Gerakan's chances in Penang?

Malaysiakini - With eye on Penang, Gerakan says it has many CM candidates to offer (extracts):

Gerakan was once the dominant force in Penang, having led the state from 1969 until 2008.

However, the party was swept out of the state in the 2008 general election, with DAP taking over the state government, and failed to recapture any seats in the 2013 election.

Both MCA and Gerakan emerged from the 13th general election at their lowest ebbs, with MCA only winning seven parliamentary seats and 11 state seats, while Gerakan only managed one parliamentary seat and three state seats nationwide.

Koh Tsu Koon, CM Penang until March 2008

nice bloke but in wrong party 

However, Mah pulled off Gerakan's biggest upset against DAP in the Teluk Intan by-election a year later, capturing the seat and securing a cabinet position for the party.

In this post I will not be talking about Gerakan's or BN's chances of winning Penang. that's because I doubt Gerakan will have a snowflake's chance in hell of ever winning back the affection of Penangites.

Penangites are fairly conservative when it comes to politics (read that as elections) and are rather reluctant to change or experiment.

I admit younger Malaysians, those who haven't live through the earlier periods of our national history are likely to be more adventurous but at the same time are also easily influenced due to their inexperience, immaturity and educational-hubris (they think they know it all), wakakaka.

But in general, Penangites especially the womenfolk, are indeed conservative. They don't like change but when they find a reason to do so, that is, change, they'll change in a big way, and then revert back to their conservative traits.

For example, take 1969 when Penangites was fed up with MCA and changed mighty BIG, sweeping Perikatan (Alliance-MCA) out and voting Gerakan in. Having done that, Penangites reverted to their conservative nature and kept Gerakan in power for 40 years.

1969 outgoing Penang CM Wong Pow Nee
his MCA was wiped out

1969 incoming Penang CM Lim Chong Eu (Gerakan)  

Then in 2008, being fed up with UMNO and its kutu nominated-councillors, they did it again, changing humongously when we saw Gerakan-MCA** annihilated and Pakatan (led by the DAP) coming into power. Pakatan has stayed as state government for the last 10 years.

2008 outgoing Penang CM Koh Tsu Koon
his Gerakan (and  MCA) were wiped out 

2008 incoming Penang CM Lim Guan Eng (DAP)  

** MCA was only allowed back in Penang in 1972 after the formation of BN when Tun Razak as Chair of BN played Gerakan out by his 'divide & conquer' (the Chinese parties) strategy.

There was nothing more ridiculous than an UMNO man deciding on Gerakan giving some seats to a MCA in Penang who lost all its Penang seats, and also having a final say on Gerakan and MCA candidates.

A coalition means a number of political parties joined hands together to gain power, and not merged into one single political entity with one Boss who decides on the election candidates for every component party. Imagine Pakatan Boss telling the DAP he (or she) does not want Tony Pua in Petaling Jaya Utara?

But who was going to tell Tun Razak that in 1972, such was the effect of May 13 as well as Penang's economic struggles on Lim Chong Eu's mind. Earlier, Lim Chong Eu did that in 1959 and for his MCA-bravado was manoeuvred out by Tunku and other MCA people like the late Tan Siew Sin.

As I have narrated, Pakatan (or more correctly, DAP) will remain in power after GE14. Maybe they may lose a seat or two or three but there will be no dramas.

My topic in this post is the last extracted paragraph of Malaysiakini above (highlighted in yellow) and reproduced here for your convenient perusal:

However, Mah pulled off Gerakan's biggest upset against DAP in the Teluk Intan by-election a year later, capturing the seat and securing a cabinet position for the party.

After DAP's Seah Leong Peng passed away due to his health in 2014. Earlier in the 2013 GE, Seah had whacked Gerakan president Mah Siew Keong and an independent candidate kau kau by 7,313 votes.

On that basis, Mah would have been the underdog in the by-election. But Lim Kit Siang altered that, when he decided to cast his political secretary, sweetie Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud, a young political novice, into the by-election as the DAP candidate.

In the by-election, 60,349 voters were eligible to cast their votes but because it was not a weekend (thanks to the EC) the turnout was only 67.39% or 40,668 voters. To wit, almost 20,000 voters (short of 300 plus voters) did not or were not able to case their votes.

Officially, Mah won by a razor thin majority of 238 votes, obtaining 20,157 against Dyana's 19,919 votes.

Reminder: This was the hairy (experienced) president of Gerakan winning by 238 votes against an inexperienced young female Malay candidate aged only 27, and in a battleground which belonged to Mah, as Teluk Intan was his hometown.

Initially (according to Finance Twitter) there were screams of cheating when the final total votes did not tally with the voters turnout announced by Election Commission earlier. Finally, as usual and expected, Malaysia Election Commission conveniently revised the voters turnout to 67.4% from 66.7%. The final results is BN won 20,157 votes, while DAP got 19,919 votes hence the 238 majority (plus 505 spoilt votes).

505 spoilt votes were double that of the winning majority of 238. Tsk tsk tsk.

There were other factors adverse to Dyana. She was effectively a parachute candidate where local DAP members were NOT consulted so you worked that out why those locals were not 101% behind her.

Additionally, she was sabotaged kau kau by all sorts of sleazy fake photos circulating around which turned the more conservative Malay (PAS) voters against her. Moreover rumours had it that PAS and PKR were less than enthusiastic about her candidature.

A fake bikini photograph of DAP candidate Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud, which first appeared on the Internet, re-emerged in a number of Malay villages a week into the Teluk Intan by-election campaign.

Netizens pointed out that the photo, which was earlier posted in pro-BN blogs, is really that of Filipino actress Pauleen Luna.

But the most interesting results were the votes obtained by Mah. He obtained in his hometown 20,157 against Dyana's 19,919.

A year earlier, in the 2013 general election when Mah lost to the late Seah, he obtained 20,086 votes to Seah's 27,399.

Despite the poorer turnout in the by-election in 2014 (by 20,000 eligible voters), Mah obtained slightly MORE votes or if you like simple calculations, exactly the same number of votes two years in a row, wakakaka.

In other words, as Finance Twitter said after the 2014 by-election, Does this also mean the same number of voters in 2013 had turn up 100% to vote for Mah this time? Obviously not, silly. In short, the expired and recycle Mah Siew Keong’s votes remain the same despite lower turnout while DAP’s votes were slashed from 27,399 last year to 19,919 now (*wink-wink*).

[...]

Most importantly, why more than 10% swing in Chinese and Indian votes to the evil BN?

[...] in order to win, opposition must win with a huge majority. Election Commission is an expert in the game of numbers – early voters, absentee voters, turnout percentage and so on. A small razor thin majority will not help as the bias Election Commission is capable and ever ready of pulling rabbit out of hat – sudden extra ballot boxes after a blackout, if the need arises.

Wakakaka.

But Finance Twitter also said some non-Malays could have cast 'protest votes' against Pakatan's PAS revitalised interest in Hudud.

In the end, I have to say Malaysiakini's journalist Lu Wei Hoong was incorrect in writing that Mah pulled off Gerakan's biggest upset against DAP in the Teluk Intan by-election a year later because the DAP candidate, Dyana Sofya, was the underdog in that by-election.

Dyana was then an inexperienced young female Malay who was parachuted into Teluk Intan and who had sleazy stuff launched against her reputation, contesting against the experienced party president of Gerakan in his hometown, all these apart from the EC's usual magic in razor-thin majority elections.

Mah should be more careful in GE14. both in Penang and Teluk Intan, wakakaka.