Leaving aside the complete unreliability of frogs, for simplicity sake let us still view that 20 of Sabah's 25 federal seats are held by BN. In neighbouring Sarawak, with peh-mo in almost total control, the BN holds 29 of its 31 federal seats.
If BN retains the East Malaysian status quo after the next election, then Najib would not be wrong in claiming Sabah and Sarawak are BN's fixed deposits.
But will BN?
222 - 56 East Malaysian seats = 166 peninsula federal seats
Immediately post GE-12, BN held 140 to Pakatan's 82 (whence AI had laughingly claimed he could obtain an additional deformed 30 MPs by 916 to give a Pakatan 112 majority versus BN's 110 wakakaka).
Thus, out of BN's 140, there were only (140 - 49 East Malaysian BN federal seats =) 91 federal seats in Peninsula.
Recall, immediately post GE-12, Pakatan had 75 peninsula federal seats, providing us with a OK Corral-like stand-off in Peninsula of 91 BN seats versus 75 Pakatan seats, a mere majority of 16.
Thus, assuming voters continue to vote Pakatan in those same 75 federal constituencies in Peninsula, the coalition only requires victory in another 9 seats to put BN gasping for breath in Peninsula like an ikan kembong landed on hot burning beach sands.
And in Peninsula, such a victory is very doable with doom and gloom already forecast for BN in the peninsula states of Johor, NS and Malacca, and which may explain UMNO becoming more and more feral (thuggish), with the UMNO Home Minister even talking like a petulant immature boy.
Mind though, BN (UMNO) may claw a couple back in Kedah because of one screwed-up bloke there who prefers UMNO to Pakatan's DAP and who has not cooperated well as a Pakatan leader should.
Assuming optimistically for an instant, Pakatan in GE-13 wins 84 federal seats in Peninsula to BN's 82 (and IMHO, it's quite likely to be more than just 84 wakakaka) it needs another 28 seats in East Malaysia to form the new Malaysian government.
Of that required 28 East Malaysian seats, the DAP has won and thus is fairly well entrenched in 3.
Will Pakatan be able to win another 25?
Alas, PAS has been obdurately selfish in Labuan, knowing full well it can't win in that constituency yet insisting it wants to stand its candidate there again. In GE-12, its candidate came last in a 3-corner fight and lost his deposit wakakaka.
Nonetheless I believe Pakatan is pressing the correct buttons when it promises:
- To restore autonomy within Sarawak and Sabah and making the two states equal partners.
- To increase national integration between Sarawak, Sabah and Peninsular Malaysia through a fair power-sharing agreement.
- To set up a Royal Commission to resolve problems of citizenship and illegal immigration in Sarawak and Sabah.
- To restore native customary rights over land and establishing a land commission.
- To ensure appointment of Sarawakians and Sabahans as heads of government departments at the state and federal level, within the state.
- To increase oil royalties from 5 percent to 20 percent.
- To ensure that infrastructural development in Sarawak and Sabah be up to par with Peninsular Malaysia
Najib has recently lost his cool and gone the way Dr Mahathir has, preposterously and pariah-lishly preaching a Malay last stand at Fort Ketuanan Melayu, indications of their total desperations.
But then, what else can Pakatan do to improve its election prospects, that is, besides Anwar's deformasi modus operandi, namely frogology?
Sabah and Sarawak will, unfortunately, likely remain (mostly) BN fixed deposits. I've had some interaction with the politicos there, and well understand their mentality.
ReplyDeleteThere is a deep suspicion and dislike for Peninsular politicians and political parties, regardless of whatever wrong BN may have done to Sabah and Sarawak. PBB, PBS etc. are welcomed as homegrown parties. The DAP may be an exception to that wih the Chinese community, but it is still overall a marginal party.
UMNO Sabah is, strictly speaking also an "Import", but generous distribution of "manna" by BN has ensured loyal participation by local leaders and wide acceptance within the Malay/Muslim community there.
There would need to be a strong local party allied to Pakatan Rakyat for it to make an impact there. So far I don't see any respectable candidates.
Jeffrey Kitingan and Yong Teck Lee are tainted candidates, and anyway, have no interest in a real alliance with PR.
F*ck Anwar
ReplyDeleteF*ck PR
BN will in GE13...after that Anwar Ibrahim goes back to jail with the successful prosecution appeal on his Sodomy case.
