Melaka polls – the 8 seats to watch
With polling centres opening in just hours, there are several hot seats that could make or break the three main coalitions in the fray.
AYER KEROH: The Melaka state election is less than 24 hours away and many observers believe it is still too close to call the results especially with uncertainties over voter turnout amid the pandemic.
While the biggest question will be which of the three coalitions – Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) or Perikatan Nasional (PN) – will win the 15 seats needed to take over the state government, many will also be looking at some hot, highly-anticipated contests.
FMT takes a look at eight key seats up for grabs as analysts Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi and former Universiti Teknologi Malaysia lecturer Azmi Hassan weigh in on the likely winners.
TANJUNG BIDARA
The 94% Malay-majority seat will see a three-way battle between BN, PH and PN. This is probably THE battle to watch as it involves two heavyweights – Melaka BN chief Ab Rauf Yusof and PN’s chief minister-designate Mas Ermieyati Samsudin. PH will be represented by Zainal Hassan of PKR. Tanjung Bidara is an Umno stronghold and in the last general election (GE14), BN won the seat with a majority of over 2,800 votes.
Analysts verdict:
Unanimously BN to win
LENDU
Caretaker chief minister Sulaiman Md Ali won the Lendu seat with a thin majority of just 627 votes in a three-way contest against Bersatu and PAS in GE14. This time around, Bersatu and PAS are united in PN and their candidate Abdullah Mahadi will look to wrest the seat from Sulaiman. He will, however, have to fend off another challenger in PH’s Mohamad Asri Ibrahim, who is likely to get the bulk of the over 20% non-Malay votes.
Analysts verdict:
Oh: 50-50 between BN and PH
Awang Azman: BN
Azmi: Too close to call
BUKIT KATIL
Melaka PH chief Adly Zahari is the favourite to defend this mixed urban seat. In GE14, Adly of Amanah romped to a comfortable victory with an over 3,000-vote majority. He will be looking to do the same against PN’s Muhammad Al Hafiz Yahya, BN’s Hasnoor Husin and independent candidate Abdul Hamid. The urban constituency has a demographic of 64% Malay, 31% Chinese and 4% Indians.
Analysts verdict:
Unanimously PH to win
TELOK MAS
Melaka PN chief Mohd Rafiq Naizamohideen will try to defend the seat won by Bersatu in GE14 by Noor Effandi Ahmad who has been sacked by the party. Noor Effandi was among four assemblymen who defected, resulting in the collapse of the Melaka state government. The Telok Mas seat is a 74% Malay-majority constituency, which is likely to work in Rafiq’s favour. Still, it is likely to be an uphill battle for Rafiq as he is up against two very popular candidates in PH’s Ashraf Mukhlis Minghat and BN’s Abd Razak Rahman, as well as independent Ariff Adly.
Analysts verdict:
Oh: PH
Awang Azman: Too close to call
Azmi: PN
ASAHAN
A packed six-cornered fight awaits former Umno chief minister Idris Haron, who will be contesting outside of Sungai Udang and under a different coalition for the first time ever. With a smaller Malay demographic of 64% compared to Sungai Udang’s 80%, Idris, now a PKR candidate, will be banking on the 23% Chinese and 11% Indian voter base to boost his chances of winning the seat. He faces Melaka Umno Youth chief Fairul Nizam Roslan, PN’s Dhanesh Basil and three independent candidates. The incumbent, the late Abdul Ghafar Atan won the seat for BN with a slim 275 majority in GE14.
Analysts verdict:
Oh: 50-50 between BN and PH
Awang Azman: PH
Azmi: BN
PANTAI KUNDOR
Former Umno man Nor Azman Hassan is seeking to defend the seat he won in GE14, but this time as a PH candidate. He will be challenged by PN’s Mohamad Ridzwan Mustafa of Bersatu and BN’s Tuminah Kadi, who was the Wanita Umno chief of the division Noor Azman led prior to his sacking. He won the 81% Malay-majority seat in GE14 with a 772-vote majority.
Analysts verdict:
Oh: 50-50 between BN and PH
Awang Azman: BN
Azmi: BN
KELEBANG
In 2018, PH’s Gue Teck defeated BN’s Lim Ban Hong with a rather slim majority of 789 votes. Gue Teck will be facing off against Lim again, who has since become an MCA vice-president and deputy international trade and industry minister. The two will be joined by PN’s Bakri Jamaluddin of PAS in a three-cornered fight for Kelebang, which comprises a 67% Malay, 31% Chinese and 2% Indian demographic.
Analysts verdict:
Oh: PH
Awang Azman: 50-50 between PH and BN
Azmi: PH
DUYONG
Gan Tian Soh, the son and brother of two Duyong incumbents from MCA, is running as an independent for the seat and hoping to score an upset in yet another six-cornered fight. PH’s incumbent Damian Yeo won the seat with a 2,895 majority in GE14 and will be fending off PN candidate and Melaka PAS chief Kamarudin Sedik, BN’s Mohd Noor Helmy, Putra’s Mohd Faizal Amzah, Gan and another independent man, Muhamad Hafiz Ishak. A semi-urban seat located near Melaka city, the constituency has a 60% Malay, 35% Chinese and 5% Indian demographic.
