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Friday, July 18, 2014

Malaysia's Annus Horribilis

Aviation-wise, 2014 has been a terrible year for Malaysia - in 1992 a foreign queen in a distant land once termed such a horrendous period as annus horribilis (horrible year).



Malaysia suffered two major and catastrophic aviation disasters, first with Flight MH370 and now with Flight MH017. Coincidentally, both flights had used the Boeing 777-200ER.

In the second and current case, MH017, it has unfortunately elicited quite unfair criticism from angry relatives of the first disaster. As reported by The Malay Mail Online, they said rather preposterously that the downing of a Malaysia Airlines jet in Ukraine was no mere coincidence, adding today that it lends weight to their harsh criticism of the carrier.

One commented that “it was only a matter of time that a new tragedy hit the struggling flag carrier because when symptoms of a disease are ignored, the disease festers”.

While I can understand and even accept such severe criticisms and condemnations from angry relatives, especially about the poor post-accident management of the MH370 disaster, I find the current allegations about the tragedy of MH017 rather nonsensical and unfair.



MH017 did not disappear into thin air but was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile over Ukraine. I suppose we could say, without disrespect to the victims' families, it was unfortunately in the wrong place at the wrong time when it could have been an aircraft of another airline.

The route had been cleared by ICAO and flown by numerous airlines, such as Lufthansa, Thai Airways, SIA and Air India.

Malaysiakini reported that according to the flight tracking website Flightradar24, a Singapore Airlines and an Air India flight were about 25 km away from MH17 when contact with the Boeing 777 was lost – all in Ukrainian airspace east of Donetsk.

Thus, a la but-by-the-grace-of-god-there-goes-me, the aircraft downed by the missile could have been a SIA or Air India flight, but alas, karma being a bitch decided that MH017 was to be the ill fated choice.



Thus the nonsensical attempt to associate the MH017 tragedy with the MH370 disaster is ridiculous, unfair and emotionally non-objective.

But the far more troubling thing is domestic political exploitation of a national disaster. In the MH370 case, we saw how Pakatan turned the tragedy against Najib, at a time when Malaysians should be closing rank.

For someone to accuse Najib, during a foreign press interview, of a 'cover up' regarding the abysmal lack of information about the missing aircraft when the PM was obviously and actually f* clueless about MH370's whereabouts, was opportunistic politicizing of the worst kind.

Then dirty linen was not only washed in public which I opine impaired on the already questionable status of our national security, ...

... but also fairy tales grew out of poisonous seeds not unlike Jack's Beanstalk, entertainingly beguiling us with Malaysia's super-duper ATC radar which, perhaps possessing capabilities akin to or far more than Australia's Jindalee over-the-horizon-radar, could look far into the Southern Indian Ocean and see the Lost City of Atlantis (and where I suppose MH370 had landed), and of non-existent 3-minutes air defence standby which were not launched.



But this time I am comforted by the statesmanship of DAP Lim Kit Siang in supporting Najib in a bipartisan stand on MH017, a rightful posture in times of national disasters and national needs. This is the civilised 1st World standard of bipartisan politics I want to see during times of national exigencies. We can resume combative partisan politics on less nationally tragic issues.

But alas, I forgot it was not the month of February when Valentine's Day would have kept PAS Youth pretty occupied, so a PAS Youth with spare time on its hands thought it could swing this disaster into some form of political gain, yes, by condemning MAS for flying a route which ICAO had approved and European ATC had cleared, and which of course with the advantage of hindsight was 'so cleverly' deemed to be of high risk, ...



... not unlike kaytee telling you now to pun on 3023 on last Sunday's Magnum 4-D draw.

Ain't it always easy to be wiser after the event, even for the ignorant!

But let's remind ourselves that MH017 has been a horrible national tragedy and we should all grouped together, at least to deal with the feelings of the victims' families and the very difficult aftermath of this Malaysian catastrophe.



35 comments:

  1. Penang sweetie Susan Loone's motto on her blog (unfortunately not active these days) "Integrity above Unity". Which I fully support.

    We need this approach if we are ever going to learn the right lessons from the twin tragedies of MH370 and MH17.

