Joe Biden wants a global democratic alliance but does he risk alienating crucial US allies?
President Biden is working to make Americans "feel better about themselves" after the turbulent Trump years, Thomas Graham says.(AP: Melina Mara)
Joe Biden's mission to rebuild America's foreign policy was already facing difficulties well before the fall of Afghanistan; snagged, ironically, on the very ideal he set to define it — the strengthening of democracy.
Many analysts argue the US President should now tone down his soaring rhetoric about building a global democratic bloc and focus instead on healing the fractured American polity.
They warn the Biden administration's current approach risks alienating crucial democratic and non-democratic allies alike and it could drive them into the hands of China.
The democracy paradox
"America is back!" President Biden proclaimed at a G7 meeting in mid-June, before immediately drawing battle lines.
"America is back!" President Biden proclaimed at a G7 meeting in mid-June, before immediately drawing battle lines.
Biden used the G7 summit with some of the world's most powerful leaders to lay out America's foreign policy.(AP: Patrick Semansky)
"I think we are in a contest," he said, "not with China per se, but with ... autocratic governments around the world."
It was a test, he told the gathering, that would ultimately decide whether liberal democratic values would prevail in the rapidly changing political world of the 21st century.
The self-declared leader of the free world then went on to outline the creation of the Build Back Better World Partnership initiative to rival China's Belt and Road initiative and a new global alliance to preserve democracy — a grouping of like-minded nations which America itself intended to lead.
Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations, says the speech wasn't just pitched for international ears.
"Certainly Joe Biden was thinking about how he could make Americans feel better about themselves after four disruptive years of Donald Trump," Mr Graham says.
"But it's also important to remember that Joe Biden deeply believes in democracy."
In fact, the notion of crafting a new global democratic alliance, Mr Graham points out, has been part of Biden's political mantra for decades. It was a central theme of his election campaign in 2019.
Seen in that context, the current turmoil in Kabul represents a particular embarrassment.
"I think we are in a contest," he said, "not with China per se, but with ... autocratic governments around the world."
It was a test, he told the gathering, that would ultimately decide whether liberal democratic values would prevail in the rapidly changing political world of the 21st century.
The self-declared leader of the free world then went on to outline the creation of the Build Back Better World Partnership initiative to rival China's Belt and Road initiative and a new global alliance to preserve democracy — a grouping of like-minded nations which America itself intended to lead.
Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations, says the speech wasn't just pitched for international ears.
"Certainly Joe Biden was thinking about how he could make Americans feel better about themselves after four disruptive years of Donald Trump," Mr Graham says.
"But it's also important to remember that Joe Biden deeply believes in democracy."
In fact, the notion of crafting a new global democratic alliance, Mr Graham points out, has been part of Biden's political mantra for decades. It was a central theme of his election campaign in 2019.
Seen in that context, the current turmoil in Kabul represents a particular embarrassment.
Injured people taken to a Kabul hospital after suicide bombings outside the city's airport in August.
Far from preserving and strengthening democracy, the speedy withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, and that country's subsequent collapse, has left a fledgling democratic nation to fall into the hands of authoritarian extremists.
It's a point that Chinese state media has sought to capitalise on ever since.
"The death knell of US hegemony" was the way Xinhua News Agency described events, warning nations in the Indo-Pacific, particularly Taiwan, that the United States was a paper tiger and ultimately an unreliable ally.
Far from preserving and strengthening democracy, the speedy withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, and that country's subsequent collapse, has left a fledgling democratic nation to fall into the hands of authoritarian extremists.
It's a point that Chinese state media has sought to capitalise on ever since.
"The death knell of US hegemony" was the way Xinhua News Agency described events, warning nations in the Indo-Pacific, particularly Taiwan, that the United States was a paper tiger and ultimately an unreliable ally.
Ni biasa lah dengan negeri US
More pragmatism, less polemic
Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Thailand's Chulalongkorn University, says the situation in Afghanistan has damaged US credibility in the South Asia region.
But he told the BBC that the extent of that damage in the long term depended on where Washington goes from here.
"If [the US] fully resource their Indo-Pacific strategy, this could be a more focused foreign policy for the Biden administration, away from the Middle East and the wars that cannot be won," he said. Biden's commitment to US partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region, as detailed in the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance paper in March, could be key.
Professor Pongsudhirak's comments came as US Vice-President Kamala Harris was dispatched on a diplomatic mission to South-East Asia to bolster confidence in the United States' ongoing commitment to the region, visiting both Vietnam and Singapore.
But notably, for an administration centered on preserving and strengthening democratic values, neither [Vietnam or Singapore] fits the liberal democratic bill: the first is a one-party state and the second could best be described as a nominal democracy, where elections are conducted regularly, but where the governing party has never lost a vote.
The China syndrome
For Susannah Patton, from the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, the realities of working with countries that aren't an obvious fit underpin the dangers of adopting a values-led approach to international relations.
"Democracies should work more with other democracies to strengthen their resilience," she says, "but likewise I think almost everybody agrees that, at times, democracies will need to work with non-democracies."
