China’s Pelosi bombast shows insecurity over Taiwan, say analysts
Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi posing with her delegation upon their arrival at Sungshan Airport in Taipei August 2, 2022. — Handout by Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AFP
Wednesday, 03 Aug 2022 9:18 AM MYT
BEIJING, Aug 3 — China’s tough rhetoric around US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan reveals deep insecurity about Washington’s shifting stance towards the island, analysts told AFP, as well as efforts to distract from economic woes at home.
The 82-year-old lawmaker landed in Taipei late last night — becoming the highest-profile American official to set foot there in 25 years.
But for days before the military plane carrying her landed at Songshan Airport, Beijing wielded increasingly bellicose language, issuing threats of “consequences” and making demonstrations of military force.
China held live-fire drills across the strait from Taiwan over the weekend, while Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of nationalist tabloid Global Times, suggested that Beijing could “forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane” or even “shoot them down”.
But analysts told AFP that beneath the bombast there is insecurity, with China’s rulers threatened by what they perceive as increasing efforts by the US and Western allies to foster relationships with Taiwan and encourage the island’s independence.
At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping is anxious to project strength against the United States — its greatest military and economic rival — ahead of a key political meeting expected to secure him an unprecedented third term.
Show of strength
Last week, Xi warned his US counterpart Joe Biden in a call that the United States shouldn’t “play with fire” when it comes to Taiwan.
The aggressive message serves to reinforce the Chinese leader’s domestic image ahead of his expected political coronation at the 20th Party Congress this autumn, said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London.
“As a strongman leader, the last thing he would want to show is any sign of weakness,” Tsang told AFP.
Drumming up nationalist sentiment also serves to distract from China’s slowing economy and growing public impatience with Beijing’s harsh zero-Covid restrictions that have dampened the mood in what would have been a jubilant year for Xi.
“For the Chinese communist party, there are two pillars of legitimacy — economic growth and nationalism,” Willy Lam, a Hong Kong-based Chinese politics analyst, told AFP.
Headlines and aggressive messaging on Taiwan have been “diverting the attention of the Chinese public away from economic problems”, he said.
Dire strait
There are also deep-rooted frustrations in Beijing over Washington’s shifting attitudes toward Taiwan.
China considers the self-ruled, democratic island as its territory and has vowed to one day reclaim it, by force if necessary.
Beijing’s sabre-rattling stems in large part from a perception that the United States’ engagement with Taiwan has become more proactive and threatening to the mainland’s interests in recent years, said Li Mingjiang, associate professor of international relations at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
Since the Trump administration, some in Beijing believe Washington appears to have become increasingly “supportive of Taiwan independence”, Li told AFP.
Chinese diplomats have complained that the United States is no longer honouring what it claims is a binding tenet of bilateral relations, the “One China” policy, pointing to arms deals between Washington and Taipei.
Visits to Taiwan by politicians from regional neighbours as well as Europe and the US have also increased.
Xi is “getting very impatient and irritated by the fact that in the past year senior leaders... not just from the US but from Japan, the EU and so forth have been visiting Taiwan,” Lam, the Hong Kong-based analyst, said.
At the same time, there is a greater sense of distinctive Taiwanese identity among the younger generation.
Combined with the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s pro-independence agenda, this means that to Beijing’s elite “the whole Taiwan issue does not really look positive,” Li said.
Chinese leaders are turning to fiery rhetoric to “discourage the development of cross-strait relations and US-Taiwan relations from becoming even more challenging for mainland China,” he said.
‘The last thing Xi wants’
Despite all its aggressive posturing, few believe Beijing wants an active military conflict against the United States and its allies over Taiwan — just yet.
“The last thing Xi wants is an accidental war ignited,” Titus Chen, an associate professor of political science at the National Sun Yat-Sen University in Taiwan, said.
Multiple scholars noted that Beijing’s military capabilities still lag behind Washington’s, and told AFP that recent military drills, while clearly intended to be intimidating, fell short of targeting areas immediately adjacent to the Taiwanese coast.
“Xi’s Plan B would be to explain away, via (Chinese Communist Party) propaganda and thought control system, the sense of embarrassment or humiliation that Pelosi’s Taiwan visit brings to Beijing,” Chen said. — AFP
Wednesday, 03 Aug 2022 9:18 AM MYT
BEIJING, Aug 3 — China’s tough rhetoric around US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan reveals deep insecurity about Washington’s shifting stance towards the island, analysts told AFP, as well as efforts to distract from economic woes at home.
The 82-year-old lawmaker landed in Taipei late last night — becoming the highest-profile American official to set foot there in 25 years.
But for days before the military plane carrying her landed at Songshan Airport, Beijing wielded increasingly bellicose language, issuing threats of “consequences” and making demonstrations of military force.
China held live-fire drills across the strait from Taiwan over the weekend, while Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of nationalist tabloid Global Times, suggested that Beijing could “forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane” or even “shoot them down”.
But analysts told AFP that beneath the bombast there is insecurity, with China’s rulers threatened by what they perceive as increasing efforts by the US and Western allies to foster relationships with Taiwan and encourage the island’s independence.