    So while we mourn the loss and attempt to give comfort to those who lost their loved ones, I cannot support your suggested "soft and respectful" approach to the authorities to hold them accountable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. where did I say "soft and respectful" approach to the authorities to hold them accountable???

      I urge, words to the effect, "don't stir shit with nonsense".

      Delete
  2. Yours have been one of the most sensible commentaries on this tragedy.Hope more people read this instead of spouting nonsense themselves.

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  3. I'm not yet satisfied with the answers from the government at this moment regarding the "risky route" query.

    ICAO may not have banned the flight route over Ukraine altogether , but my contacts tell me there WAS a worldwide FAA NOTAMs (Notice to Airmen) alert regarding the risk of civilian air traffic over the contested region of Ukraine, issued in April....

    I'm retired after years of flying planes, so I'm not current on these things anymore, but every pilot, and the operations management of the airline has a duty to take serious note and assess the implications of these NOTAMs for the areas over which they fly.

    What did MAS management know, when did they know it, did they take note of the NOTAM (which they are required to by regulations) , did they review whether the NOTAM should result in a change of flight route, who made decisions, when.....

    Was somebody asleep on the job ?

    I am not into wild accusations. I once flew multi-million dollar jets with hundreds of passengers on board.

    These are serious questions which MAS and the Malaysian government must answer, eventually.

    Please, no more SPIN. Surely we have learnt some lessons from MH370 ?

    ReplyDelete
  4. lks publish "Some other Asian carriers abandoned Ukraine airspace months ago" in his blog, i think he is merely sharing the view of others, n of course there r many opinion from diff angle, let the reader n audiance judge for themselves. we dun simply call this politicize or for political gain, dun so black n white la.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I have a suspicion Malaysia's Annus Horribilis has some Karmic connection with the powers-that-be in Malaysia's single-minded obsession with pursuing the case related to a certain

    Anus Horribilis (no spelling error intended).

    ReplyDelete
  6. "Karmic connection with the powers-that-be in Malaysia's single-minded obsession with pursuing the case related to a certain

    Anus Horribilis (no spelling error intended)."

    I call a spade a spade.

    Karma is catching up with BUMNO for using Saiful's arse and manipulating the entire legal system to destroy an innocent man for their nefarious purposes.

    Many people misunderstand and misinterpret Karma as "Wrath of God" or "God's Punishment". No such thing.
    Karma is neither good nor evil, its just a Law of nature, like the 3rd Law of Motion in Physics.
    You do certain things, certain things happen latter. Cause and Effect.

    Sometimes, innocent bystanders tragically get caught up. Karma has not eyes.
    It is no more good or evil than an earthquake or a typhoon.

    Karma applies to nations as well....as Malaysia is finding and will continue to find out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If it's karma, then why are the Chinese and Dutch being punished as well?

      Delete
  7. Meanwhile , the worldwide media and superpower political frenzy over the tragedy of MH17 has allowed Israel's Ground Invasion of Gaza to take place almost under the radar.

    Sad for the Palestinians as well.

    ReplyDelete
  8. you're right - I stand corrected on stating ICAO approved the route.

    What I obtained from Reuters was this:

    The European Aviation Safety Agency did issue a safety bulletin, accompanied by recommendations from both the U.N.'s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and Brussels-based Eurocontrol, on April 3, advising that Crimean airspace should be avoided. Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in March.

    But those directives did not apply to the airspace over Ukraine being traversed by Flight MH17 when it was brought down. [...]

    After the crash, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said that "based on information currently available it is believed that the airspace that the aircraft was traversing was not subject to restrictions".

    ReplyDelete
  9. Here are some facts on the MH17 shootdown, which are in the public domain, and don't need to point accusations at anybody - the facts speak for themselves.

    - MH17 was shot down deep inside Rebel -held territory, close to the Russian border.
    - Almost certainly by a Surface-to-Air Missile
    - The vast majority of SAMs in the world are short range weapons (< 50 km horizontal range). They burn out rocket fuel very quickly because of their extreme rate of acceleration, and don't fly far.

