Military Watch: 

Iranian President Raisi Killed in Helicopter Crash: Examining the Consequences and Speculation of Foreign Involvement

Middle East , Foreign Relations

May-20th-2024

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Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi

On May 19, 2024 Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were killed in a helicopter crash near the city of  Varzaqan. Seven other passengers including governor-general of East Azerbaijan province Malek Rahmati, and representative of the Supreme Leader in East Azerbaijan Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, were also killed in the incident, which was first reported as a hard landing before rescue teams confirmed that the helicopter had been completely burned. The incident left Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as acting president, which represents the second most senior political office in the country below the position of Supreme Leader held by Ali Khamenei since 1989. The death of President Raisi has raised widespread speculation of foreign involvement, and follows the consecutive assassinations by the country’s Western adversaries and by Israel of multiple figures across the country’s political and military leadership over the past five years. The helicopter crash comes at a time of particularly high tensions between Iran and both the Western world and Israel, and a month after exchanges of air and missile strikes between Iranian and Israeli forces.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Quds Force General Qasem Soleimani

President Raisi remains one of the two most significant figures to have been killed in recent years, with his death following the assassination of the country’s most senior military official General Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in a CIA drone strike on January 4, 2020. The American operation benefitted from Israeli intelligence support, and was responded to with a missile strikes on U.S. military facilities in Iraq which caused over 100 American casualties. Where General Soleimani was considered the second most powerful figure within Iran, despite not having a political position, President Raisi came to be similarly referred to by analysts following his election in June 2021. With Supreme Leader Khamenei now 85 years old, the loss of younger figures in the Iranian leadership represents a particularly significant blow. Notable other examples of assassinations of Iranian leaders have ranged from Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps  Brigadier General Seyed Razi Mousavi, one of the country’s most senior military leaders, who was killed in an Israeli air strike on December 25, and leading nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahavadi who was assassinated on November 27, 2020.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi

Speculation of an assassination attempt on the Iranian president has centred around the unusual arrival of a U.S. Air Force C-130 aircraft in Azerbaijan that closely coincided with Raisi’s departure, with sources positing that electronic warfare could have been used to force his helicopter into a crash. With the president having been flown in an American Bell 212, which Iran acquired in significant numbers in the 1970s, the Pentagon’s high familiarity with the aircraft and its avionics was highlighted in these speculative assessments. The accident is by far the most prominent in the history of the Bell 212 which otherwise has one of the most unblemished safety records despite its longevity in service. No such accusations have been made by Iran, however, with the circumstances surrounding the crash remaining highly uncertain. The death of Ebrahim Raisi is particularly significant as it not only comes at a time of escalated conflict, but also amid ongoing questions regarding Ali Khamenei’s succession. Raisi was considered the leading candidate to take over office, much as Khamenei had himself served as president from 1981-89 under his predecessor Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini. 

Ali Khamenei (left) and Ebrahim Raisi

The death of key figures in the leadership has notably drawn parallels to the final years of the Soviet Union, when deaths across the country’s leadership were key to paving the way to a rise to power of a new elite more favourable to the interests of the country’s Western adversaries. The death of Khamenei’s leading potential successor, following the assassination of the country’s most decorated military officer four years prior, could similarly deeply shake the Iranian leadership and facilitate the rise to power of leaders with political leanings more favourable to Western interests. While the full consequences of the Iranian president’s death remain highly uncertain, as does much regarding its circumstances, it is expected to be one of the most significant incidents in the country’s decades long conflict with the Western Bloc states led by the U.S. and with its regional adversary Israel.