On 31 January 2019, more than a month ago, I had written:
On the basis of the 2018 GE result, Pribumi should win in the coming March by-election as it has a handsome 51% share of the votes won last year. But a few factors need to be taken into considerations, namely:
(a) the Cameron Highlands by-election saw, as shown by Bridget Welsh in MKINI's ‘Old Malaysia’ in Cameron Highlands, the Malays swinging to BN-UMNO by over 31.5%.
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Bridget Welsh |
One can argue that the Malays in Semenyih are not Heartland/FELDA Melayu and thus won't swing so much even if they swing.
But what if the Malays in Semenyih were to swing by just 10%? Based on 2018 stats, that is equivalent to roughly 3000 votes, which is enough for UMNO to win.
But what if the Malays in Semenyih were to swing by just 10%? Based on 2018 stats, that is equivalent to roughly 3000 votes, which is enough for UMNO to win.
My visitors laughed at my political prognosis but yesterday's results of the Semenyih's by-election proves me right. Wakakaka.
My glee is not so much about UMNO winning the seat back but at Pribumi losing in a Malay majority constituency.
A couple of likely outcomes from yesterday's tea leaves - Pribumi won't be so arrogant now, and that's the BEST feeling I have gained.
Though I suspect and expect Pribumi is now more likely to strive frenetically for UMNO frogs. Now, do you still remember what I say about 'frogs'? To qualify to be such a 'frog', each must be an ADUN or MP, otherwise the bloke or blokess is only a useless tadpole, wakakaka.
But alas, the succeeding victories in CH and Semenyih might have given UMNO a new leash on its political relevance for GE15, and thus a deterring hand on those wannabe-frogs among its membership, wakakaka. Not my bloody dilemma lah, wakakaka again.
But Pribumi will now have to lean more and more on the DAP and Amanah, and yes, the Dökkálfar Dwarfs of PKR. And I bet Anwar Ibrahim is laughing his guts out now.
The saddest oracle reading from the exposed entrails of the poor sembileh-ed kambing is the death knell for PSM. I am sorry for these earnest peoples but Dr Jeya, Arutchelvan and company should think of a less political role for themselves or, join PKR, DAP or even merge with PRM etc to form a bigger more noticeable Socialist Front.
And for eff-sake, change PSM's logo - the Malays don't like red by the way. Even Pribumi has been sial-ed by that colour. Only UMNO can get away with red.
Bersatu kena sembelih-ed in Semenyih.
ReplyDeleteI hope they contest in Rantau, this time against the UMNO acting President. Put up a big gun, the biggest you have.
Come on now Toonise and Dinny, don't chicken out.
No doubt the Bossku propagandist got himself drunk out in town last night celebrating..... a big fat bonus check coming soon, as compensation for his hard work.
ReplyDeleteA certain Tan Sri former N9 MB comes to mind, from Jelebu...
ReplyDeleteIt's clear TDM's strategies and politics of old ain't working anymore. Blame it on all his close advisers from the days of old still hovering around thinking they are the Modern Oracles and campaign strategists and forgetting that social media and the speed of Information disemination (whether true or false) are uncontrollable in creating perceptions.
ReplyDeleteAnd it's also clear that TDM's presence or Ahjibkor's presence in election campaigning are in reality ineffectual and a liability to both parties whatever dedak analysts and kaki bodeks want to say, all based on their perceptions.
So, when is TDM stepping down and let others to helm the PH coalition just like what Ahjibkor has done to save his party?
Does it have to wait until the next GE15? By then there may not be even a PH Govt. or coalition anymore.
And we will all be back to the stone age days of kleptocrats, thieves, robbers, corrupted liars, cheaters, racists, religious bigots reigning over Malaysia again.
I am concerned Mahathir is going to react to this with more 1999's mentality.... pull more UMNO members in, more Ketuanan Melayu.
DeleteThere is no way Pakatan can out-Melayu UMNO and out-Islam PAS. That is a fool's ending.
Focus on improving economic opportunities , reforms.
PH cannot afford to betray its base support.
yes, fulfil the manifesto include uec or abolish whatever deemed sensitive, at least u create trust, determination, n show a clear direction. the problem is, mahathir may not be the right one to do all this, many ph manifesto subject is against his belief.
Deletedun talk 60 years past deed, no one is interested.
dap cant counter in political context the narrative that non malay take over some important post in govt, its a fact, what they can do is to show result, however if u compare dap minister against mca/gerakan, one would notice they r not up to mark. the chinese shd recognise the fact that, one can criticise bersatu or pkr tis n tat, but we need a mirror, dap is equally worse, their so called leaders r mostly yes man that kneeling and bowing around lims, thay r not that better compare against bersatu or pkr. can they do it? i dun know.
i think pkr have more talented people compare to dap.
fmt hv a gd writes from tr i told u so. shoe is on the other food, every dog has it day or whatever one call it, pretty funny to see ph now act almost exactly the same with bn, their narrative, action, response is just a copy. dap is dog, malay party is master, take care of malay chinese indian feeling, nothing much did on economy n cost of living. is this not one of reason y bn get kicked out?
ReplyDeleteif u ask me, mahathir shd start his proper succession plan, make it transparent. secondly, dap need to recruit more non political talent, lge cannot be fm, he just dun have the experience n know how.
ageed with HY
Deletetoo right about the psm logo, looks like an invitation to a fist fight, and a fight they should not have got themselves involved in, in a democracy I suppose you have to put up with the occasional nuisance in an election, no apologies for being blunt
ReplyDeleteby elections are bragging rights exercise, the outcome is usually inconsequential to the overall scheme of things, the ge is a different ball game
fog the frog
The PSM Clenched Fist logo had Marxist antecedents.
DeleteWhile PSM has some decent people like Jeyakumar, the logo just rubs many people the wrong way.