    - The only Long-Range SAMs ( over 50 km range) available in the world are operated by Russia, China, USA and its closest allies such as UK , Germany and Japan.
    - Ukraine and the Rebels have none.
    - Therefore the SAM which brought down MH17 was fired from Rebel-held territory.

    Who shot down MH170. ?

    .....Ipso Facto.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. the fact thus far is we don't know. Using your arguments "USA and its closest allies such as UK , Germany and Japan", are you saying those former USSR soviet republics, Ukraine being the largest after Russia, don't have those long range missiles? In fact Ukraine even had nuclear war heads which it dismantled following US 'persuasion' $$$

      Delete
    2. From RT news = http://rt.com/news/173636-buk-malaysian-plane-crash/

      kaytee's note: see what Jane's Defense analyst says.

      ****
      The Ukrainian military has several batteries of Buk surface-to-air missile systems with at least 27 launchers, capable of bringing down high-flying jets, in the Donetsk region where the Malaysian passenger plane crashed, Russian Defense Ministry said.

      “According to the Russian Defense Ministry information, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine located in the crash-site are equipped with anti-aircraft missile systems of "Buk-M1” ... These complexes in their tactical and technical characteristics are capable of detecting air targets at ranges of up to 160 kilometers and hit them at full altitude range at a distance of over 30 kilometers,” the ministry’s statement reads as cited by Ria.

      Earlier, Itar-Tass and Interfax news agencies were citing a source familiar with the issue, who said that another battery of Buk systems is currently being prepared for shipment to Donetsk region from the Ukrainian city of Kharkov. […]

      There’s no way that the self-defense forces in Donetsk Region are in possession of such complex weaponry, he stressed. Only S-300 and Buk surface-to-air missile systems are capable of hitting targets at such altitude, the source said.

      Buk is a family of self-propelled, medium-range surface-to-air missile systems developed by the former USSR and Russia to engage targets at an engagement altitude of 11,000-25,000 meters depending on the model.

      Chances are high that the Malaysian plane was really downed by the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense, Yury Karash, pilot and aviation expert, told RT.

      “A Boeing-777 is an extremely reliable piece of machinery. Modern planes don’t just crash with no reason,” he said. “Let us recall how a Ukrainian missile downed Russian TU-154 aircraft ten years ago. I can’t completely exclude the possibility the Boeing-777 was also hit by a missile.”

      “I don’t know who could’ve shot it down. But I can allege that it was most likely the Ukrainian armed forces: simply because its military – anti-aircraft defense, in particular – are, unfortunately, unqualified. As judging by the overall state of the Ukrainian armed forces, insufficient attention has been paid to their training,” Karash added.

      Reports in the Western media hurried to blame the self-defense forces of the People’s Republic of Donetsk for bringing the plane down.

      The claims were denied by the representatives of the Donetsk People’s Republic, saying that it’s the Ukrainian military, which destroyed the aircraft.

      “We simply don’t have such air defense systems. Our man-portable air defense systems have a firing range 3,000 - 4,000 meters. The Boeing was flying at a much higher altitude,” Sergey Kavtaradze, special representative for the prime minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic, explained.

      **Note this one by Jane’s**

      IHS Jane’s Defense analyst, Nick de Larrinaga, also shared the belief that the self-defense forces lack the capability to bring the Malaysian plane down.

      “At normal cruising altitude a civilian passenger aircraft would be out of the range of the sort of manned portable air (defense) systems that we have seen proliferate in rebel hands in east Ukraine,” he said in a statement.

      But the aircraft would be within range of Buk or other medium-range surface-to-air missile systems, he stressed.

      “Both Russia and Ukraine have such SAM systems in their inventories,” the expert added.

      It seems unlikely that the self-defense forces could’ve used Buk surface-to-air missile systems to down the Malaysian plane, retired Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan, the director of the Defense and Intelligence Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, said.

      “It takes a lot of training and a lot of coordination to fire one of these and hit something,” he told CNN. “This is not the kind of weapon a couple of guys are going to pull out of a garage and fire.”

      According to Ryan, if the plane was really taken down then it was done by a professional military force

      Delete
    3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system

      Buk's or SA-17 horizontal range is only 32 km.

