Will Iran Use North Korean Hwasong-10 Ballistic Missiles in its Next Round of Strikes on Israel?
Middle East , Missile and Space
Following the cessation of Iranian-Israeli hostilities in a ceasefire June 24, 11 days after they had been initiated, speculation has continued to grow regarding how Iran may respond to a possible new wave of attacks on its territory. Prior Iranian strikes on Israeli targets made use of a wide range of missiles, from the lower end Shahab-3 which began to enter service in the late 1990s, to the solid fuelled Fattah which uses a hypersonic glide vehicle for guidance. While Iran’s ballistic missile development has for decades relied heavily on components and technology transfers from North Korea, the country has also procured a small number of North Korean missiles ‘off the shelf’. Although the vast majority of these procurements were short ranged Hwasong-5 and Hwasong-6 models sold during the 1980s and 1990s, a small number of Hwasong-10 missiles were also reportedly transferred. When acquired in the mid-2000s, they were by far the most capable in the Iranian arsenal.
U.S. and South Korean intelligence reported the Hwasong-10’s entry into service in 2006, after reports in January that year indicated that it had been flight tested in Iran under North Korean supervision. These exports were a particularly sensitive issue at a time when a Western attack on Iran was under consideration. In 2009 a secret telegram distributed by the office of the U.S. Secretary of State highlighted concerns that the Hwasong-10’s engine “represents a substantial advance in North Korea’s liquid propellant technology,” and “allows North Korea to build even longe range missiles – or shorter range missiles with greater payload capacity – than would be possible using Scud-type technology.” Experts would note that footage of Hwasong-10 engine testing “showed a plume with a much clearer colour than Scud-type engines using simple IRNFA and Kerosene propellants, indicating a more energetic propellant with revolutionary implications for the performances of its future missiles. This was one of the clearest indications that the country’s missile program had reached a far more advanced stage.” An enhanced longer ranged variant of the missile able to strike up to 4000 kilometres away entered service in the Korean People’s Army in 2016, but was quickly followed by its more advanced successor the Hwasong-12 in 2017, and by the next generation Hwasong-16 in 2024.
If reports regarding the transfer of Hwasong-10 ballistic missiles are correct, they may be utilised in future rounds of Iranian strikes on Israeli or Western targets. The missile class’ primary effect on Iranian security, however, appears to have been the transfer of related technologies allowing Iran to develop the Khorramshahr series of ballistic missiles, which are the most capable in its solid fuelled arsenal. The most modern missile class in this family, the Kheibar Shekan, is currently Iran’s sole ballistic missile class known to have been equipped with multiple warheads, which has placed a significantly greater strain on Israeli air defences. Iran just days before the initiation of Israeli attacks first tested a new variant of the Kheibar Shekan, which integrated a particularly large 2000 kilogram payload. The variant is expected to carry more reentry vehicles, with a significant possibility remaining that its service entry will be accelerated at a time when such missiles have the potential to cause significant difficulties for Israeli air defence efforts. While the transfer of Hwasong-10 technologies to Iran is near certain, the transfer of complete missiles two decades ago, the numbers that may have been delivered, and Iranian plans for their use, all remain uncertain.
Watch what happens ( and has happened ) to Iran's TEL's.. every time they get used to launch missiles.
ReplyDeleteZion has destroyed more than 50% of these precious Iranian TEL's.
Every time they get used, they get targetted.
THAT is a key reason why Iran rapidly agreed to a ceasefire. Their missile rate of fire was exponentially diminishing, no matter how many missiles Iran had left, as the idiot Colonel Wilkinson said Iran still has thousands of missiles capable of hitting Israel... but they are useless without TEL launchers.
What is Iran’s problem with Isaac? Iran was the second Ishmael country (after Türkiye) to recognize Isaac in 1948. For 30 years it was great. No “Palestine Square” in Central Tehran with Isaac Doomsday Clock. It all went downhill after Ayah-Toh-Leow came in 1979.
ReplyDelete