PN likely to demand equal share of seats in Melaka polls, says analyst
3 hours ago
'Ainin Wan Salleh
Syaza Shukri says Perikatan Nasional will use its hold on three of the six parliamentary constituencies in the state as its bargaining chip
PN largely made way for BN to contest more seats in Negeri Sembilan, but an analyst expects the PAS-led coalition to demand an equal share at the Melaka polls.
PETALING JAYA: Perikatan Nasional (BN) is likely to demand at least half of the 28 state seats up for grabs when Melaka goes to the polls next, according to an analyst.
Its demand will largely be based on its victory in three of the state’s parliamentary constituencies in the 2022 general election (GE15), Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia told FMT.
BN failed to win any parliamentary seat in Melaka in GE15 despite chalking up a convincing victory in the state election the previous year.
Syaza said that while BN fielded candidates in only 25 of the 36 seats in the Negeri Sembilan election on Aug 1, leaving the remaining 11 to PN to avoid a direct clash, it is more likely to be “closer to a 14-14” formula in Melaka.
While PN banks on its hold on the three parliamentary seats, BN is not without its bargaining chip. The coalition won convincingly in the state election the previous year, garnering 20 of the 28 seats available.
“PN has shown that it has been gaining strength (since the last Melaka election), so it will not want to be treated as a junior partner in this pact,” Syaza told FMT.
PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang said recently that the BN-PN cooperation in the Melaka polls could look different from that in Negeri Sembilan. Nonetheless, he did qualify that comment with the caveat that it would depend on local developments.
In response, Melaka BN chairman Ab Rauf Yusoh said the coalition was willing to explore working with any party under a BN-Plus formula. But he also cautioned that talks would not necessarily result in an agreement, as they would depend on each party’s strengths.
Bersatu won Masjid Tanah in GE15 while PAS won Tangga Batu and Jasin. There are 14 state seats within these three parliamentary constituencies.
Bersatu has since fallen out with PAS and is not expected to contest under the PN banner despite still being a component of the coalition.
PAS in April announced that it intended to contest 16 seats in Melaka, including Tanjung Bidara, now held by Rauf.
No upper hand for PN
Universiti Malaya’s Tawfik Yaakub shares a slightly different view. He pointed out that while the three parliamentary seats may give PN bargaining power, it will not necessarily give it the upper hand.
“Winning a parliamentary seat does not automatically translate into state-seat entitlement,” he told FMT. “PN cannot demand half the state seats simply because it holds half of Melaka’s parliamentary seats.”
However, Tawfik noted, BN also cannot dismiss PN as a minor player at the state level given that PN had already defeated BN in the contest for three parliamentary seats.
Nonetheless, he said, various issues such as voter turnout, what they look for in a candidate, and the factors they consider when casting their votes could produce contrasting results at the state and federal levels.
For now, he believes BN’s hold on the Melaka administration, extensive network of incumbents and recent wins in Johor and Negeri Sembilan would strengthen its bargaining position.
Winnability over arithmetic
Tawfik said the incumbency rule could be a starting point but should not be applied rigidly, as it would fail to reflect prevailing political realities.
He said a fair seat-sharing arrangement should consider incumbency, recent election results, polling district outcomes and local realities, including party machinery, candidate suitability, grassroots acceptance, and vote-transferability between BN and PN supporters.
“Under this hybrid formula, BN could retain most of its strongholds while PN receives several genuinely winnable seats,” he said, arguing that winnability, not numerical parity, should ultimately determine seat allocation.
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said it would be an uphill battle for BN and PN to hammer out a deal in Melaka given that negotiating solely on PN’s parliamentary gains and BN’s strength at the state level “cannot hold water”.
He expects Umno and its BN partners to insist on incumbency, contesting 20 seats and leaving the remaining eight for PN to divide among its component parties.
If talks fail
In the event that BN and PN fail to come to an agreement, BN could try to strike a deal with Pakatan Harapan (PH).
Syaza pointed out that PH still has a strong presence in Melaka. Besides its hold on five state seats, it also has the remaining three parliamentary seats it won in GE15.
In that sense, Azmi believes, PH could gain from a partnership with BN.
Its demand will largely be based on its victory in three of the state’s parliamentary constituencies in the 2022 general election (GE15), Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia told FMT.
BN failed to win any parliamentary seat in Melaka in GE15 despite chalking up a convincing victory in the state election the previous year.
Syaza said that while BN fielded candidates in only 25 of the 36 seats in the Negeri Sembilan election on Aug 1, leaving the remaining 11 to PN to avoid a direct clash, it is more likely to be “closer to a 14-14” formula in Melaka.
While PN banks on its hold on the three parliamentary seats, BN is not without its bargaining chip. The coalition won convincingly in the state election the previous year, garnering 20 of the 28 seats available.
“PN has shown that it has been gaining strength (since the last Melaka election), so it will not want to be treated as a junior partner in this pact,” Syaza told FMT.
PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang said recently that the BN-PN cooperation in the Melaka polls could look different from that in Negeri Sembilan. Nonetheless, he did qualify that comment with the caveat that it would depend on local developments.
In response, Melaka BN chairman Ab Rauf Yusoh said the coalition was willing to explore working with any party under a BN-Plus formula. But he also cautioned that talks would not necessarily result in an agreement, as they would depend on each party’s strengths.
Bersatu won Masjid Tanah in GE15 while PAS won Tangga Batu and Jasin. There are 14 state seats within these three parliamentary constituencies.
Bersatu has since fallen out with PAS and is not expected to contest under the PN banner despite still being a component of the coalition.
PAS in April announced that it intended to contest 16 seats in Melaka, including Tanjung Bidara, now held by Rauf.
No upper hand for PN
Universiti Malaya’s Tawfik Yaakub shares a slightly different view. He pointed out that while the three parliamentary seats may give PN bargaining power, it will not necessarily give it the upper hand.
“Winning a parliamentary seat does not automatically translate into state-seat entitlement,” he told FMT. “PN cannot demand half the state seats simply because it holds half of Melaka’s parliamentary seats.”
However, Tawfik noted, BN also cannot dismiss PN as a minor player at the state level given that PN had already defeated BN in the contest for three parliamentary seats.
Nonetheless, he said, various issues such as voter turnout, what they look for in a candidate, and the factors they consider when casting their votes could produce contrasting results at the state and federal levels.
For now, he believes BN’s hold on the Melaka administration, extensive network of incumbents and recent wins in Johor and Negeri Sembilan would strengthen its bargaining position.
Winnability over arithmetic
Tawfik said the incumbency rule could be a starting point but should not be applied rigidly, as it would fail to reflect prevailing political realities.
He said a fair seat-sharing arrangement should consider incumbency, recent election results, polling district outcomes and local realities, including party machinery, candidate suitability, grassroots acceptance, and vote-transferability between BN and PN supporters.
“Under this hybrid formula, BN could retain most of its strongholds while PN receives several genuinely winnable seats,” he said, arguing that winnability, not numerical parity, should ultimately determine seat allocation.
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said it would be an uphill battle for BN and PN to hammer out a deal in Melaka given that negotiating solely on PN’s parliamentary gains and BN’s strength at the state level “cannot hold water”.
He expects Umno and its BN partners to insist on incumbency, contesting 20 seats and leaving the remaining eight for PN to divide among its component parties.
If talks fail
In the event that BN and PN fail to come to an agreement, BN could try to strike a deal with Pakatan Harapan (PH).
Syaza pointed out that PH still has a strong presence in Melaka. Besides its hold on five state seats, it also has the remaining three parliamentary seats it won in GE15.
In that sense, Azmi believes, PH could gain from a partnership with BN.
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