FMT:
Penang no longer a safe deposit for PH
The ruling coalition is expected to win with a thinner majority, as rival Perikatan Nasional continues to lure Malay voters away.
Pakatan Harapan is expected to lead the unity coalition to victory in Penang, but a reduced majority is likely. (Facebook pic)
GEORGE TOWN: For more than a decade, Penang has been seen as a fixed deposit for Pakatan Harapan, and a fourth term in power regarded as all but a done deal.
However, that notion was rattled last year at the parliamentary elections, when the new cohort of 18 to 21-year-old voters and Malays on the mainland showed their preference for the opposition Perikatan Nasional coalition, allowing it to snap up three seats.
One of those seats happened to be the ‘keramat’ Permatang Pauh, which had been held by the Anwar Ibrahim family for nearly three decades. In stepped a PAS ustaz and TikTok influencer.
FMT takes a look at what Malaysians can expect ahead of the state elections, and how major coalitions and small parties alike are eager to grab a piece of the action in the island state.
At the dissolution of the Penang state legislative assembly last month, DAP held 19 seats, PKR 12, and Amanah two. Pakatan Harapan’s new unity government partner, Barisan Nasional, had two seats.
PAS was the sole representative of Perikatan Nasional with one seat – which it won by chance, after it was revealed that a PH candidate was bankrupt and was thus disqualified from contesting.
State of the parties
At the elections next month, the PH-BN coalition will vie to win at least 30 of the 40 seats in the assembly, well above the 27 seats required for a two-thirds majority.
The target appears to be somewhat stifled progress compared to the 37 seats won in 2018.
PH will contest 34 seats: DAP in 19, largely Chinese majority seats; PKR in mixed seats (13) and Amanah in two Malay seats, while six other Malay-majority seats will be fought by BN lynchpin Umno.
PN will contest all 40 seats, with 19 going to Gerakan, 11 to Bersatu and 10 to PAS.
For the first time, Bersatu will field its associate non-Malay wing members as candidates in four traditional DAP seats.
PAS will also field three of its non-Muslim candidates in DAP strongholds.
All eyes are on Gerakan chief Dominic Lau, who has surprisingly chosen to stand in Bayan Lepas, a Malay majority seat.
Khaliq Mehtab Mohd Ishaq, who was Penang PN’s election director until recently, said PN was targeting 20 seats, 15 of which are Malay majority and the other five more mixed.
However, 20 seats would be one short of a simple majority.
Muda has also waded in, fielding candidates in Pantai Jerejak, Batu Uban and Perai, after doing fairly well in its pursuit of the Kepala Batas parliamentary seat last year.
Malay voters hold the key
A political observer, who declined to be named, said it appears that Malay voters will hold the key to the elections, as the community has switched from secularism to religion over the years, due to PAS’s popularity in Kedah and years of the party’s ‘turun padang’, when it was part of the Pakatan Rakyat alliance, the predecessor of PH from 2008 to 2015.
“Despite Umno teaming up with PH, I am doubtful PH will do well, as the Malays don’t really trust the coalition. We can expect many mixed seats to go to PN,” the observer said, adding that DAP and PKR should retain PH’s hold on the Penang government, but with a much thinner majority than previously.
However, political analyst Ooi Kee Beng of the state-funded Penang Institute believed that Umno would curb PN’s rise, and Umno supporters will continue to back BN due to their loyalty to the party.
“Rising political maturity among Malay voters also means that their vote cannot be monolithic and will necessarily vary, or ‘split’ in old jargon.
“The dust has settled now, and the need to punish Umno is done. An Umno seat will exert influence on state policies; a PN seat will not. Much will depend on the campaign itself,” he said.
Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk of Universiti Sains Malaysia said the Malay sentiment appears hard to read in Penang. He predicts that Malays will vote in line with the patterns of the 2022 parliamentary elections.
Doubts among Umno voters
He said the question remains if Umno voters would vote for PH, as the concept of coalition politics has yet to sink into the mindsets of Umno supporters and grassroots.
“They will either refrain from voting or will cast their votes for PN,” he said.
According to Election Commission data gleaned from GE15, PH took more than 60% of the votes in 25 out of 40 state seats.
While the alliance with BN this time breaks new grounds and can help in some Malay heartland seats, winning the mainland seats will prove tough.
The new unity coalition would largely remain the same as present, with Chow Kon Yeow as chief minister, but key deputy chief minister posts reserved for PKR and Umno.
Penang and five other states go to the polls on Aug 12. There are 67,633 voters between the ages of 18 and 20 in the state, out of an electorate of 1.2 million.
GEORGE TOWN: For more than a decade, Penang has been seen as a fixed deposit for Pakatan Harapan, and a fourth term in power regarded as all but a done deal.
