "process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change" in US
    foreign policy, then even said that domestic political conditions would not
    permit this but "absent some catastrophic and catalysing event - like a new
    Pearl Harbour". One year later, the "new Pearl Harbour" - the September 11
    terrorist attacks - provided the excuse for the "revolutionary" upheaval of
    US policy under Bush.

    Wolfowitz though... many people say Israel uses the USA as its proxy
    to invade its neighbors whilst Israel sits back and relaxes, not having to
    take any blame for any of it because it is America doing the invading!

    William Cohen the US Sec of Defence and Madelyn Albright the US Sec of State were both JEWS and under Clinton's watch , that was why Al Gore came out to make a statement with the US gomen on DSAI sodomy case .

    ReplyDelete
  19. Anwar will win big.That is the people's hope.
    Everybody WANTS A NEW PM NOW!Everybody is sick and tired of this BODOHWI.Everybody wants a clean police and judiciary.
    Anwar is now the present HOPE to clean the mess set by that mother#$$#% TDM.They could'nt care less if Anwar is bi-sexual or a devil in disguise, because they cannot wait anymore.
    This country is SICK with bigots and real sick.We need a DOCTER or a CLEANER to clean the shit we are in.
    Time for a NEW ERA.Time for HOPE!!

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hi Killer

    "As someone who taught political science you surely know that the wishes of the majority in an election must be respected."

    You truly believe that Malaysian elections are free and fair and that they reflect the wishes of the majority? No postal votes in Malaysia? No phantom voters in Malaysia? No vote-buying within UMNO? (Suggestion: read what Muhyiddin said recently about the state of UMNO politics).

    "AAB might not be the best PM we ever had but there is no economist in the world would say that Malaysian economy has been managed poorly since Badawi took over. In fact Malaysian economic performance surely been better than most nations in the alst several years."

    Correct! Compared to the Zimbabwean economy under Mugabe and USA economy under George W. Bush. Have you read about the latest (self-inflicted) inflation
    rate in Malaysia? The many rent-seeking government programmes that cost millions and billions of ringgit in return for low or dubious economic returns? Check out the ICOR! I remember the late MGG Pillai's calculations about how much it costs to build each km of highway in Malaysia.
    Malaysia Boleh!

    Phua Kai Lit

    ReplyDelete
  21. Something that you may only realise if you actually live in Penang and keep a keen eye on the local politics - the March 8 tsunami in Penang was not just a wipeout of the Gerakan and MCA election candidates. The PARTIES themselves have been almost wiped out.

    Koh Tsu Koon wasn't joking when he said it would take BN at least two election terms to recapture Penang.

    Information from my own friends in BN
    Gerakan Bayan Baru branch - zombiefied
    Gerakan Seberang Jaya branch - zombiefied
    MCA Jelutong branch - zombiefied
    MCA Sungai Dua branch - zombiefied

    My term "Zombified" means the branch still exists on paper, but is almost dead in the water. Most of the members either just don't bother to turn up any more or have joined DAP or PKR. More towards PKR, it feels more like their familiar BN/UMNO environment - hahaha Ktemoc laughs.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Phua Kai Lit
    you have taught political science in the past.So what if Anwar wins by a smaller majority? He has still defeated the BN candidate.

    That means he NOT of PM material !!
    If you are the so call PM in waiting and you cannot win with a landslide victory ? Win with a simple majority ? then join the ranks of the others MPs ans Aduns .
    As a lecturer in political science , full time or part time ? In politics there's no sure win , anything or any issue can affect the situation on the ground . In fact for us we dared not even declare that Anwar is in for rough times ! All we are predicting is that he will win but with reduced majority .Killer says , Even if DSAI wins, he could be considered as a loser if he could not obtain a bigger majority.That I absolutely agree with killer .

