400,000 missing

Mark Twain popularized the phrase "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" in the USA, but attributing those words to British PM Benjamin Disraeli though the verdict on the originator of that phrase is still out.

Anyway, Disraeli was reputed to have said: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

This brings us to the number of people participating in Bersih 4.0. The police said it was 50,000, while Bersih claimed it was 10 times that or 500,000 (half a million).

Obviously, even without checking who has been correct, we could possibly say the numbers shrink or expand in accordance with the attitude of the assessor towards Bersih 4.0, wakakaka.

So Politweet, an independent social media research firm decided to ascertain the numbers in as scientific a method as it could, so as to come up with a definitive figure.

Using aerial and satellite photos and videos, and comparing those with gridded maps showing the size of key areas, and the number of people humanly possible in such areas, etc, it came up with a figure for Bersih’s TOTAL attendance for the 2 days of attendance as between 79,919 to 108,125, say an average of 100,000.

Politweet’s determined figures are, as reported by the Malay Mail Online (extracts):

Bersih’s crowd peaked on August 29th (the 1st Day) between 45,892 — 62,089 people. Perhaps if only Day 1 was considered then the police estimates would be correct.

Politweet further broke down the Bersih 4.0 rally into four time periods, where the lowest estimate for the bulk of the protestors on the first day is at 45,892 people, first night at 9,837, second day at 14,782 and final night at 23,511.

Adding up the total minimum crowd sizes for all four periods led to an estimated 94,022 figure — between 79,919 and 108,125 when adjusted by allowing for a 15 per cent margin of error going both ways.

It offered an optional method of using the average peak figures for the first day (53,991) and second night (28,654) to calculate a total of 82,645, with the same margin of error adjustment pointing to 70,248 and 95,042 protesters.

Let’s be generous and say a TOTAL attendance of 100,000 over the 2 days.

I hope Maria Chin Abdullah won't be too disappointed with her missing 400,000.

But isn't the missing 400,000 somewhat of a coincidence of figures with the 40,000 missing Bangladeshi Anwar Ibrahim claimed to have participated in the general elections in 2013, also coincidentally 10 times more, wakakaka. On this, do read also my post Bangla in Pilihanraya over at KTemoc Komposes, wakakaka again.

Vin Scully, an American sportscaster, said: Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination.