As the Iran war flares, Donald Trump looks for an exit to ease mounting political pain
Donald Trump is facing mounting political pressures from a protracted and unpopular war in Iran. (Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein)
Yet again, the United States has got itself into a quagmire: a war that President Donald Trump does not know how to end and the Iranian regime does not want to end.
The Wall Street Journal reported this week that US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth was "quietly extending troop deployments" into 2027, taken as a sign the conflict could drag on well into next year.
The Journal also reported that at the same time, Trump had been in discussions with senior aides about whether to officially declare the war over, with officials reportedly noting that the president "favours the idea".
Mission accomplished? Absolutely not.
This is quite a bizarre notion: a president declaring a war over despite both sides still firing at each other, the Strait of Hormuz still largely crippled and Iran still in possession of enriched uranium.
The main aim of the war — to ensure that Iran could never have nuclear weapons — has clearly not been achieved. Iran still has supplies of highly enriched uranium in a hidden location.
Then, once the war was underway, Trump said a key aim was regime change. That also has not happened.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is still effectively in charge in Tehran with, if anything, a more hardline leader after Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei took over from his father Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the early days of the war.
Then, as it was clear the US and Israel were not going to achieve either of those two aims, the goalpost shifted again.
The new goal was reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial waterway used to transport about 20 per cent of the world's crude oil and gas.
That strait was, of course, open and functioning well before the US and Israel decided to go to war.
Now, only a trickle of tankers pass through as insurance companies around the world are reluctant to offer coverage.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains a sticking point in the war. (Reuters)
So now, having failed on those three aims, Trump is reportedly considering declaring the war over, and presumably claiming victory.
It all comes as the US has sought to widen its war against Iran, with new waves of strikes resuming last week and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier announcing a plan to inflict "economic asphyxiation" on the regime.
Without question, both the US and Iran are feeling pain from this war. But the political consequence for each nation is markedly distinct.
In Iran, the IRGC, having survived the shock and awe of American and Israeli military air power, is not about to yield to internal discontent over diminishing supplies of petrol, food and other goods.
But for Trump, the picture is very different. He is, to some extent, insulated from electoral consequences because he cannot run for another term despite his taunts to the contrary.
But his Republican Party faces a different reality.
Pressure points in a protracted war
Two significant pressure points now weigh on Trump. The first is growing concern among the Republican Party and the second is growing discontent from Washington's traditional allies among the Gulf states.
As to the Republicans, this week Trump will try to rally the Trump MAGA faithful at what he has framed as "a midterm convention" in Texas.
The Dallas rally comes as Republicans face the possibility of losing control of the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate in the midterm elections in November.
The fact that Democrats have any chance of taking control of the Senate is itself a testament to how unpopular the Trump administration is.
The Democrats remain divided as they try to assess whether voters around the country want highly progressive candidates, like New York mayor and self-declared democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, or more centrist candidates.
For the first year of the second Trump presidency, the president often demonstrated an instinctive ability to channel the frustrations and anger of his core constituency.
But that shrewd political instinct seems increasingly to be abandoning him.
The most obvious example of this came recently when he effectively declared a trade war against Canada.
Few countries have cultural ties with the US as deep as those shared with Canada. Over decades, that relationship has become integrated in everything from trade and security to sport and culture.
According to the US Census Bureau, for 25 states, their largest customer is Canada. That is half the United States.
These are heartland states for any president: North Dakota, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Maine, Idaho, Ohio, Vermont, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Wyoming, Minnesota, Illinois, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, New Jersey, Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut and Georgia.
US goods exported to Canada were worth $US333.6 billion ($463.4 billion) in 2025, and goods imported from Canada were worth $US381.0 billion, according to the US Census Bureau.
Thirteen US states share a border with Canada: Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.
For these states, the flow of trucks taking goods both ways across the border is part of daily life.
And yet Trump has decided, with crucial midterm elections looming, to wreak havoc with this trade.
Mounting political pain
On top of the Iran war and several other issues, for some Republicans who represent states along the border, the new trade war could be the final straw.
I recently spoke to a Republican congressman who is a representative from one of those states, and a strong Trump supporter.
When I first met him two months ago, he was defending Trump on the Iran war and had a positive outlook towards the midterm elections. He told me he was certain the Republicans would hold the House.
But when I saw him this week, his political outlook had changed. When asked about the Trump tariffs and the Canada trade war, he shook his head.
"I just don't figure why he's done it," he said.
"It's terrible for the farmers in my state."
He said farmers and small business operators in his state were already mystified and angry with all the other pressures, particularly high petrol prices pushed up by the Iran war.
But they could not understand why a Republican president would add to the list of pain, he said.
In terms of the Iran war, the reality is that the hard men of the IRGC in Tehran can watch American cable television in real time and see a president under growing pressure, grappling with the political poison of a protracted war.
That is the central reason Iran is likely to do everything within its power to prolong this war as long as possible, into next year if need be.
The reality is that, given current dynamics, Donald Trump cannot stop the war that he and Israel started.
Clearly, with Washington "quietly" extending troop deployments and Iran's leadership seemingly prepared to prolong Trump's political pain for as long as possible, this war looks set to continue into next year.
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