PAS' prospects in Sungai Besar

Malaysia-Today - PAS as a Third Force

Australian politician Pauline Lee Hanson very nearly started a viable Third Force in Australian politics but when Australian voters became more familiar with her brand and style of politics they withdrew support for her politics

RPK propounded some interesting political points about and for PAS in his new post, which I intend to take on for discussions in a new posting, but not today.

For this evening I only want to comment on one of his commentator's remarks (but not RPK's post itself, though of course the commentator's remarks would be related to his post).

M2Day visitor Norizan Bin Yahaya commented in relation to the two pending by-elections in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar, saying [unedited]:

I think UMNO will win Kuala Kangsar but PAS will narrowly take Sungai Besar and Amanah will be lucky not to lose their deposits. Mahathir will be happy if PAS can win a sit....what a unique scene that will be but PAS will be quick to disassociate itself from Mahathir.

I believe his views would be a typical take on the by-elections by the Malays. I propose to present my views as well though I have no doubt many Chinese will kill me if I so much as dare to suggest I represent the Chinese view point, wakakaka.

So no, this is only kaytee's assessment, which I further propose to limit my take to only the Sg Besar by-election.

On Norizan's belief that PAS will win Sg Besar, I would very dearly love to, and indeed also with some degree of confidence, say there is no way that'll ever happen. Yes, there's only a snowflake chance of PAS winning in Sg Besar.

But then with UMNO and PAS in what I termed as incestous relation in my previous post 
The sex of Malaysian politics who knows what kowtim-ness telah diatur & diberes-kan behind the scene between UMNO and PAS?

Could there be a possibility of 'You take Kuala Kangsar, I take Sungai Besar' a la bisa diatur?

Thus I will play safe and say there is only one way for PAS to win Sg Besar (or for that matter, Kuala Kangsar a la one for you and one for me), and that is, ONLY if UMNO (Najib or Mahathir's UMNO) allows it, principally by PAS winning from the Malay voters base which constitutes approximately 70% of registered voters in that constituency.

And the above is because the 30% voters who are of Chinese ethnicity (and most of whom voted PAS in 2013) will NOT vote for the Islamic Party this time, nay not one single vote, principally because of hudud and partly because of the DAP support for Amanah and MCA-Gerakan support for UMNO.

The best outcome for PAS is if the Chinese in Sg Besar stay at home with their fave election past-time, playing mahjung and pakkau, wakakaka, for otherwise PAS can say ta-ta to 30% of the total votes. Perhaps a PAS fatwa dispensation for Chinese to be still blessed even if they sin in main judi on the by-election day, may be advisable, wakakaka.

So if PAS or Norizan has factored the Chinese votes as part of the Islamic Party's winning factors, then the party is fantasizing.

The only Chinese who will vote for PAS are Ridhuan Tee Abdullah and Ustaz Ann Wan Seng, assuming both are registered voters in Sg Besar, wakakaka

Ooops wait, I forget there is an off chance PKR VP Tian Chua (and perhaps a few of his PKR Chinese followers) may possibly support PAS, based on his publicly stated wish for PKR to continue its alliance with PAS. And I suspect Tian Chua may not be partial to Amanah too, so there are more reasons for him supporting PAS.

I wonder whether he is a registered voter in Sg Besar? Wakakaka.

As for PKR in general, you have to guess where its support will lie?