Gombak prospects for Azmin Ali

Malaysiakini:

Azmin accused of trying to sideline Umno and PAS in Selangor

Senior Minister Azmin Ali has been accused of trying to turn his back on his new Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition partners Umno and PAS in Selangor after holding development coordination meetings at the state and district levels without both of the parties.

This has resulted in Gombak Umno and Gombak PAS saying they would only cooperate with each other based on the Muafakat Nasional bilateral agreement that had been signed previously, which is significant, as Azmin (photo, above) himself is Gombak MP.

Gombak PAS chief Salehuddin Mohd Nasir said that Azmin's actions seemed to be an attempt to sideline Muafakat Nasional in Selangor.

Umno division chiefs Megat Zulkarnain Omardin and Salehuddin Mohd Nasir are also questioning Azmin’s stand, saying he is not a member of any party.

Azmin did not call PN reps to the meeting and instead only had Selangor Menteri Besar Amirudin Shari (who is from Pakatan Harapan),” said Megat in an interview on the Gombak.tv Facebook page.

“Azmin appears confused whether he is with Harapan or Perikatan. Nevermind, whether or not he acknowledges Perikatan in Selangor, we don’t want to work with ex-PKR people in Gombak,” Megat said.

Salehuddin added that he had told Azmin's aide, Hilman Idham, who is also Gombak Setia assemblyperson, about their decision only to work with Umno under Muafakat Nasional.

“I feel as if there is some attempt to demoralise Muafakat Nasional in Gombak. I don’t even know which party is Azmin in? Where does he stand, who is he working for?” Salehuddin asked.

He also said the voters found it confusing that ex-PKR members who left the party or were sacked for being Azmin loyalists did not seem to have a political home.

“Gombak constituents cannot accept this lack of clarity," he said.

Azmin Ali held Gombak since 2008, when Pakatan Rakyat made tsunamic inroads that year into 5 states as well as nationally. Then he won the federal constituency from BN (UMNO) with a majority of 9.3% - not bad. 

Then in the following 2013 GE he held Gombak with a lesser majority, only 4.49% - still not too bad.

Malaysian general election, 2013

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	∆%
	PKR	Mohamed Azmin Ali	54,827	52.02	- 2.63
	BN	Raman Ismail	50,093	47.53	+ 2.18
	Independent	Said Nazar Abu Baker	474	0.45	+ 0.45
Total valid votes			105,394	100.00
Total rejected ballots			1,353
Unreturned ballots			393
Turnout			107,140	86.90
Registered electors			123,290
Majority			4,734	4.49
	PKR hold		Swing		{{{3}}}

But in 2018, the year when the political landscape of Malaysia shifted dramatically, Azmin re-secured Gombak with an amazing 40.93% -  a landslide in any language. But that year, UMNO and PAS decided on a wrong strategy when both contested Gombak at the same time hoping to draw Malay votes away from PH, but instead splitting their heartland votes among themselves (UMNO and PAS) and making Azmin (then in PH) looked super good.

Prior to 2018, it's believed that PAS favoured Azmin because of Pakatan Rakyat and, subsequently after PR collapsed, also special kamcheng between Azmin and the Islamic Party in Selangor. Azmin was suspected of then having a secret deal with PAS outside PR, wakakaka. But alas, this time around, PAS is believed to want to win Gombak for itself as a domain of considerable strength. With UMNO backing it as part of Muafakat Nasional it may be powerfully significant.

Malaysian general election, 2018

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	∆%
	PH	Mohamed Azmin Ali	75,113	63.10	+63.10
	BN	Abdul Rahim Pandak Kamarudin	26,392	22.17	-25.36
	PAS	Khairil Nizam Khirudin	17,537	14.73	+14.73
Total valid votes			119,042	100.00
Total rejected ballots			933
Unreturned ballots			573
Turnout			120,548	85.43
Registered electors			141,112
Majority			48,721	40.93
	PH hold		Swing

Previously there were three state seats within the boundaries of the Gombak parliamentary constituency - Gombak Setia, Hulu Kelang and Batu Caves. I am not sure what Gombak will be carved up as for GE15, but nonetheless, the 3 state seats were won by PH in 2018.

Saari Sungib having won Hulu Kelang prior to 2018, then frogged across to Amanah, but still holds that constituency in GE14.

Muhammad Hilman Idham, an Azmin aide, won Gombak Setia in GE14, while Batu Caves was renamed Sungai Tua and won by Amirudin Shari, the current Selangor MB and a known Azmin matey but still hanging around in PKR. Push comes to Shove, Amirudin will join Azmin.

Thus the above indicate that Gombak has a sizeable Azmin following, though with Azmin having deserted PKR, the waters in Sungai Tua (Batu Caves - purported under Amirudin Shari for PKR but notionally for Azmin Ali, wakakaka) and Gombak Setia (held by another Azmin macai, Hilman when he was in PKR) are still murky. But with Azmin's cunning and Machiavellian dealings (and his Selangor MB matey's considerable influence in the state), he may yet foster powerful followings in those state seats with benefits for his ability to hold on to his federal constituency of Gombak.

That leaves one state seat Hulu Kelang (51,000+ registered voters), with Saari Sungib (Amanah).

Would support for the incumbents in Gombak Setia and Sungai Tua (Batu Caves) be enough to flow upwards for Azmin to win the Gombak federal constituency again in GE15? If Hilman and Amirudin Shari can muster the same degree of support (gained in GE14) for their state re-elections, then it'll be a shoo-in for Azmin Ali.

Mind you, PAS and UMNO won't split their supporters again as they did in 2018.

Saari Sungib 

To be steadfast sure for Azmin, the question is, will Amanah (Saari Sungib in Hulu Kelang) also back Ass-binte in GE15? You never know because Amanah has become the most devoted-to-Atuk since the Sheraton Move eff-ed up Harapan, and it's believed there still exists kamcheng between Atuk and blue-eyed boy. Yes, Atuk may hold influence over Amanah. It then depends on how Machiavellian the suspected & alleged Atuk-Azmin conspiratorial plot is and will be?

So on paper and past statistics, Ass-binte looks pretty safe in Gombak even though he may possibly face trouble from Muafakat Nasional, unless of course he joins them, wakakaka.

But I reckon he won't be welcomed as the Muakafat Nasional people have already said he has turn his back on his new Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition partners Umno and PAS in Selangor (for more info on this/his posture, ask Haziq, wakakaka) after holding development coordination meetings at the state and district levels without both of the parties. But everything is possible in politics, especially when it involves a snaky double-dealing Ass-binte and his also snaky double-speaking Godfather.

And whether he still stands in Gombak or not, rest assure PKR will be hounding him in any federal constituency he will be competing in GE15. That will be the potential danger for him rather than from Muafakat Nasional.