"The idea that President Biden has spoken about is that the US is engaged in systems competition with China — that, as he has put it, the world is at an inflection point between democracy and autocracy," Ms Patton says.And if countering China's political and economic aggression in the Indo-Pacific is the ultimate goal, as Ms Patton suggests, then White House rhetoric about establishing a new Cold-War style alliance risks backfiring on the United States.
"For many countries in the region, the real source of China's appeal or attractiveness is not its ideological system, but they do see advantages in the economic opportunities that working with China provides."
And those "hedging" countries, as Ms Patton describes them, don't want to be forced to make a choice between American values and Chinese money.
For Susannah Patton, from the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, the realities of working with countries that aren't an obvious fit underpin the dangers of adopting a values-led approach to international relations.
"Democracies should work more with other democracies to strengthen their resilience," she says, "but likewise I think almost everybody agrees that, at times, democracies will need to work with non-democracies."
"The idea that President Biden has spoken about is that the US is engaged in systems competition with China — that, as he has put it, the world is at an inflection point between democracy and autocracy," Ms Patton says.And if countering China's political and economic aggression in the Indo-Pacific is the ultimate goal, as Ms Patton suggests, then White House rhetoric about establishing a new Cold-War style alliance risks backfiring on the United States.
"For many countries in the region, the real source of China's appeal or attractiveness is not its ideological system, but they do see advantages in the economic opportunities that working with China provides."
And those "hedging" countries, as Ms Patton describes them, don't want to be forced to make a choice between American values and Chinese money.
But Australia chose American values (whatever it was/is at a certain point in time) to Chinese money
Hans Kundnani from Chatham House, a London-based think tank, believes many European nations also feel uncomfortable about US attempts to rally them under a flag of liberal democracy.
"People in the Biden administration would like to think that democracies all share the same interests, particularly in relation to China, but it's just much, much more complex than that," Professor Kundnani says.
"You see that particularly in terms of the difficulties the Biden administration is having getting Europeans to buy into this kind of transatlantic approach to China.
"I think the Biden administration recognises some of those difficulties or is beginning to recognise some of those difficulties, which is why I'm sceptical that this will eventually turn into a formal alliance," he says.
A matter of definition
There's also the question of what it means to be democratic.
Countries like India and the Philippines may be democracies on paper, Professor Kundnani points out, but their leaders are increasingly autocratic.
And some current NATO members like Hungary and Turkey continue to slide toward one-party rule and openly reject the idea of liberalism.
American leaders routinely describe their nation as a beacon of democracy. But the American political system has been greatly tested in recent years.Then there's the United States itself. Even if a new global alliance were to be formed, would the US be fit to lead it?
Former president Donald Trump stands accused of aiding an insurgency, while US polling suggests a majority of Republican voters believe Biden stole last year's election.
There's also the question of what it means to be democratic.
Countries like India and the Philippines may be democracies on paper, Professor Kundnani points out, but their leaders are increasingly autocratic.
And some current NATO members like Hungary and Turkey continue to slide toward one-party rule and openly reject the idea of liberalism.
American leaders routinely describe their nation as a beacon of democracy. But the American political system has been greatly tested in recent years.Then there's the United States itself. Even if a new global alliance were to be formed, would the US be fit to lead it?
Former president Donald Trump stands accused of aiding an insurgency, while US polling suggests a majority of Republican voters believe Biden stole last year's election.
Thomas Graham says many people in Asia and the West remain unconvinced that America's internal political ructions have been put to rest.
"One of the fundamental questions that everyone is asking is who is the aberration, Trump or Biden? What's going to happen in 2024?
"Former president Trump has not faded away as many had hoped. He is still toying with the idea of running again in 2024. Even if he doesn't, it's quite likely that the Republican nominee will be someone who will pursue a foreign policy quite similar to Donald Trump's.
At CPAC, Donald Trump hinted he may run for US president again.
"So, the fears and concerns are very real, they are not exaggerated," he says.
Mr Graham believes President Biden needs to rework his foreign policy approach, to think not in smaller terms, but in more pragmatic terms.
"The President would be wise to start with a much less ambitious agenda, not gathering a community of democracies but trying to work with some key democratic allies to try to defend democracy in the areas where it has taken root."
And, he says, it's finally time for America to ditch the missionary approach to democracy that took over US foreign policy in the 20th century.
"Given the very real domestic problems of the United States — the deep polarisation, the political dysfunction — the first task, if a president is interested in advancing democracy worldwide, is healing the United States and putting the United States on a firmer democratic foundation."
"So, the fears and concerns are very real, they are not exaggerated," he says.
Mr Graham believes President Biden needs to rework his foreign policy approach, to think not in smaller terms, but in more pragmatic terms.
"The President would be wise to start with a much less ambitious agenda, not gathering a community of democracies but trying to work with some key democratic allies to try to defend democracy in the areas where it has taken root."
And, he says, it's finally time for America to ditch the missionary approach to democracy that took over US foreign policy in the 20th century.
"Given the very real domestic problems of the United States — the deep polarisation, the political dysfunction — the first task, if a president is interested in advancing democracy worldwide, is healing the United States and putting the United States on a firmer democratic foundation."
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