    And for your wisdom PENANG is on AUTOPILOT . I have mentioned this before LGE is still talking like an opposition leader , he has still not awaken up his deep slumber that he is the government now . Also cannot be having a wife here in Penang as the CM and having a mistress there in Parliament . Its either you LGE divorce your wife or your mistress . There's no pilot in Penang when he attends Parliament seatings . Also he's running around to be seen with Anwar leaving Penang pilotless . Leave all that to LKS , that should be good enough , but LOL still wants publicity ! So Penang is NOT important to him as I see it , well lets wait for PRU13 , thats his D-Day .

    I have to agree with killer's stand that these two guys ( LGE and Khalid )are bumbling incompetents.

    Kitty we are there but we go unannounced . FYI I'm going there after this posting .so guys no reply until after 6pm .

    ReplyDelete
  23. kittykat46
    I am stuck here ,
    Are you aware of the Branch set up difference between Gerakan and MCA ?
    A branch in Gerakan will consists of many divisions whereas in MCA there may be as many as 50 over branches in one division , hence the term Divisional delegates to the party convention .
    therefore;Gerakan Bayan Baru branch - zombiefied
    Gerakan Seberang Jaya branch - zombiefied
    Big trouble !

    MCA Jelutong branch - zombiefied
    MCA Sungai Dua branch - zombiefied
    Sap Sap soi , Jelutong Div. has over 39 branches and Sungai Dua is part of over 40odd branches in Bayan Baru Division . I understand some of their members left and join PKR - opportunists so no regrets.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hi chaptokam

    I taught two years of
    "Intro to Political Science"
    in the American Degree Program
    of a small college. Was a full time
    lecturer whose primary task was to teach sociology. I've always been interested in politics as a real world phenomenon and political science as an academic discipline.

    Was also actively involved in social democratic political activism in the USA (Baltimore).
    Socialism - even of the mildest variety such as social democracy - is nevertheless a lost cause in the
    USA.

    I'm not sure if LGE is bumbling or not. Time will tell. But he has pretty smart political advisers e.g. Liew Chin Tong (whom I know personally).
    A good leader is one who hires the best to assist him/her to rule and also knows how to delegate. The leader does not need to be physically present all the time.

    I can see you are going up to PP.
    I suppose to help the BN guy?
    Since I am partisan and hope that PKR will win big, I can't wish you good luck! ;)

    But as fair-minded Malaysian patriots, I'm sure that both of us wish the election to be free, fair, clean and incident-free!

    Regards

    Phua Kai Lit

    ReplyDelete
  25. chaptokam

    Thanks for the enlightening posts on the Anwar's Jewish /Isreali connections.

    Well I have some info which I didn't post it here due to lack of credible source. I apologise for repeating it here, as I know this could be merely an unfounded rumour.

    What I heard was the American PR advisors were actually ex-Mossad agents on the payroll of this mysterious organisation that supported PR during the GE. What I was told that the money came from an organisation that was private and likely funded out of CIA's "black budget". Not only that this organisation funded the services of these PR experts but also contributed generously to PR's election campaign. According to the same source, DSAI received campaign funds not just for 2008 but since the 1999 GE. Again, I admit I am unsure of the truthfulness of this accusation and I am merely repeating it for "intellectual discourse".

    BTW, what I know for sure is that Mossad indeed has a very capable and strong disinformation department that has no rivals in the world of espionage. They have used this department to completely destroy their enemies and save Isreal's reputation when some scandal been leaked out.

    Another known fact is that some billionaires like Soros have set up NGOs with funds running to hundreds of millions for the promotion of democracy and civil society (does this term sounds familiar? ). These NGOs (Soros Foundation, OSI) are known to fund political parties and dissidents in countries under "totalitarian" rule.

    Other US govt organisations such as USAID,WMD and NED also openly admit funding political parties and it is not inconceivable that PR also benefitted from such generous donors.

    Another shadowly organisation under the guise of NGO is the Asia Foundation. The source of AF's funds are again USAID, World Bank (gasp), UNDP, ADB,etc. This organisation was also provides funds for political parties for the "promotion of democracy".

    In the past there has been numerous accusations that USAID, NED and AF are fronts for CIA for its coverts activities.