At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping is anxious to project strength against the United States — its greatest military and economic rival — ahead of a key political meeting expected to secure him an unprecedented third term.
Show of strength
Last week, Xi warned his US counterpart Joe Biden in a call that the United States shouldn’t “play with fire” when it comes to Taiwan.
The aggressive message serves to reinforce the Chinese leader’s domestic image ahead of his expected political coronation at the 20th Party Congress this autumn, said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London.
“As a strongman leader, the last thing he would want to show is any sign of weakness,” Tsang told AFP.
Drumming up nationalist sentiment also serves to distract from China’s slowing economy and growing public impatience with Beijing’s harsh zero-Covid restrictions that have dampened the mood in what would have been a jubilant year for Xi.
“For the Chinese communist party, there are two pillars of legitimacy — economic growth and nationalism,” Willy Lam, a Hong Kong-based Chinese politics analyst, told AFP.
Headlines and aggressive messaging on Taiwan have been “diverting the attention of the Chinese public away from economic problems”, he said.
Dire strait
There are also deep-rooted frustrations in Beijing over Washington’s shifting attitudes toward Taiwan.
China considers the self-ruled, democratic island as its territory and has vowed to one day reclaim it, by force if necessary.
Beijing’s sabre-rattling stems in large part from a perception that the United States’ engagement with Taiwan has become more proactive and threatening to the mainland’s interests in recent years, said Li Mingjiang, associate professor of international relations at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
Since the Trump administration, some in Beijing believe Washington appears to have become increasingly “supportive of Taiwan independence”, Li told AFP.
Chinese diplomats have complained that the United States is no longer honouring what it claims is a binding tenet of bilateral relations, the “One China” policy, pointing to arms deals between Washington and Taipei.
Visits to Taiwan by politicians from regional neighbours as well as Europe and the US have also increased.
Xi is “getting very impatient and irritated by the fact that in the past year senior leaders... not just from the US but from Japan, the EU and so forth have been visiting Taiwan,” Lam, the Hong Kong-based analyst, said.
At the same time, there is a greater sense of distinctive Taiwanese identity among the younger generation.
Combined with the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s pro-independence agenda, this means that to Beijing’s elite “the whole Taiwan issue does not really look positive,” Li said.
Chinese leaders are turning to fiery rhetoric to “discourage the development of cross-strait relations and US-Taiwan relations from becoming even more challenging for mainland China,” he said.
‘The last thing Xi wants’
Despite all its aggressive posturing, few believe Beijing wants an active military conflict against the United States and its allies over Taiwan — just yet.
“The last thing Xi wants is an accidental war ignited,” Titus Chen, an associate professor of political science at the National Sun Yat-Sen University in Taiwan, said.
Multiple scholars noted that Beijing’s military capabilities still lag behind Washington’s, and told AFP that recent military drills, while clearly intended to be intimidating, fell short of targeting areas immediately adjacent to the Taiwanese coast.
“Xi’s Plan B would be to explain away, via (Chinese Communist Party) propaganda and thought control system, the sense of embarrassment or humiliation that Pelosi’s Taiwan visit brings to Beijing,” Chen said. — AFP
My 2 cents.
ReplyDeleteSuperficially in this pelosi saga:
US won with action, though stealthily.
China lost after torrents of strong rhetorics.
But…
In the final analysis, US has misfired again as in nuking the Russia economy with Rouble SWIFT sanction.
Pelosi insisted to perform her Taiwan trip, Bcoz she had no choice. She was trapped amongst personal, party & economy.
1)Personally, her husband's insider tradings exposé have damaged her hard-earned political reputation.
2)If the Democrat don't throw a political curve ball, especially in international stages, then there would be a landslip defeats in the coming November midterm elections for her party.
3)The interest rate increments had not decrease the upward trend of the inflation. Meanwhile the returned oversea funds have no met the desired expectations!
Something must be done in the M East & East Asia to quicken the repatriation of those foreign fund still parked there, back to US homeland. The Ukraine crisis has expeditd the European funds back to US, as expected. But the ME & FarEast funds r not moving!
A middle size conflict as in the Taiwan crisis would be a helping hands in forcing these funds to move US-ward.
Already, the sparks in the ME has been ignited AGAIN by the drone assassination of the al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan.
By only engaging in Taiwan rhetoric wars with US, Xi might have played a masterstroke in pushing the inflation knife deeper into the US economic heart.
孙子曰：夫用兵之法，全国为上，破国次之；全军为上，破军次之；全旅为上，破旅次之；全卒为上，破卒次之；全伍为上，破伍次之。是故百战百胜，非善之善也；不战而屈人之兵，善之善者也。
Most of the Chinese, would miss their expected unification, but they would abetted by the CPC's decision of not engaging in unification war now.
Pelosi might have win outwardly in going on to Taiwan despite the strongest protections. But the way she wormed her way into Taipei Sungshan Airport, despite been the 3rd position holder of the US presidency, downgraded the diplomatic esteem of the US in the eyes of the world.