However, that notion was rattled last year at the parliamentary elections, when the new cohort of 18 to 21-year-old voters and Malays on the mainland showed their preference for the opposition Perikatan Nasional coalition, allowing it to snap up three seats.
One of those seats happened to be the ‘keramat’ Permatang Pauh, which had been held by the Anwar Ibrahim family for nearly three decades. In stepped a PAS ustaz and TikTok influencer.
FMT takes a look at what Malaysians can expect ahead of the state elections, and how major coalitions and small parties alike are eager to grab a piece of the action in the island state.
At the dissolution of the Penang state legislative assembly last month, DAP held 19 seats, PKR 12, and Amanah two. Pakatan Harapan’s new unity government partner, Barisan Nasional, had two seats.
PAS was the sole representative of Perikatan Nasional with one seat – which it won by chance, after it was revealed that a PH candidate was bankrupt and was thus disqualified from contesting.
State of the parties
At the elections next month, the PH-BN coalition will vie to win at least 30 of the 40 seats in the assembly, well above the 27 seats required for a two-thirds majority.
The target appears to be somewhat stifled progress compared to the 37 seats won in 2018.
PH will contest 34 seats: DAP in 19, largely Chinese majority seats; PKR in mixed seats (13) and Amanah in two Malay seats, while six other Malay-majority seats will be fought by BN lynchpin Umno.
PN will contest all 40 seats, with 19 going to Gerakan, 11 to Bersatu and 10 to PAS.
For the first time, Bersatu will field its associate non-Malay wing members as candidates in four traditional DAP seats.
PAS will also field three of its non-Muslim candidates in DAP strongholds.
All eyes are on Gerakan chief Dominic Lau, who has surprisingly chosen to stand in Bayan Lepas, a Malay majority seat.
Khaliq Mehtab Mohd Ishaq, who was Penang PN’s election director until recently, said PN was targeting 20 seats, 15 of which are Malay majority and the other five more mixed.
However, 20 seats would be one short of a simple majority.
Muda has also waded in, fielding candidates in Pantai Jerejak, Batu Uban and Perai, after doing fairly well in its pursuit of the Kepala Batas parliamentary seat last year.
Malay voters hold the key
A political observer, who declined to be named, said it appears that Malay voters will hold the key to the elections, as the community has switched from secularism to religion over the years, due to PAS’s popularity in Kedah and years of the party’s ‘turun padang’, when it was part of the Pakatan Rakyat alliance, the predecessor of PH from 2008 to 2015.
“Despite Umno teaming up with PH, I am doubtful PH will do well, as the Malays don’t really trust the coalition. We can expect many mixed seats to go to PN,” the observer said, adding that DAP and PKR should retain PH’s hold on the Penang government, but with a much thinner majority than previously.
However, political analyst Ooi Kee Beng of the state-funded Penang Institute believed that Umno would curb PN’s rise, and Umno supporters will continue to back BN due to their loyalty to the party.
“Rising political maturity among Malay voters also means that their vote cannot be monolithic and will necessarily vary, or ‘split’ in old jargon.
“The dust has settled now, and the need to punish Umno is done. An Umno seat will exert influence on state policies; a PN seat will not. Much will depend on the campaign itself,” he said.
Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk of Universiti Sains Malaysia said the Malay sentiment appears hard to read in Penang. He predicts that Malays will vote in line with the patterns of the 2022 parliamentary elections.
Doubts among Umno voters
He said the question remains if Umno voters would vote for PH, as the concept of coalition politics has yet to sink into the mindsets of Umno supporters and grassroots.
“They will either refrain from voting or will cast their votes for PN,” he said.
According to Election Commission data gleaned from GE15, PH took more than 60% of the votes in 25 out of 40 state seats.
While the alliance with BN this time breaks new grounds and can help in some Malay heartland seats, winning the mainland seats will prove tough.
The new unity coalition would largely remain the same as present, with Chow Kon Yeow as chief minister, but key deputy chief minister posts reserved for PKR and Umno.
Penang and five other states go to the polls on Aug 12. There are 67,633 voters between the ages of 18 and 20 in the state, out of an electorate of 1.2 million.
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kt comments:
Once also a 'safe deposit' for Gerakan, Penangites have a nasty habit of 'punishing' arrogant take-for-granted so-called 'fave' parties like Gerkan. We have seen in recent times how Penangites ignored their once-fave Gerakan. Will Penangites once again invoke the Island-curse and begin the abandonment of the DAP? Mind, not that it will happen overnight but happen it will.
Watch it Rocket Party!
Australia's one of your territory, right?
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/jamiemcintyre21/status/1685175103909396480?t=gCav3CwPij1FhW5NG4afCw&s=19
More at the comment section.
Any particular reason Murdoch grew a pair now but not back then? Why Australia?