How Umno could regain
PM’s post after next
general election
Malaysian voters must get off the fence, with three out of four scenarios for GE16 showing an Umno PM to be the likely outcome.
There are four possible scenarios in the political battle fronts for the next general election (GE16), which must be held by February 2028 at the latest.
I will discuss each of these scenarios and the reasons for them as well as the likelihood of the outcome. This is an important scenario for Malaysians to ponder because there is a strong case to argue that Barisan Nasional will regain power in Putrajaya.
Unity coalition victory
In the first scenario, Pakatan Harapan under Anwar Ibrahim may form a strong coalition with BN and the Borneo bloc of Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).
The only stumbling block would be the fate of PKR and DAP in Sabah and Sarawak. Will they be assimilated into the coalition or told to lie low and allow a no-contest against the GPS and GRS groups?
PN decimated
If this problem can be resolved, I foresee a strong coalition that could decimate the Perikatan Nasional coalition of PAS, Bersatu and Gerakan. PN is now weakened after the Nenggiri assault and the pronouncement of their
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PN could lose about half of their parliamentary seats and could even lose Terengganu and Perlis to the unity coalition of PH-BN-GPS-GRS.
If the unity coalition wins, then Anwar Ibrahim would remain the prime minister.
BN plus Borneo bloc
In the second scenario, BN may go off and form their traditional coalition with the Borneo bloc, and go up against PN and PH in three-cornered fights.
Why would BN do this? As Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh has said, BN needs to reclaim its glory to save former prime minister Najib Razak and to bring about the return of Malay dominance in government.
If Umno wins big in the coming Makhkota by-election, BN can then dream big instead of being in PH’s shadow.
How will Malaysia fare in a three cornered general election? I predict that BN will secure victory but not with a two-third majority, but by enough to place an Umno person in the prime minister’s post again.
Malay dominance
In the third scenario, BN could team up with PN and the Borneo bloc. However, to do so, PAS would have to be left to its present four states (Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu) and can never venture into Sabah and Sarawak.
PAS would also have to agree to allow Umno to hold the prime minister’s post as none of the Borneo bloc would accept an MP from PAS as prime minister.
In this scenario, PH will be annihilated. Malaysia will have a totally Malay-dominated government with only the Borneo bloc to temper any extremist tendencies of the Malay bloc of Bersatu, Umno and PAS.
PH vs the rest
In the fourth scenario, PH will go up against BN, GPS, GRS and also PN, with five-way fights in Sabah and Sarawak but three-cornered fights in West Malaysia between BN, PH and PN.
This scenario would probably favour PH, although it may not fare well in Sabah and Sarawak.
When the dust settles, there will be a hung parliament and PH may have to work with BN, GPS and GRS again. So, it would be back to square one.
Back to an Umno PM
But I do not think that this scenario would see Anwar being the prime minister. My best bet is that it would be an Umno candidate. Thus, in three out of four scenarios, Umno will win the main prize.
After all is said and done, Malaysians must take this scenario very seriously and decide now who they wish to support.
There is so much mistrust unfairly laid on Anwar and the unity government that I feel Malaysians need a rude awakening. Continuing with such an attitude would be like falling asleep at the wheel until an accident fatally decides our fate as a nation.
Decision time
Our future is in our hands now, not in two or three years’ time when GE16 is called. We all must decide because we do not have the option to abstain. Abstention is an act that refuses to accept reality and or the need to adapt until such time a better solution is presented.
There will never be the absolute best political leader or party; the rakyat must alway make do with what we have.
Abstaining will only ensure the wrong party will prevail.
Having the courage to vote and choose the best of what we have is an act of both intelligence and strategic thinking rather than to take the easy way out, nursing an ego that sulks over not having the ideal choice.
There are no ideal choices in real life. The real choices are the best and the most that we will ever have. At the very least, we still have a choice to choose the one we think comes closest to our ideals.
The future of Malaysia has always been within our realm of choice. It is up to us to read the situation and accept that any government produced by a general election is a work in progress until the next elections.
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