    So guys, I leave it to you all to make your own conclussions.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Dear Killer

    Try reading this website:

    www.commondreams.org

    The assertion that Anwar is a US agent is truly far-fetched and out of this world.

    The US neoconservatives are a truly contemptible lot (they are responsible for the mess in Iraq, for example). But being friendly to them does not make one a US agent. Not all the US neocons are Jewish too.

    It is very unlikely that the US Govt wishes to see the BN government replaced and is funding covert activities toward this end. BN regime collaborates closely with George W. Bush regime in the
    "War on Terror"! And Anwar Ibrahim is certainly no anti-American Hugo Chavez. More likely, the present US regime is neutral wrt to BN versus PR. Also, Malaysia is a minor nation and the CIA has bigger fish to fry e.g. destabilising Iran and Venezuela.


    Phua Kai Lit

    Phua Kai Lit

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  28. Dear Phua Kai Lit

    Perhaps you are misreading my mail. In none of my posts I had accused DSAI to be a Jewish or an American agent. I had merely suggested that it is not impossible that PR would have benefitted from some charitable organisations of dubious nature and possible links to the US govt or self-righteous billionaires.

    However, I disagree with your assertion that the US govt would prefer BN over PR. There is no doubt that DSAI has a lot more friends in Washington as we have seen. He is seen in Washington as a moderate Muslim leader who subscribes to the American democratic system and values as well as the so-called the American Business Model (ABM).

    Though the US govt has relatively better relation with AAB as compared to the abrasive Dr M, they would prefer to deal with someone who is more pliable and a cheerleader of the "American way".

    ReplyDelete
  29. Errr Killer,

    I wrote the following: "More likely, the present US regime is neutral wrt to BN versus PR."

    I scratch my head and wonder how you can conclude that I am asserting that the present US regime favours BN govt over PR govt in Malaysia.

    Phua Kai Lit

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  30. Aiyah, sick of your analysis to death. You can't even predict whether it rained yesterday.

    Looks like you have no life without DSAI and probably have to hold your d..k all day long to pass the time away. Get a life man!!
    http://donplaypuks.blogspot.com
    refer my post 'Beijing Olympics Rocked by Scandal One.'

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  31. Just back from P Pauh . Its anybody's game . Looks like everybody's geared up today for the nomination tomorrow and from the look of it the whole place seems like a carnival with bantings everywhere . The two MCA Mininsters are here and everyone seems upbeat .

    By the way Kaytee , your analysis might not be far off . Looks like people from both sides can't do without DSAI . As donplaypuks say : you have no life without DSAI and equally the same to the Anwaristas , they also will have life without DSAI . To them he is their life .
    To us with or without we have a life to carry on .

    On the bright side our Lee Chong Wei is on the way to bring back our first Olympic gold for Malaysia .

    Phua Lai Kit lets look forward to better days ahead . I am quite optimistic . When the tide is at the lowest , it exposes all the rubbish laying on the seabed . This is the time where you clean up the dirt or rubbish . You don't get to see it when its high tide .

    Cheers !!!!

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  32. I have not re-visited this blog since I posted my comment.

    I am only surprised at the sweeping and unsubstantiated claims made by "killer' and "chaptokam" against Anwar.

    Question. Aren't you guys a bit like the low-down Thai press and military junta villifying Thaksin continuously without real proof?

    Secondly, being anonymous as you are, I can only read your aweeping comments and forget it. Why?

    Simple.

    "What's your background and authority in making such authoritative remarks"?

    Yawn! Your "sermonising" is irrelevant 'cause it past my bed time .. and you guys really need to learn to be more succinct in your comments.

    Ta! Ta! chaps (or chap?)

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  33. Hi "donplay etc" 4:36 pm

    If you are commenting on my earlier analyses, I can only shake my head at your inability to debate like a true gentleman (or true lady) without resorting to vulgarity!

    Even your donplay etc name reeks of vulgarity.

    Phua Kai Lit

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