Selangor PAS said it was "wajib (a responsibility)" to field candidates in Gombak, a parliamentary seat presently held by Selangor Menteri Besar and PKR deputy president Mohamed Azmin Ali.
"Taking back the Gombak parliamentary seat is 'wajib' for us," said Selangor PAS chief Sallehen Mukhyi today.
Sallehen said this when responding to a question following his announcement that Selangor PAS was ready to contest 42 out of 56 state seats in Selangor.
There are three state seats within the boundaries of the Gombak parliamentary constituency - Gombak Setia, Ulu Kelang and Batu Caves.
Of the three, PAS candidates won the election in Gombak Setia and Ulu Kelang, while Batu Caves went to a PKR candidate.
This indicates that Gombak has a sizeable PAS following.
Sallehen's announcement comes in the wake of efforts by several top PKR leaders, including Azmin, to forge an electoral pact with PAS ahead of the next general election.
Azmin had repeatedly stated that he was on a mission to ensure the opposition had straight fights with BN.
Really? For a man who already sees himself as the next PM of Malaysia, it's doubtful he hasn't have a trick or two up his sleeve.
I dare say the dwarf has already kowtim-rised the so-called threat to his seat in Gombak. Don't be surprised if the PAS candidate for Gombak finds himself "disqualified" on application day.
The dwarf has even gotten rid of the pseudo image he is ever loyal to Anwar where now he sees himself as the Pakatan PM-designate.
Far more interesting than the above bull, I am more interested in PAS declared intention to contest in 42 of the 56 state seats in Selangor. With the blessing of Allah swt we could get the first even PAS state government in Selangor.
However, I doubt His Almighty is that cruel to inflict such horrid punishment on us.
I'm sure its not Ktemoc's intended purpose, but his various actions are actually supporting a PAS State government in Selangor.
ReplyDeleteGE 14 will be "fun" to watch, especially with three, four, five, six, etc - cornered fights.
ReplyDeleteIn 2013, Azmin won Gombak with 54,827 votes or 52.0%
His opponent Raman Ismail of the BN got 50,093 votes or 47.53%
An independent candidate Said Nazar Abu Baker got a mere 474 votes 0.45%
Turnout in 2013 was 107,140 electors or 86.90% of registered voters in Gombak
In 2008, Azmin Ali won with 40,334 votes or 54.65%
His one-on-one opponent Said Anuar Said Ahmad of the BN got 33,467 votes or the remaining 45.35%
Azmin got 2.65 fewer percentage points of votes in 2013 than in 2008.
Turnout in 2008 was 75,619 voters or 76.26% of registered voters.
Going back further to 2004, the BN's Raman Ismail got 39,870 votes 59.93%
His one-on-one opponent Mohd Hatta Md. Ramli of PAS got 26,663 votes or 40.07%
Turnout in 2004 was 67,358 voters or 73.04 of registered voters.
We can expect the number of registered voters in Gombak to have increased somewhat by GE14 and assuming that in a two-cornered fight between PKR and BN, PKR gets 60,000 votes and BN gets 51,000 votes, so Azmin of PKR retains the seat.
However, in a three-cornered fight in Gombak between PKR, BN and PAS, PAS gets say 27,000 votes and BN gets 51,000 votes, that would leave PKR with 33,000 votes (60,000 - 27,000 votes), so BN wins with the largest minority of votes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gombak_(federal_constituency)
A similar situation actually hapepned in the Kota Damansara state seat in 2013.
In 2008, Dr. Mohd Nasir Hashim of Parti Sosialis Malaysia running under a PKR ticket got 11,846 votes or 52.38%
His one-on-one opponent Zein Isma Ismail of the BN got 10,771 votes or 47.62%
So Dr. Nasir won Kota Damansara
In 2013, in a six-cornered fight, Halimaton Saadiah Bohan of the BN got 16,387 votes or 42.27%
Still contesting under the PKR ticket, Dr. Nasir got 14,860 votes or 38.33%
PAS entered the fray with Ridzuan Ismail who got 7,312 votes of 18.86%
Independent candidate Halmi Omar got 116 votes or 0.30%
Independent candidate Edros Abdullah got 57 votes or 0.15%
Independent candidate Suppiah Anandan got 39 votes or 0.10%
BN won Kota Damansara with the largest minority of 42.27%
Going back to 2004 when BN stood head-on-head with PAS,
Mohd Mokhtar Ahmad Dahlan of the BN got 12,926 votes or 72.81%
Mohamad Ariff Md Yusof of PAS got 4,827 votes or 27.19%
BN won of course.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kota_Damansara_(state_constituency)
When PAS was part of Pakatan, PAS loyalists would vote for the PKR or DAP candidate where no PAS candidate stood but now that PAS loyalists are split between PAS and PAN, PAS' former vote could be about halved in a contest involving PAS and PAN (a.k.a. Amanah), such as happened in the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar byelections in which BN retained the two seats with a slim majority of votes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sungai_Besar_(federal_constituency)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuala_Kangsar_(federal_constituency)
GE 14 will be more interesting, with PAS' exit from Pakatan, then the split in PAS into PAS and PAN, with PAN joining Pakatan, then with the formation of Pribumi by ex-UMNO people, then Pribumi joining Pakatan.
Now PAS can split the Pakatan vote, PAN will split the PAS vote as it did in the above two byelections and Pribumi can split the UMNO vote.
So what happens if BN wins the largest minority of seats in parliament. Can it rule as a minority government or will it have to find a party with enough seats to form a coalition government with a simple majority of seats?
malaysia hasn't have a minority government before so best bet is to gabong with nearest kawan
Deletesheiss, do u think the secular umno really wan to share power with pas? they know this could be a no return path bec in the long term, pas is the only party that could challenge umno hegemony, it seem now najib chose to expedite the progress.
DeleteHY,
ReplyDeleteYou asked: "sheiss, do u think the secular umno really wan to share power with PAS?"
Good question. Off hand, I don't think so but if BN gets short of 50% in parliament in GE14, it may feel compelled to do so in order to form a coalition government, since the number of seats PAS wins will be small, relative to UMNO's and the other BN member parties, so it UMNO/BN will still have the bigger say. However, such a coalition may not be stable, given the very different ideologies and could break up after a while.
That said, there is a rumour floating around that the Anwar faction within PKR could return to UMNO but so far, that's just teh tarik talk until confirmed otherwise.
that PKR section that wants to go home to mama is HY's faction
Delete