Opinion: What does the result of the Ayer Kuning by-election tells us

Opinion: What does the result of the Ayer Kuning by-election tells us


29 Apr 2025 • 1:00 PM MYT


TheRealNehruism
Writer. Seeker. Teacher



Image credit: Malay Mail


Some people are saying that the voting result disfavours the unity movement , although BN won, because the PH+BN vote share has dropped by 7% in this by-election.


In the 2022 state election, they obtained a combined total of 68.03 % of vote share, but in the by-election today, the fact that they only managed to get 11,065 votes over an estimated total 18,189 votes, means that they only managed to secure 60.9% of the vote.


Parti Sosialis Malaysia has brushed off the loss suffered by its candidate, KS Bawani at the Ayer Kuning by-election today, by pointing to the increase in votes she obtained.


“We weren’t beaten, but we were supported by more voters compared to the 2022 general election,” the party said in a social media post, to indicate that the fact its candidate Bawani secured 1,106 votes tonight, which is almost double the 586 votes it obtained in 2022, meant that the fact that it had lost its deposit should not be construed as a loss, but a rare species of victory.


BN however, is saying that the fact that it retained the seat tonight with a 5006-vote majority, more than double that it obtained in 2022 by Ishsam Shahruddin, makes Ayer Kuning a decisive victory for its side, although it failed to achieve the 18,000 votes that it had targeted.


In the way I see it, I think that the Ayer Kuning by-election results, like the Nenggiri by-election before it, likely favours the unity government and the reign of Anwar.


The conspicuous absence of energy in Ayer Kuning, as see by the fact that only 58% of the 31,897 registered voters came out to cast their ballots, when 75% of them did in the last general election, indicates that by and large, voters of both sides of the divide have simply come to accept the status quo, even if they are not fully satisfied with it.


It takes more energy to change the government than to maintain it. The challenger can only expect to be victorious against the incumbent if the voters are in a highly agitated and frustrated state. If the voters are in a resigned and lethargic state, as the Ayer Kuning by-election indicates, the odds favour the unity government defending Putrajaya than the opposition conquering it.


The fact that PN couldn’t perform much better than in did in 2022 in Ayer Kuning, despite the fact that Ayer Kuning’s voters were 55 percent Malay-Muslims and is located in a swing state like Perak, indicates that even the core demographic that strongly identifies with PN, either do not believe that PN has what it takes to win or that their interest is best secured by strongly aligning with PN.


If anything, the Ayer Kuning results shows that PN is in a dire need for a better line-up and strategy at the national level. Whatever it has is not arousing confidence in its core demographic, and thus if it doesn’t make a change, not only will it fail to make a gain, it will likely lose what it already has.


Going by the by-election results in Ayer Kuning today, I will predict that if the general elections were called today, PH will perform slightly better than it did in the 2022 general election, PN’s performance will see a slight decline and the third force will make little to no impression in the mind of the voters.