Friday, November 01, 2024

USD AT RM4.37. SINGAPORE SAYS RM WILL WEAKEN THEN STRENGTHEN

 

Friday, November 1, 2024


USD AT RM4.37. SINGAPORE SAYS RM WILL WEAKEN THEN STRENGTHEN



  • Ringgit on course for its worst month in more than nine years 
  • investors scale back amid concerns over the US election.
  • ringgit down more than 6% against US dollar in October
  • biggest monthly loss since August 2015
  • ringgit traded at 4.39 per dollar on Oct 30.
  • ringgit weakened 3% against Sing Dollar 
  • RM3.2993 per Singdollar on Oct 30.
  • run-up to the November 5th US election.
  • ringgit 14% appreciation against US dollar last quarter
  • ringgit sensitivity to yuan and yen
  • OCBC, MUFG Bank predict Ringgit will strengthen if Kamala wins
  • reduce the risks of tariffs that could hurt economies across Asia.
  • MUFG forecasts Ringgit at 4.12 per US dollar by year-end
  • while OCBC sees it gaining to 4.22. BLOOMBERG

 

My Comments : Bottom line is if Alamak Harris wins on Nov 5th (four more days left) the Ringgit may strengthen. If Donald Trump wins then the Ringgit (and a bunch of other currencies) may weaken.  The reasoning being Trump is into tariffs which will impact exporting nations like Malaysia, China etc.

Can Kamala win? In 2016 Donald Trump defeated Senator Hillary Clinton who was (and still is) a far more capable and experienced politician. Just before the 2016 polls a fellow from the US Embassy here said 'I dont think America is ready for a female president'. Hillary was white, she had been the First Lady for two terms yet she lost. Kamala Harris is wannabe 'black', not very experienced and yes she cackles.

Early voting has begun and the polls show Donald Trump leading. There may be the possibility of a landslide for Trump but we will have to wait and see.

So yes the Ringgit may weaken some more if Trump wins.

At the end of the day, the Ringgit just follows wherever the US Dollar wants it to go. 

When the US cut their interest rates (by 0.5% on 20th Sept 2024), the  US Dollar fell and the Ringgit shot up. That was the Ringgit's 14% appreciation against the USD.

Now the USD vs Ringgit is down again, to around RM4.37 / 4.38. If Trump wins on 5th November the Ringgit could go south again. 

  • Folks despite their interest rate cut, the US Dollar is still mighty. 
  • They seem to set the pace. 
  • The Ringgit just follows.

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1 comment:

  1. Monsterball7:16 pm, November 01, 2024

    The "weaken" portion is definitely in process.
    Whether or not there is a recovery depends on the outcome of the US Presidential Elections.

    A Trump.Presidency will be VERY Bad news for the Malaysian Economy.
    which may still be possible to mitigate if Anwar Madani is willing to reasses its current Foreign policy trajectory, but things are not looking good.

    ReplyDelete

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