The wretched China-Taiwan question pops up from time to time, with the latest being a secret message from the Taiwanese leader, President Chen Shui Bian to his mainland counterpart Hu Jintao. This alleged secret meesage follows almost immediately the recent visit to Beijing by Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang Party deputy leader Chiang Pin Kung.
However, James Soong leader of Taiwan's second opposition party the PFP, who will be making the trip to Beijing denied that he was Chen's special envoy carrying any secret missive to Hu Jintao. But what is clear from Soong is that Chen has now agreed to maintain the status quo in Taiwan, and not push for the island's formal independence. This would appear to be good news for the stability of the region.
For years until Chen became President, the two ‘Chinas’ have agreed that there is only ‘One China’, a policy to which the world, including the USA, subscribes.
Unlike previous Taiwanese leaders, Chen considers himself Taiwanese, one without any emotional attachment to the ‘Mother’ (main) land. He is also realistic enough to know that the Taiwanese side won’t have a snowflake’s chance in hell of repossessing mainland China. If any repossessing is to take place, Taiwan will be on the losing side.
He is also chafing at the reins the ‘One China’ policy has in practice restricted Taiwan’s place in the global community – for example, Taiwan is not a member of international organisations and agencies that mainland China is. He wants Taiwan to break free as an independent nation so that she may enjoy what has been denied to her for so long. But the USA support is vital.
Chen assessed that under US President Bush and his neo-con dominated Administration, he has the best possible chance to achieve this political intention. So he has been pushing provocations to the limit by uttering the taboo word – secession euphemised as independence – and attempting to hold referendums to decide on the issue.
The aim has been to draw the USA into the fray, military or otherwise, so that Taiwan could possibly get away with it when the opportunity arises. Chen is banking on the support of American neo-cons and Christian Right, who consider China as Big Satan, to lobby President Bush. But the USA is extremely wary of getting into a second war with China, this time a nuclear power, especially when there is a pro-China lobby in the shape of American big businesses. The USA has warned Taiwan that America will not intervene in any Chinese attack if the Island initiates the provocation. Perhaps this may explain in part Chen's (temporary?) retreat from his regular calls for Taiwan's independence.
China has of course employed the usual threats, verbal as well as holding war games next to the Island, against such a move, and even passing a law recently to legitimise her recovery of the Island should the Taiwanese have the impunity to secede unilaterally.
I think China is more worried of the precedent a breakaway Taiwan will have on provinces such as Tibet and her north-west regions, and believe she will eventually let Taiwan go her way, as observed in her recent softening stand in agreeing to Taiwan joining the World Health Organisation. She knows that the reunion of Taiwan with China is realistically unlikely. She wants to consolidate her control on the ‘difficult’ regions before she relinquishes the Taiwanese claim forever.
When? Full independence seems unlikely in the next 10 years, but we may expect a gradual loosening of the political strings that will allow Taiwan to participate more and more in international forums as a recognised political entity.
But then, I wouldn't put it past Chen to pull a mischievous one during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, to catch China in the difficult and diplomatically most vulnerable position. Will China be willing to sacrifice even the prestigious Games to go on the warpath against a seceding Taiwan.
My bet is yes - prestige or no prestige, Beijing will, as the stakes for her (of not threatening or even militarily harrassing a seceding Taiwan) will then be far higher than the benefits and halo effect of the Games.
Taiwan is already existing as an independent state.
ReplyDeleteOnly the Communists think differently.
Taiwan should be allowed to become independent.
China has no balls to retake Taiwan.
If they have the balls, they should launch an attack now, why wait(for Taiwan to verbally proclaim themselves independent)!?
Launching an attack against Taiwan would only cause the collapse of the communist rule as no democratic state in today's world would accept such agression & the US would not sit idly by.Not to mention the subsequent collapse of the Chinese economy due to such a "mistake" (as Communist would like to name their blunders).
Brother PK said:
ReplyDelete"Taiwan is already existing as an independent state. Only the Communists think differently."
You're incorrect, and the international community, even the USA, says so.
"Taiwan should be allowed to become independent."
Agreed, but for the reasons I posted, it's not going to happen tomorrow.
