PH losses among Johor Chinese voters mainly due to low turnout, says Ong
Former Bangi MP says only a small number of Chinese voters switched support to BN in the Johor election
Former Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming said election outcomes are determined not only by which party voters prefer, but also by whether those voters turn out.
PETALING JAYA: The drop in Chinese votes for Pakatan Harapan (PH) at the Johor polls earlier this month was driven mainly by lower turnout rather than a swing to Barisan Nasional (BN), DAP’s Ong Kian Ming says.
In a statement, the former Bangi MP said an estimated 75.5% of Malay voters cast their ballots in the state election on July 11, compared to 61% of Chinese voters.
According to Ong, BN received an estimated 84.9% of Malay ballots while PH received an estimated 85.6% of Chinese ballots.
However, because Chinese turnout was substantially lower, PH received the support of only 52.2% of the entire eligible Chinese electorate, compared with the 64.1% of the eligible Malay electorate which supported BN, he said.
Ong said election outcomes are determined not only by which party voters prefer, but also by whether those voters turn out.
“PH may retain the loyalty of a large majority of non-Malay voters who cast ballots, but still suffer an electoral setback if a substantial share of its voter base stays home,” added Ong, who predicted a decisive win by BN in the run-up to the Johor polls.
Compared to the last general election, Chinese turnout fell by an estimated 8 percentage points, from 69.0% to 61.0%, while PH’s support among Chinese voters who turned out also declined, but more moderately, from 91.5% to 85.6%, he said.
“Estimates suggest that approximately two-thirds of PH’s decline among the eligible Chinese electorate came from lower turnout, rather than Chinese voters switching to BN.
“Any crossover to BN was comparatively small.”
Ong said the Malay voter pattern was very different. He said Malay turnout remained broadly stable compared with the 15th general election, “but the choice of party changed dramatically”.
BN’s estimated support among the eligible Malay electorate increased from 36.5% to 64.1%, while Perikatan Nasional’s support fell from 34.5% to 6.8%, he said.
Ong said the increase for BN and decline for PN were almost exactly one-for-one.
“This indicates that BN’s landslide was driven primarily by a large net reversal from PN to BN among Malay voters, rather than by higher Malay turnout alone.”
BN won 48 of the 56 seats it contested on July 11, while PH won only eight seats, down by four from the 12 it won in 2022. DAP won six seats, although it lost four seats secured in the last state election to MCA and MIC, including its strongholds of Johor Jaya and Perling.
In a statement, the former Bangi MP said an estimated 75.5% of Malay voters cast their ballots in the state election on July 11, compared to 61% of Chinese voters.
According to Ong, BN received an estimated 84.9% of Malay ballots while PH received an estimated 85.6% of Chinese ballots.
However, because Chinese turnout was substantially lower, PH received the support of only 52.2% of the entire eligible Chinese electorate, compared with the 64.1% of the eligible Malay electorate which supported BN, he said.
Ong said election outcomes are determined not only by which party voters prefer, but also by whether those voters turn out.
“PH may retain the loyalty of a large majority of non-Malay voters who cast ballots, but still suffer an electoral setback if a substantial share of its voter base stays home,” added Ong, who predicted a decisive win by BN in the run-up to the Johor polls.
Compared to the last general election, Chinese turnout fell by an estimated 8 percentage points, from 69.0% to 61.0%, while PH’s support among Chinese voters who turned out also declined, but more moderately, from 91.5% to 85.6%, he said.
“Estimates suggest that approximately two-thirds of PH’s decline among the eligible Chinese electorate came from lower turnout, rather than Chinese voters switching to BN.
“Any crossover to BN was comparatively small.”
Ong said the Malay voter pattern was very different. He said Malay turnout remained broadly stable compared with the 15th general election, “but the choice of party changed dramatically”.
BN’s estimated support among the eligible Malay electorate increased from 36.5% to 64.1%, while Perikatan Nasional’s support fell from 34.5% to 6.8%, he said.
Ong said the increase for BN and decline for PN were almost exactly one-for-one.
“This indicates that BN’s landslide was driven primarily by a large net reversal from PN to BN among Malay voters, rather than by higher Malay turnout alone.”
BN won 48 of the 56 seats it contested on July 11, while PH won only eight seats, down by four from the 12 it won in 2022. DAP won six seats, although it lost four seats secured in the last state election to MCA and MIC, including its strongholds of Johor Jaya and Perling.
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