PKR & Pribumi problems in Selangor seat allocations

Malaysiakini - S'gor seat talks – follow principles, advises Rafizi (extracts):

The Selangor Pakatan Harapan seat allocation talks might go more smoothly once all members agree on a set of principles to negotiate, as was done with seat negotiations at the federal level, PKR vice-president Rafizi Ramli said.

“It is not uncommon that seat negotiations start with a lot of complications.

“Once the negotiators can agree on a set of principles, then it becomes quite easy because all the allocations will fall in line with the principles.

“That’s exactly what we did (at the federal level). We agreed on a set of principles and then you evaluate seat by seat against all these principles,” Rafizi told Malaysiakini in an interview last week.

He was commenting on the much-publicised issues surrounding the Selangor Harapan seat negotiations, such as the initial confusion over which committee was mandated to discuss seats allocation, the public spat between PKR and Amanah on seat negotiations and Bersatu declining to recognise the outcome of the ongoing negotiations.

Rafizi said Harapan seat negotiators at the federal level followed several principles, including that incumbent seats should be left as they are, the “winnability” factor, fair representation and several other considerations.

Firstly we need to remind ourselves that Selangor has 56 state seats, where a simple majority of 29 wins the right to form the state government. Obviously if Pakatan and BN each wins 28 seats, then we have a hung parliament in the state - at this early stage we won't consider the issue of the Speaker, etc.

In the last paragraph of news article above, the most difficult principles to follow would be "several other considerations" wakakaka. I don't propose to go into that unless I come across a bright idea of nugget in the course of writing this post.

But let's look at the main ones, namely:

(a) incumbency,

(b) winnability,

(c) fair representation.

On the factor of incumbency, in GE13, ignoring attribution along the way, Pakatan Rakyat coalition won as follows:

PAS - 15 seats out of 20
PKR - 14 out of 21
DAP - 15 out of 15

But with PAS no longer in Pakatan Harapan, and two of their ADUN now with Amanah, I believe if teh coalition were to stick to factor (c) above, Amanah should be given (not 20) but at least 15 seats (as per its Mothership's incumbency).

So PH's primary allocation in Selangor state (note the adjective 'primary' in 'allocation' which means there's still residue stuff to resolve amongst the members) should be as follows:

Amanah - 15
PKR - 14
DAP - 15

... leaving 12 seats to resolve.

If PH allocates the 12 UMNO-won seats to newcomer Pribumi, then the coalition would have satisfied the principles of (a) incumbency, (b) winnability, and (c) fair representation, though we need to discuss factor (c) a bit more.

But two factors militate against the above 'primary' allocation, namely, the greed of both PKR and Pribumi. In one of my early posts on the undesirability of including Pribumi in PH, I mentioned that with more "members" in a group, there would be less share per "person". And now my advice has been vindicated.

Ignoring the principles except for fair representation, then 56 divided by 4 members gives each party 14 seats, which on the surface seems fair enough.

But DAP will insist on incumbency, thus I (naturally as a biased DAP supporter, wakakaka) recommend that:

(a) DAP keeps 15,
(b) PKR keeps 15 which is more what its incumbency, (c) Amanah keeps 13 instead of 15, which should be reasonably fair as the 15 was actually won by the Mothership.
(d) Pribumi gets 13 which is generous considering its newcomer status,

... but obviously PKR and Pribumi won't agree as PKR still dreams of at least 21, if not more, whilst Pribumi wants more than the UMNO 12 including some of PKR's and PAS'.

Another formula to satiate PKR's and Pribumi's greed may be:

(a) DAP 15
(b) PKR 20
(c) Pribumi 20
(d) Amanah one, wakakaka.

Let's look at the factor of winnability which should then tell us:

(a) DAP won all 15 thus has winnability in those 15,
(b) PKR won 14 out of 21, thus has winnability in 14 and ZILCH winnability in 7
(c) Amanah representing PAS won 15, thus has winnability in 15 and ZILCH winnability in 5.

Pribumi has no winnability track record, thus should kuai-kuai accept 12 (7 from PKR's loss and 5 from PAS' loss).

I think we are back to where we started, hence the following MUST be the best formula, namely:

Amanah - 15
PKR - 14

DAP - 15
Pribumi -12

We could deduct one seat from Pribumi to give to PKR to make the glutton happy, wakakaka.

Pribumi can take it or f**k off. I don't like the idea of PH bullying Amanah like an adopted brother. Racist Pribumi should be the adopted brother.