Analysts verdict:
Unanimously PH to win
AYER KEROH: The Melaka state election is less than 24 hours away and many observers believe it is still too close to call the results especially with uncertainties over voter turnout amid the pandemic.
While the biggest question will be which of the three coalitions – Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) or Perikatan Nasional (PN) – will win the 15 seats needed to take over the state government, many will also be looking at some hot, highly-anticipated contests.
FMT takes a look at eight key seats up for grabs as analysts Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi and former Universiti Teknologi Malaysia lecturer Azmi Hassan weigh in on the likely winners.
TANJUNG BIDARA
The 94% Malay-majority seat will see a three-way battle between BN, PH and PN. This is probably THE battle to watch as it involves two heavyweights – Melaka BN chief Ab Rauf Yusof and PN’s chief minister-designate Mas Ermieyati Samsudin. PH will be represented by Zainal Hassan of PKR. Tanjung Bidara is an Umno stronghold and in the last general election (GE14), BN won the seat with a majority of over 2,800 votes.
Analysts verdict:
Unanimously BN to win
LENDU
Caretaker chief minister Sulaiman Md Ali won the Lendu seat with a thin majority of just 627 votes in a three-way contest against Bersatu and PAS in GE14. This time around, Bersatu and PAS are united in PN and their candidate Abdullah Mahadi will look to wrest the seat from Sulaiman. He will, however, have to fend off another challenger in PH’s Mohamad Asri Ibrahim, who is likely to get the bulk of the over 20% non-Malay votes.
Analysts verdict:
Oh: 50-50 between BN and PH
Awang Azman: BN
Azmi: Too close to call
BUKIT KATIL
Melaka PH chief Adly Zahari is the favourite to defend this mixed urban seat. In GE14, Adly of Amanah romped to a comfortable victory with an over 3,000-vote majority. He will be looking to do the same against PN’s Muhammad Al Hafiz Yahya, BN’s Hasnoor Husin and independent candidate Abdul Hamid. The urban constituency has a demographic of 64% Malay, 31% Chinese and 4% Indians.
Analysts verdict:
Unanimously PH to win
TELOK MAS
Melaka PN chief Mohd Rafiq Naizamohideen will try to defend the seat won by Bersatu in GE14 by Noor Effandi Ahmad who has been sacked by the party. Noor Effandi was among four assemblymen who defected, resulting in the collapse of the Melaka state government. The Telok Mas seat is a 74% Malay-majority constituency, which is likely to work in Rafiq’s favour. Still, it is likely to be an uphill battle for Rafiq as he is up against two very popular candidates in PH’s Ashraf Mukhlis Minghat and BN’s Abd Razak Rahman, as well as independent Ariff Adly.
Analysts verdict:
Oh: PH
Awang Azman: Too close to call
Azmi: PN
ASAHAN
A packed six-cornered fight awaits former Umno chief minister Idris Haron, who will be contesting outside of Sungai Udang and under a different coalition for the first time ever. With a smaller Malay demographic of 64% compared to Sungai Udang’s 80%, Idris, now a PKR candidate, will be banking on the 23% Chinese and 11% Indian voter base to boost his chances of winning the seat. He faces Melaka Umno Youth chief Fairul Nizam Roslan, PN’s Dhanesh Basil and three independent candidates. The incumbent, the late Abdul Ghafar Atan won the seat for BN with a slim 275 majority in GE14.
Analysts verdict:
Oh: 50-50 between BN and PH
Awang Azman: PH
Azmi: BN
PANTAI KUNDOR
Former Umno man Nor Azman Hassan is seeking to defend the seat he won in GE14, but this time as a PH candidate. He will be challenged by PN’s Mohamad Ridzwan Mustafa of Bersatu and BN’s Tuminah Kadi, who was the Wanita Umno chief of the division Noor Azman led prior to his sacking. He won the 81% Malay-majority seat in GE14 with a 772-vote majority.
Analysts verdict:
Oh: 50-50 between BN and PH
Awang Azman: BN
Azmi: BN
KELEBANG
In 2018, PH’s Gue Teck defeated BN’s Lim Ban Hong with a rather slim majority of 789 votes. Gue Teck will be facing off against Lim again, who has since become an MCA vice-president and deputy international trade and industry minister. The two will be joined by PN’s Bakri Jamaluddin of PAS in a three-cornered fight for Kelebang, which comprises a 67% Malay, 31% Chinese and 2% Indian demographic.
Analysts verdict:
Oh: PH
Awang Azman: 50-50 between PH and BN
Azmi: PH
DUYONG
Gan Tian Soh, the son and brother of two Duyong incumbents from MCA, is running as an independent for the seat and hoping to score an upset in yet another six-cornered fight. PH’s incumbent Damian Yeo won the seat with a 2,895 majority in GE14 and will be fending off PN candidate and Melaka PAS chief Kamarudin Sedik, BN’s Mohd Noor Helmy, Putra’s Mohd Faizal Amzah, Gan and another independent man, Muhamad Hafiz Ishak. A semi-urban seat located near Melaka city, the constituency has a 60% Malay, 35% Chinese and 5% Indian demographic.
Analysts verdict:
Unanimously PH to win
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