      MH17 was VERY likely to have been brought down by a SA-17, but it had to be fired from within Rebel-controlled territory.

      There are and were not any Ukrainian forces within 100 km of where MH17 went down - in fact the main reason why it is so difficult for international investigators to access the site.

      Delete
    4. "According to Ryan, if the plane was really taken down then it was done by a professional military force"

      That is completely true...and the most damning statement of all.
      There were no Ukrainian army units within 100 km of the shootdown zone. The rebels control the territory.
      So who ? There is certainly a professional military force nearby, just across the international border...go figure out who it is...

      Delete
  10. How to Rebuild an Airline2:57 pm, July 19, 2014

    In the 1980's , and 1990's Korean Airlines suffered multiple fatal loss of aircraft.
    One shot down by a Soviet fighter plane , one (suspected) blown up by North Korean bomb, several fatal crashes nearing landing.

    KAL nearly died as a functioning organisation.
    But typical Koreans, they persevered, they renamed the airline, rebuilt their airline from bottom up with determination and discipline.

    They put in place a powerful Operations Safety Directorate reporting directly to the Board President, who had the authority to institute any changes to airline organisation, operations, training, procedure, personnel discipline deemed necessary to rebuild Operational Safety.

    Many heads rolled.

    It worked.

    Korean Air has not suffered a single passenger death for the last 15 years. And it is profitable.

    It can be done, but I don't know whether Malaysia Airlines and Malaysia has the brains, determination, guts and grit to pick itself up again.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Buat Ketua Polis Negara, Polis Di Raja Malaysia (PDRM) dan Suruhanjaya Komunikasi dan Multimedia Malaysia (SKMM), bertindaklah dengan kadar segera sepertimana sepantas kilat kertas siasatan dibuka dan diambil ke atas pesalah buli jalanraya, Kiki yang terus dipanggil memberi keterangannya. Buktikan kepada RAKYAT MALAYSIA yang tuan-tuan budiman bertindak dengan adil berpaksikan undang-undang untuk semua kaum.       Read more at http://khairulryezal.blogspot.com/2014/07/hina-kapten-pesawat-mh17-dan-maki.html#7BdSGu3iK8zT3jkb.99

    ReplyDelete
  12. From TMI:

    Singapore Airlines jets flew over the same eastern Ukraine area 75 times in the past week.

    In contrast, MAS planes only flew over rebel-held Donetsk 48 times within the same period, Spiegel Online reported, citing flight tracking website flightradar24.com.

    It said Russian airline Aeroflot flew over the area 86 times in the past seven days, Ukraine International Airlines 62 times, and Germany’s largest airline, Lufthansa, 56 times.

    “Overflights were recorded here in the past seven days in a radius of nearly 240km to the Ukrainian industrial city.

    “In the ranking of the airlines, MAS is at fifth place with 48 overflights… the data shows that the region of Donetsk experienced brisk air traffic,” said Spiegel Online.

    “Whether the attack (against MH17) was a random act or even a mistake, it could have, therefore, happened to the planes of various other international airlines.”

    ***

    note that Russian airline Aeroflot flew over the area 86 times

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fuck....I have melayuss especially from malaysia tells me that MAS better than SIA......just after SQ006.......so now padan muka la

      Delete
    2. As I wrote in my post:

      Malaysiakini reported that according to the flight tracking website Flightradar24, a Singapore Airlines and an Air India flight were about 25 km away from MH17 when contact with the Boeing 777 was lost – all in Ukrainian airspace east of Donetsk.

      Thus, a la but-by-the-grace-of-god-there-goes-me, the aircraft downed by the missile could have been a SIA or Air India flight, but alas, karma being a bitch decided that MH017 was to be the ill fated choice.

      Delete
    3. if we ignore the idiot politician behind, mas is much betttttttter than sia in every aspect, sia is managed by a bunch of kiasu robot, and those loser that cant make it in msia.

