Russian Wagner Mercenery Rebellion – Why It Looks More Like A Staged Drama Than A Genuine Revolt

Russian Wagner Mercenery Rebellion – Why It Looks More Like A Staged Drama Than A Genuine Revolt



Stalin used to allow – even encourage – mini rebellions to occur so that the revolutionary who led the Soviet Union from 1924 until his death in 1953 could cling to power by flushing out traitors. He would suddenly disappear from the office without announcement for a few weeks, presenting the opportunity to enemies to make their move, before ruthlessly exterminating them.



So, the burning question is did Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner Group military company, really want to march all the way to Moscow in the infamous 24-hour rebellion? Or was it just a staged attempted mutiny orchestrated by Russian president Vladimir Putin to flush out enemies from within? The West would like the world to believe it was a genuine rebellion.



By trumpeting the narrative that the chaos has “exploded” Putin’s grip on power, the U.S. and its allies hope to win the psychology war that the Russian dictator isn’t invincible. More importantly, the White House hopes it could continue pumping billions of taxpayers’ money into Ukraine War based on the excuse that the weakened Putin can be overthrown.



However, according to the Washington Post, U.S. intelligence knew about Prigozhin’s plans to rebel since mid-June. If Washington knew, you can bet your last penny that the Kremlin did too. Even if Moscow was so useless that they failed to spot miles of hostile military convoy on its way to attack the capital, President Biden will vigorously try to get hold of Putin to tell him.



That’s because if Civil War starts in Russia, rogue operators or ultra-nationalists could take over Russia’s 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons and threaten the Western powers. Yet, Moscow did absolutely nothing to stop him early. If the Russian military intelligence had been so clueless and incompetent in the first place, the country would have been split and conquered ages ago.



The Western media clumsily rushed to broadcast the end of Putin regime the moment the Wagner boss mobilized his 25,000 troops to Moscow. Some even applauded Prigozhin’s bravery in toppling Putin. When the mutiny didn’t happen, the media quickly crucified Prigozhin and laughed at his miscalculation. In the end, he called off his march on Moscow to save “Russian blood”.



But there are still many loopholes in the rebellion story that it’s laughable the head of the feared Wagner Group could be so dumb in executing his plan. As a start, Prigozhin claimed that the Russian army, presumably under instruction from the Russian Defence Ministry, had attacked his forces. However, photographs of the attack’s location did not show such onslaught.



Secondly, Prigozhin whined, moaned and bitched about how the incompetent and corrupt Russian Generals, especially Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, failed to supply food and ammunition to his mercenary troops. Armed with tanks, missiles and other heavy equipments, some 25,000 mercenaries appeared unstoppable as they drove deep into Russian territory.



Incredibly, crowds of people – families and children – waved both Wagner and Russian flags as the convoy captured the port city of Rostov-an-Don. The presence of heavily armed soldiers was quickly seized by locals to take pictures and selfies instead. How could the people support the rebels who were about to destroy the nation? Everyone was celebrating, and nobody cared about the mutiny.



Equally strange was the lack of evidence of mass casualties that would normally happen in a coup. In fact, the rebels, whom Putin called “traitors”, did not meet any resistance along the 700-km as they progressed northward. At the very least, the Russian Air Force should have sent some fighter jets to bomb the highway packed with the rebels or sitting ducks. Why it didn’t happen?




Third, the Wagner military convoy suddenly stopped within 200-km (124 miles) of Moscow after a deal was conveniently struck with the help of Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko. A close buddy of Putin, Lukashenko told Prigozhin that not only he could live in exile peacefully in Belarus, but all charges against him would be dropped if he ended his mutiny.



Fourth, camps to accommodate at least 8,000 Wagner fighters were already being built in the Mogilev region in Belarus, as if Lukashenko knew in advance of the revolt. Everyone knows the Belarusian Army is extremely weak. To make the rebellion even more dramatic, Prigozhin left a huge of his own army to join Russia as he confidently flew into Belarus in a private jet.



And Prigozhin, the convict-turned-oligarch known as “Putin’s Chef”, somehow believes Putin will let bygones be bygones after his betrayal. The bigger question is this – if the Russian president was so weak that he had to forgive and accommodate the traitor, why didn’t Prigozhin proceed with his crusade to Moscow anyway, seize power, and crown himself as the new Russian president?



Sure, we’re supposed to believe that Putin, after bulldozing some tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in order to intimidate and threaten NATO, is now reduced to a powerless dictator who depends on Lukashenko. Interestingly, from the beginning, Prigozhin had never declared war on Putin, but only on the incompetent Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and his gang.



That would bring us to the next question – what’s Putin’s game plan of the entire drama? Like Joseph Stalin, president Putin might want to flush out traitors among his circle. If the Wagner warlord had hoped the regular Russian army would rise alongside him, the plan failed. Senior Russian generals who might have agreed to support him, if there’s any, had obviously chicken out.



After helping to capture the city of Bakhmut, Prigozhin’s half-baked mutiny also provides a good cover story for Wagner mercenaries to be absorbed legitimately into the Russian regular army. Putin now has a stronger grip on defence minister Sergei Shoigu and army chief of staff Valery Gerasimov, both of whom were said to be hated by other generals.



There’s one compelling reason why the rebellion has been staged by Putin – to deploy Prigozhin and Wagner troops in Belarus to threaten Eastern Europe. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who initially laughed at the chaos in Russia, has now raised alarm over “instability” in the region over threat of attacks from the Wagner mercenaries.



Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said – “If Wagner deploys its serial killers in Belarus, all neighbouring countries face even bigger danger of instability”. Was it a coincidence that after deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, Prigozhin was also parachuted into the country to threaten NATO? Wagner fighters now have the option of signing a contract with the Russian defence ministry, or “can go to Belarus”.



Crucially, the Wagner mercenaries, now legitimately positioned in Belarus, can stage a surprise attack on Ukrainian Kiev. The best part is Putin and Russia, after condemning the rebellion and severing ties with the Wagner leader, can claim deniability or responsibility if Prigozhin sends his boys to attack not only Ukraine, but also the Eastern Europe countries.