Pakatan can do nothing without Taib.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction :-
1) Pakatan will have more than 50% of the popular vote once votes are all counted.
2) Barisan Najis will have more than half of the MP seats including Taib's share.
3) Taib will b the MOFO who holds the balance of power, he swings to Barisan Najis or Pakatan will determine who forms the govt.
4) IMO, Sabah is not the key to forming the next govt, Sarawak is.
sunwayopal
sunwayopal
But No 1 alone will finally prove conclusively how our corrupt and UMNO running dof EC has gerrymandered the whole election system such that more Malaysians voted for Pakatan than for Barisan Najis but Barisan Najis has more MP seats. (assuming Taib throws his lot with Barisan Najis)
ReplyDeletesunwayopal
We can do all the maths we want, but this is how the war is won....read and weep this first hand account :
ReplyDelete"I returned from Hong Kong on flight MH 073 on 17th July 2012 which landed in KLIA at about 6.15pm. Disembarkation and baggage clearance was prompt with no hassles.
When I arrived at the Immigration “autogate” there was a queue. There was no officer in the immigration booth manning the gates.
I noted about seven Pakistani nationals; all in their national costumes, hogging all the autogates. They were struggling to put their passports in the passport reader and get their fingerprints verified.
The Malaysians in the queue started commenting in loud voices:
- “This lane is for Malaysian Passports only”
- “Please join the other queue for foreign passports” etc.
Some, thinking that they were foreign workers, got impatient and spoke with raised voices:
- “ Barisan ini untuk Passport Malaysia”
- “Tolong pergi ke kaunter international passport” etc.
These gentlemen stood firm; oblivious to the comments, speaking in their native language and giving instructions to each other on how to use the reader. As more Malaysians arrived, the queue got longer.
I broke out of the queue and checked the passports – and they ALL had Malaysian Passports. On enquiring, they responded in broken English that they had just arrived on flight PK 894 from Peshawar. All the Malaysians in the queue were shocked.
Disgusted, I walked to the Priority Counter, (I had a Priority Pass) got clearance and asked the Immigration Officer how these people had obtained their Malaysian passports. He gave me a guilty smile. He also organised for an officer to help clear the line at the “autogate”.
On leaving, I asked the Customs Officer the same question and his response was “Ini Biasa”."
Looks like these newly minted Bumis do not even need to land here first to 'apply' for citizenship. And unlike what one good old doc proclaimed, there's also no need to dress, speak melayu to qualify to be malay. All just in time for that critical GE13.Truly malaysia boleh.
I support PR but still think Anwar is a true blue Umnonite and will never and cannot change.....too deep seated to change. Not easy to change human nature. The umno psyche is too deeprooted and ingrained right into his soul. But at least he had the wily tongue and cunning brain to twist and turn and could even the charm the bird down from the tree and have the gullible eats out of his hand.
ReplyDeleteAt this late stage, we have no choice but to accept, however unwillingly, to have him, flawed as he is, to lead PR and bury Umno for good.
And I am not confused at all. Clear as day he is Umno right to the core and his leopard spot cannot change. Same like PAS cannot change. So let's have the unknown devil than the devil we've known for too long ?
Let's give this new devil a try. But my bet is that BN will retain the rule come GE13 and the most we could hope for is to continue deny the old devil the two thirds majority and continue to be a thorn in their flesh.
No matter what DSAI may b it is clear as day to me he is a 1000 times better alternative today than UMMO.
ReplyDeletePlus DAP and PAS will b far better coalition partner and check and balance system than the blardi dictator that UMNO is currently.
Sunwayopal
in an election more than two decades ago, DAP used the slogan "TRY 5 YEARS" for Penang.
ReplyDeleteBN responded with "DIE 5 YEARS". Of course, BN retained the election.
That was way before the political landscape changed.
No need to crack your head over the maths, KT.
ReplyDeleteOnly 1 seat in Sarawak and two in Sabah. That's the only win for Pakatan there.
In Malaya, lost Selangor and Kedah. Only victory in Penang with reduced two seats. PAS will win Kelantan.
I know why Buttercup 1:13 PM is so confident of BN's outlook -
ReplyDeleteread Anon 12:09 AM's post above.
Clinging on to power on the back of Pakis , Indons and Suluks.
Buat malu saja.