"China has no balls to retake Taiwan.
If they have the balls, they should launch an attack now, why wait(for Taiwan to verbally proclaim themselves independent)!?
Launching an attack against Taiwan would only cause the collapse of the communist rule as no democratic state in today's world would accept such agression & the US would not sit idly by.Not to mention the subsequent collapse of the Chinese economy due to such a "mistake" (as Communist would like to name their blunders)."
You answered your own question, though not exactly as what would happen.
For a start there is no Communist rule, only a capitalist dictatorship, like most Asian and African countries, though China is doing better than most.
You're also mistakenly naive by saying no democratic country would accept a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. After a decent period of sandiwara (hypocritical play acting) those countries, including and especially the USA, will deal with China again. That's the shocking reality of international politics. There's no permanent enemies, only permanent national interests - eg. look at the USA and Vietnam today, once mortal enemies, but now both wanting to come closer together, the former because of its strategy of encircling China, the latter because of trade and aid (and possibly China)
The reasons why China hasn't invaded Taiwan are many: (1) it currently lacks the capability to invade (which is different from attack), so it will only harrass, like launching massive missile attacks or cutting off sea and air links to Taiwan (mind you, it is steadily enhancing its military capability to be able to do just that, an invasion); (2) it prefers the present status quo, Taiwan de jure a renegade province of China and effectively cut off from the diplomatic world (a cheaper option that real gungho attack and invasion); (3) it wants to continue its current economic boom and international trade (4) and, my personal belief, it doesn't really want Taiwan back, other than to show the other troubled provinces and regions that it will not tolerate any secession ideas.
And, sorry to disillusion you, the USA will assuredly sit idly by. Don't be mistaken about US motives - as an Administration (not its people such as the Christian Right or pro-Taiwan lobbies) they aren't in the least interested in democracy and silly ideas like that - they are only interested in American interest.
What interest is there for the USA to risk American lives to protect Taiwan in the likely possibility of an allout war with China. China may not have as many weapons as the USA but with N-devices especially MIRV-ed ICBMs, there could be at least some 400 Chinese warheads raining on the western coast of the USA mainland - just assume only 25% of these get through onto target. Is it then worthwhile for a USA to engage China in WWIII for the sake of a Chinese island off the coast of China? Will the USA be prepared to sacrifice California (on its own, 6th largest economy in the world), Washington State and its aero-industry, Oregon and its wheat fields, etc? The USA as a nation will never ever recover, even if it destroy the entire Chinese nation - in fact, it will spell the end of the entity known as the USA. The world will also go into traumatic shock and probably suffer if not collapse. The Americans will think twice of Armaggedon, the Chinese won't.
Of course there will be the usual condemnation and outrage, supported insurgencies, etc etc as had happened in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan and many places where the once-USSR marched in, but no visible USA direct defence of such invaded countries. After a decent while, it'll be back to business as usual.
We all understand why countries like Iran & North Korea would want to acquire nuclear weapons.
ReplyDeleteTaiwan should acquire such weapons (if they don't have them yet)as a deterrent against the communists.
Taiwan should go for independence.
I agree with you and support Taiwan's independence but not the way Chen has been trying to do it, by deliberate provocation with the hope of drawing the USA in.
ReplyDeleteChen should stop trying to confront and tease China, Instead engage China in dialogue, and arrange some accommodation without losing anything. Bit by bit, dilute the ties in an amiable way without making Beijing lose face, until eventually it becomes a new nation - that will happen once China allows/doesn't object to its membership in a number of international organisations.
The KMT would be the better party to achieve this, for the only reason Beijing thinks the KMT still believes in a 'One China' policy.
I don't agree however that Taiwan ought to have the N-bomb as that will only heighten the tension and encourage Chen to act rashly.
And you're absolutely right that Iran, N Korea, and indeed India, Paki all want the N-stuff. Extra muscles - even big, strong and unfriendly USA (or Russia or China) will think twice before bullying.
South Africa is the ONLY country that had the N-bomb but gave it up under Mandala. (Libya doesn't count as it hasn't reached the stage fo possessing the bomb)