Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Kh-47M2 Hypersonic Missile: Ukraine’s Kinzhal Shootdown Claims By Patriot SAMs Are All Bogus: OPED



Tuesday, December 26, 2023


Kh-47M2 Hypersonic Missile: Ukraine’s Kinzhal Shootdown Claims By Patriot SAMs Are All Bogus: OPED


Ukraine has periodically made claims of shooting down Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles launched by Russian Aerospace Forces (RuAF) MiG-31K fighters.

On May 4, 2023, the commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, General Mykola Oleschuk, claimed that a Kinzhal had been intercepted using the Patriot air defense (AD) system.

On May 16, 2023, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson claimed interception of all six Kinzhal missiles launched by six RuAF MiG-31K fighters. Confoundingly, the spokesperson admitted that one of the Kinzhal missiles had damaged a Patriot battery!

The joke going around social media is that Ukrainians claim interceptions whenever a Kinzhal strikes the ground in the target area – interception by the ground.

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The fact is – the maneuvering hypersonic Kinzhal missile cannot be intercepted with current technology. In the subsequent paragraphs, I will first explain why the Kinzhal is such a formidable target and then dwell on the physics required to intercept such a target.


Kinzhal Launch Sequence

RuAF MiG-31K aircraft armed with Kinzhal missiles remain airborne and on patrol to the extent possible, unlike in the past when a MiG-31K would get airborne when required to attack a target.

Russia’s inventory of MiG-31K fighters was earlier limited. Izvestia recently reported there are now more than two dozen MiG-31K with the RuAF.

In the past, Ukraine would be alerted to a Kinzhal attack merely by observing a MiG-31K takeoff. Now, it faces Kinzhal attacks without any warning.

The coordinates and radar image of a target are transmitted to a patrolling MiG-31K over a secure data link. The targeting data, often obtained using a radar imaging satellite, can be relayed by the satellite directly to the MiG-31K or through ground control.

The weapons management and targeting system on the MiG-31K uses the received targeting data to program the autopilot of the Kinzhal, loads the target’s radar image into the missile’s seeker, and computes the launch point of the missile. The aircrew then initiates the launch sequence, which is completely automated.

The Kinzhal is essentially an Iskander-M missile with a shortened version of the Iskander-M rocket motor. The MiG-31K launch platform plays the role of the missing length of the rocket motor of the Iskander-M missile.

To launch the Kinzhal, the MiG-31K needs to be at the speed, altitude, and coordinates where Iskander-M would have been, with a similar residual burn time.

Once the missile is ready for release, the aircrew initiates the launch release sequence. The aircraft then flies autonomously, to accurately achieve missile launch parameters. Once the parameters are achieved, the aircrew releases the missile.

Typically, missile launch occurs at around 20 km altitude and a speed of Mach 2.

Upon release, the Kinzhal’s solid propellant rocket motor ignites to propel the missie. The autopilot controls the missile’s trajectory using aerodynamic fins. The missile climbs rapidly to the stratosphere boundary to minimize drag resistance

With a gain in flight altitude, aerodynamic fins become ineffective, and the missile switches to thrust vector control. Upon reaching the stratosphere boundary, the missile flies horizontally and accelerates to Mach 10.

During its entire flight to the target, the missile maneuvers randomly using thrust vector control and later fins to evade missile defense.

Arriving in the target area, the missile switches on its active radar-homing seeker. It continuously compares the radar image seen by its seeker with the target image loaded in its memory prior to launch. As soon as it detects a match, it manoeuvres to strike the target arriving within 10 m or so from the target.
Air Defence Challenge

To intercept a target successfully, an AD system must compute the coordinates of an interception point in airspace where the target and the interceptor missile will arrive at the same time.

The interceptor missile’s acceleration capabilities, the target missile speed, and the radar’s target detection range are critical to a successful interception.

In all cases, the aiming point is well ahead of the current position along the trajectory of the target missile.

If the target detection distance is short and the target speed is very high, as would be the case in a Kinzhal interception, there may be no possible aiming point!


File Image: MiG-31 armed with Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile


In case of a very early detection, it would be possible to compute an aiming point, but it would be based on the current trajectory of the target missile. If the target missile changes trajectory continuously, the aiming point would have to be recomputed Ad Infinitum.

Closing in on the target missile, the inertia of the interceptor missile would rule out accurate tracking of the target.


Conclusion


Intercepting a maneuvering hypersonic missile during its terminal phase is a near impossibility with the current state of technology.

However, there does exist the possibility of intercepting a Kinzhal shortly after its release from a MiG-31K when it’s climbing to the stratosphere boundary and not maneuvering.

However, that would require the AD system, Patriot in this case, to be placed very close to the launch point of the Kinzhal. Considering that the Kinzhal has a range of 2000 km, the chances of a Patriot battery being within the 30 km (range of a PAC-3 interceptor missile) of the Kinzhal launch point are ruled out.

Besides, Ukraine has never presented any physical evidence of a Kinzhal shootdown claim.



Vijainder K Thakur is a retired IAF Jaguar pilot. He is also an author, software architect, entrepreneur, and military analyst.


8 comments:

  1. Vijainder K Thakur has been smoking heavy doses of Hashish

    ReplyDelete
  2. The fact is, there have been multiple cases of Khinzal interception and shoot down by Patriots.
    One may be just a fluke or a missile internal failure.
    Multiple interceptions is real capability.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From above article:

      The joke going around social media is that Ukrainians claim interceptions whenever a Kinzhal strikes the ground in the target area – interception by the ground.

      πŸ˜πŸ˜‚πŸ˜„πŸ˜…πŸ˜†

      Delete
    2. The above article is truly a joke.

      Delete
  3. Vijainder K Thakur write up about the impossibility of intercepting a fully maneuver able hypersonic missile only applies to a truly fully maneuverable missile that can dance , swing 180 degrees and dance like Muhammad Ali throughout its flight - which the Khinzal cannot in a million years.

    The Khinzal is Iskander B Ballistic missile with terminal course correction. Which means it is a ballistic missile capable of minor course corrections towards the last part of its trajectory to ensure it hits its target as accurately as possible.

    Which means it is perfectly able to be intercepted by the highly advanced Patriot .
    Nice try at coping Vijainder K Thakur.

    Vijainder K Thakur needs to Wank harder.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wakakaka, Monster I don't know whether to smile or frown at your desperation to defend your sheer bias, wakakaka again

      Delete
    2. https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3238769/russias-unstoppable-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-performs-poorly-despite-putins-hype-uk-intel-says

      Khinzal performs poorly...too bad poor Ktemoc, clutching at straws.

      Delete
    3. Know nothing fart coming out from equally know nothing biasness!

      Under current missile technologies ABSOLUTELY no any targeted interception in flypath can be achieved while countering supersonic missile.

      The terminal course correction the enabling minor course corrections towards the last part of its trajectory to ensure it hits its target as accurately as possible is within the last mile of a few meter - always less than 1 km. Under that distance, coupling with supersonic flying speed, ant possible interception will enhance bigger destruction to the targeted aim!

      Only a fool commander will allow such act of no brainer.

      Delete