      Delete
  13. FAA NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) April 3 2014

    http://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/ifim/us_restrictions/media/2014_04-03_fdc_notam_4-2816_ukraine.pdf

    FDC 4/2816 (A0010/14) AIRSPACE …SPECIAL NOTICE… UKRAINE
    POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SITUATION - UKRAINE AIRSPACE, PARTICULARLY OVER CRIMEA, THE BLACK SEA, AND THE SEA OF AZOV.
    DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICTING AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL (ATC) INSTRUCTIONS FROM UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN AUTHORITIES AND FOR THE RELATED POTENTIAL MISIDENTIFICATION OF CIVIL AIRCRAFT, UNITED STATES (U.S.) FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARE PROHIBITED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE IN THE AIRSPACE OVER CRIMEA, THE BLACK SEA, AND THE SEA OF AZOV, WITHIN THE FOLLOWING LATERAL LIMITS

    Note airspace over Crimea was PROHIBITED, however, there was a general hazard warning over all of Ukraine airspace.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To Kaytee......Mask still ok......shut your fucking up

      Delete
    2. Ayoyo...Anon 11.08 pm , you must realise that majority of current MAS management these days no speaky Inggeris......

      On a more serious note...I realised after reading this, if MAS knowingly failed to take appropriate action on an FAA notice (though legally non-binding on Malaysia), MAS could potentially be facing a gigantic legal exposure.
      Normal air crash compensation is limited by international treaty, but if negligence is proven, there is NO fixed treaty limit to punitive damages which can be awarded by a court.
      Relatives of Dutch passengers have a right to sue in a Dutch court since the flight took off from Amsterdam.

      Potentially "Bankerap, Tutup pintu"

      Delete
    3. The FAA Notam is only binding on US registered aircraft. The Yanks are known to be particular concerned about the more likely potential for US registered aircraft to be shot than other aircraft.

      It should be interesting to read that with this TMI report:

      http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/sia-used-same-mh17-flight-path-75-times-in-past-week-says-german-magazine

      Singapore Airlines jets flew over the same eastern Ukraine area 75 times in the past week.

      In contrast, MAS planes only flew over rebel-held Donetsk 48 times within the same period, Spiegel Online reported, citing flight tracking website flightradar24.com.

      It said Russian airline Aeroflot flew over the area 86 times in the past seven days, Ukraine International Airlines 62 times, and Germany’s largest airline, Lufthansa, 56 times.

      “Overflights were recorded here in the past seven days in a radius of nearly 240km to the Ukrainian industrial city.

      “In the ranking of the airlines, MAS is at fifth place with 48 overflights… the data shows that the region of Donetsk experienced brisk air traffic,” said Spiegel Online.

      “Whether the attack (against MH17) was a random act or even a mistake, it could have, therefore, happened to the planes of various other international airlines.”

      looes is unhappy that Malaysia and MAS can't be MORE buggered. I understand his anti-Malaysia anti-MAS proclivities because he is a Sing (f**k your SIA Facebook page) and a suspected son of M Foot, a Pom.

      Anon of 1:06 am, as you said the FAA Notam is NOT binding on MAS so what legal action can the passengers' families take against MAS based on that? They can instead sue Euro-ATC for permitting flights through that area.

      Delete
    4. Let me explain a bit of background on the aviation industry, and the realities of the international legal and power framework.

      Strictly speaking, FAA NOTAMs are only legally binding on US registered Aircraft, as well as flights originating or terminating in the United States.

      However, the FAA is considered the Head of the Family by almost all Aviation Regulators in the world (except maybe a few countries which consider the United States as an enemy). This is due to historical, commercial as well as technological reasons.

      FAA has a disproportionate influence and power in the global civil aviation industry (its grating to some people who don't like the Americans, but that is the reality.)

      FAA regulations and notices are treated very seriously by all airlines and Aviation regulators around the world, including Malaysia.
      First of all, they usually contain good, sensible advice to follow, even if it is not compulsory for other countries.
      Second, FAA is strictly non-political. It doesn't matter if you don't like the American government, Obama or George W. Bush.
      This is all about aeroplanes and flight safety.

      Third, if something untowards happens, if a court case alleging negligence comes up, a key question for the court to consider will be whether the airline exercised due diligence to minimise the risk.
      "Due diligence" is not limited to legally binding rules and regulations.

