Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Chinese and Indians Must Vote Against The PH In Kuala Kubu Baharu.
I have adapted the following from Murray Hunter. My comments at the end.
The realities and challenges ahead for the government
UMNO is a spoiler
Murray Hunter
Mar 26
Sixteen months into government, the administration faces many challenges. Most of these problems are of its own making. UMNO has been a double edge sword, where much of the government’s woes have been caused through UMNO internal infighting.
The ‘unity government’ needs to win the Malay heartlands if it is to be guaranteed of returning to government after the next general election. However, nothing has assisted in enlisting the Malay electorate. This has also alienated Pakatan Harapan’s traditional support base, who may become very apathetic towards voting in the next general election.
The decline of multiculturalism
UMNO has exploited the KK Super Mart “Allah” socks issue to the point of inflaming hate and retribution by ultra-Malay groups. Last week, it looked like race relations fell to a dangerous point. Too much more of bickering over such issues could ignite a flashpoint, if incidents got out of control.
From the perspective of some after the event, the whole episode became a show of how a Chinese business could be bullied. This comes with a further loss of respect in the government by the non-Malay community.
The Allah sock protests has cemented a line of division. In addition, the unfairness was highlighted by the contrary approach taken towards opposition politicians. Kedah Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor was very quickly charged over alleged seditious comments he made during the state election campaign last August.
Likewise, some of the glimpses the public saw of Palestinian Solidarity Week in Malaysian schools reinforces the perception that Malays are being nurtured to “hate”.
Many Malay parents are rejecting the government school system, preferring to send their children to Chinese schools. According to the Ministry of Education enrolments of Malay children in Chinese schools has risen from 9.5 percent in 2010 to 15.33 percent in 2020.
The bottom-line is that multi-culturalism continues to slide.
The economy and cost of living
The economy and cost of living are pressing issues. The government is continuing the high rate of spending. There is no Covid-19 emergency anymore. National public debt is reaching RM 1.6 trillion, which is 64 percent of GDP. Without any signs of constraint, either by reducing spending or drastically increasing revenue, there is risk the international ratings agencies may downgrade Malaysia current rating.
With a general slide in exports over the last year, the economic outlook for 2024 may have to be downgraded. Productive direct foreign investment is required to generate more exports and provide stimulation to domestic economic activity.
There is a lack of confidence in the Ringgit. The low Ringgit has become a ‘bellwether’ of public confidence.
Coupled to the poor performance of the Ringgit is the continued pressure on the cost of living from the rising costs of imported items. This is especially reflected in rising food prices. The claims that there is no longer any hardcore poverty in Kuala Lumpur, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan are counterproductive to the quest of seeking greater popularity. Many families are suffering from an erosion of their incomes through inflation and falling salaries. People can see that such comments don’t reflect what they are experiencing in the community.
The two-tier legal system
The ‘unity government’ was very quick to lay corruption and money laundering charges against Bersatu leader and former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, but has failed to act upon corruption going on within its own government. Many criticize the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) for being a revolving door. Many people are interviewed, but they walk out without any charges being laid.
The discharge not amounting to an acquittal (DNAA) over charges of corruption and money laundering, and the commutation of the former prime minister's prison sentence has given the public the perception that the legal system has become much more biased.
Rightly or wrongly, there is much gossip that Zahid and Najib’s treatment was the price for UMNO support to form the ‘unity government’.
Reforms (or lack of them)
The expectation of reforms has been the cornerstone of non-Malay support for the government. At first PH supporters were giving excuses, such as this is not a reform government and give PH some time. However, with the Sedition Act being strengthened to look more like Thailand’s draconian Lese-Majeste laws, and proposed citizenship changes to the constitution are disappointing NGOs. Many traditional supporters are becoming even more dissatisfied with the government.
The question is whether Pakatan Harapan’s non-Malay support base will even bother to turn out and vote next general election. There is a risk many will become apathetic and stay home.
Censorship
Malaysia has become perhaps the most heavily censored country in the region at present. The MCMC is blocking critics of the government without any recourse. The government last year announced that any discussion of the 3Rs (Race, Religion, and Royalty) are forbidden. Malaysian news portals are practising self-censorship. This is stifling any criticism of the government.
The ball is in play now
UMNO is on the offensive now, threatening and destabilizing the government. Turning an administration with a super-majority in parliament into a fragile government. Most of the disrepute around the government has been centred around issues connected to UMNO. Are these antics all coincidental, or is there a bigger scheme behind them?
Madani has been promoted heavily over the last 16 months, and this is becoming the weakness. The reforms that Pakatan Harapan (and even UMNO) promised before the election, have all been abandoned.
Instead of being the great reformer some people had taken tear gas for, Madani is perceived by some as being a true Machiavellian politician, acting primarily in the interests of maintaining power.
The coming by-election for the Kuala Kubu Baharu state seat in Selangor should be a litmus test of Pakatan popularity. The key is the paradox non-Malays now face. Will they be able to abandon their past support for Pakatan, in favour of putting Hamzah Zainudin in the PM’s chair?
My Comments : The Kuala Kubu Baharu State seat had just over 40,000 voters in 2023. 46% Malays (18,000 votes), 36% Chinese (14,400 votes) and 18% Indians (7,200).
KK
In the 2023 State elections the DAP delivered a solid 54% of the vote for PH. PH won by a majority of 4,100 votes. I dont think that is possible anymore. The PH needs to swing only about 2100 votes to win the seat.
MUDA (which won 1,100 votes) is now minus Syed Saddiq. But the young guys in MUDA should be in the PN camp. Learn to negotiate boys. That MUDA vote will likely swing.
The PN candidate (Teoh Kien Hong of Gerakan) turned in a good performance.
If a portion of the Chinese votes, more of the Malay vote, a portion of the 18% Indian vote, the 1,186 MUDA votes swing then PN will take the Kuala Kubu state seat.
The Chinese voters are important. The Indian voters are important too.
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