      Lastly, I don't want to simply read news reports, but if some other international airlines were using the same route over Eastern Ukraine, they may have all been skating on thin ice.

      The only difference is MH17 fell through the ice, the others didn't.
      The rest is a tragedy.

      Delete
    5. You have provided a very good description of the FAA and its global influence and power. Just a couple of corrections to your description, namely:

      (a) "FAA has a disproportionate influence and power in the global civil aviation industry" - I know what you intended to say but let rephrase that, its influence is NOT disproportionate as the USA is the BIGGEST aviation nation in the world in terms of its civil aviation industry leadership, aircraft production, airline type aircraft flying, scope of civil flying globally, number of passengers carried per unit time, etc nd we haven't even touched on military aviation yet.

      However, while the FAA like the British CAA, the Australian CASA and the equivalent aviation regulatory bodies in Europe and elsewhere in the world, is concerned principally with aviation safety, it's not correct to say it's not political. It's political in an indirect way in that as a US federal agency it will/must do the biding of the US government. These might not be seen but rest assure, the US national requirements would have been dutifully conducted.

      On your third point, it's not easy to prove MAS was not duly diligent without, contrary to your assertion, reference to laws, regulations, rules and procedures and even company policies. A court without referring to those laws, regulations, rules, procedures, policies, cannot simply draw someone out of a judge's wig to say MAS had not exercised due diligence.

      Delete
  14. The full passenger list of MH17 has been published....and what a horror..
    Many of those on board MH17 were families travelling with children. Its the school holiday season in Europe.

    Many entire families have been wiped out.

    My eyes filled with tears when I read the stories.....
    Tomorrow is Sunday. I will say my little prayer for them.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Time to Speak Up, Please5:20 pm, July 20, 2014

    Who carried out the downing of MH17 is not known, but we know for sure Russian-backed rebels are preventing access by international investigators (including the Malaysian contingent) to secure the site, and also ensure the dead are handled with dignity to be returned to their loved ones.

    I do not understand why both the Malaysian government and the Malaysian public have been so muted in speaking up to demand unfettered access by international teams to secure the site.

    This was a Malaysian aircraft, a piece of Malaysian territory which has been violated. We know all the passengers are dead, but we need to bring their remains home.
    The Dutch and the Australians are certainly not keeping quiet. Why is Malaysia so ?

    ReplyDelete
  16. As usual u couldnt stop taking a snide against anwar amidst this tragedy
    Didnt anwar come out supporting the condemnation of this mass murder?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Aiyah, kaytee can't stop thinking about Anwar...
      IF he could find an angle to excoriate Anwar, he would gladly do so.
      I'm sure Kaytee is leaving no stone unturned.

      Delete
  17. The answer is NO.
    The ICAO has NO day-to-day decision making role in aircraft routes and operations. The link in Syed's blog makes racy reading but is purely speculative and imaginative.

    That air traffic safety regulation role, including the Icelandic Volcano European airspace shutdown, belongs to EASA , the European Aviation Safety Agency.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Grieving relatives of MH17....mothers, fathers, sons, daughters...dead bodies rotting in the summer sun as Russian-backed militia refuse international teams access to the crash site.

    Enough is enough.

    NATO needs to get involved.
    If necessary, the crash site should be secured by NATO troops and air-cover, to allow the bodies to be recovered and an independent international investigation to do its work.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Guys,
      If that gung ho Bush Junior can just watch Putin rolling in his tanks into Georgia, you think NATO can do anything hah. Of course, kaytee would make this remark about USA provoking mother russia. Perhaps, kaytee thought that Putin is an atheist right? Hahahahaha

      Delete
    2. This is different from Georgia, where NATO had no vital interests.

      220 of the dead were citizens of NATO countries, and there are loud and growing calls for their governments to "do something" to close this ghoulish charade and get the remains of their loved ones back.

      Nobody is wants a violent intervention. But if an NATO armed escort is needed to ensure the investigators are able to do the job without interference, they should have it.

      NATO has Apache helicopters and F16s across the border in Poland. What is missing may be political will.

      Delete