Defense Minister Gallant Tells Netanyahu: Israel Is Conducting War Without a Compass, Needs New War Goals

Defense Minister Gallant Tells Netanyahu: Israel Is Conducting War Without a Compass, Needs New War Goals


Defense Minister Yoav Gallant sent a letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of the security cabinet, stating that "the war is being conducted without a compass" and that its objectives need to be updated.

The letter was sent shortly before the attack on Iran overnight into Saturday, and its content was first reported by Channel 13 News. The letter was also sent to Shin Bet director Ronen Bar, Mossad chief David Barnea, IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi and cabinet ministers.

In the letter, Gallant wrote that "the current situation in which we operate without a valid compass and without updated war goals harms the management of the campaign and the cabinet's decisions. Significant developments in the war, primarily the exchanges of direct blows between Israel and Iran, increase the need for a discussion and an update of the war objectives with a comprehensive view of the arenas and the connections between them."

Gallant proposed four new war goals for the four arenas in which Israel operates: Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, and the West Bank. The objective for Gaza, as suggested in the letter, is "establishing a reality without a military threat, preventing the enhancement of terror capabilities, securing the return of all hostages, and promoting an alternative to Hamas rule." — Haaretz

Our Take: The Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, is at it again.

For the past 18+ months, Gallant and Netanyahu have had this rift, beginning in March 2023 when Gallant attended an anti-Netanyahu protest that materialized in response to Bibi's plans to overhaul the judiciary. (The equivalent of the Democrat's plan in America to stack the Supreme Court.) In response, Netanyahu fired Gallant—only to rehire him the very next day.

The story here is that, just hours before Israel launched its strike against Iran, Gallant released a public letter criticizing Netanyahu's military leadership, stating that it lacked direction. (Not exactly a hot take, considering that's exactly what most of Bibi's critics have been saying since last October.) Nonetheless, it is a strange move, and truly underscores the fractured nature of domestic Israeli politics at the moment—perhaps the most critical moment in the young nation's short history.

It's important to note that Gallant—who is considered the Biden administration's "inside man" in the Netanyahu cabinet—is not criticizing Netanyahu's warmongering. He is simply criticizing the lack of defined objectives, which he essentially proposes in the letter—one for each of the FOUR theaters of war that Israel is now engaged.

It's hard to say exactly what Gallant's endgame is with his decision to publish this letter. Whatever the intent, the most likely outcome, at this point, is that Netanyahu will fire Gallant and replace him. That opportunity presents a real danger for Bibi, because he has so many competing dynamics to consider.

First, let's take a look at the current state of Netanyahu's cabinet:




For quite a while, the speculation has been that Netanyahu will replace Gallant with Gideon Sa'ar, an Israeli politician who has been serving as an observing "minister without portfolio" (meaning no official title) during the current Netanyahu administration, and was just recently elevated to join the new three-member War Cabinet, along with Gallant and Netanyahu.

The previous War Cabinet was dissolved after Benny Gantz resigned back in June. Gantz was also a "minister without portfolio," and like Sa'ar, a political opponent of Netanyahu. However, since even before October 7th, Sa'ar has been a vocal war-hawk, going as far as to say that any entity that attacked Israel should be completely annihilated from existence. That's the kind of rhetoric that is going to get Netanyahu's jimmies rustled, along with the cabal of psychotic zealots who make up the Security Cabinet.

A major dynamic that Bibi should be weighing is the IDF leadership, who have reportedly soured on Netanyahu's lack of strategic objectives. Both Gantz and Gallant—who have actually been political opponents, historically, until finding common ground in criticizing Netanyahu—are retired generals, and seem to speak for the IDF when they voice these sentiments.

It is unclear to me how the IDF would respond to the appointment of Gideon Sa'ar as the new Defense Minister, but what is being widely surmised by a wide spectrum of analysts is that if Netanyahu indulges the religious zealots, and appoints National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir as Defense Minister, he may be facing a potential mutiny from the IDF brass. (In Israel, you are allowed to hold multiple cabinet titles simultaneously. Netanyahu held five titles until he was indicted with corruption charges, and was compelled by Israeli law to resign from all posts except for Prime Minister.)

Ben-Gvir has made it clear that he desires to see every Arab within reach slaughtered. And while that attitude may or may not appeal to the IDF brass, the real problem they will have with him is that he opposes the recent edict that has nullified the conscription exemption that the Orthodox and Hasidic Jews in Israel have enjoyed since the country's founding. The logic is that their service to the Jewish State is through their Talmudic studies, but the IDF is desperate for soldiers, and tens of thousands of Israeli citizens have packed up and left the country—perhaps never to return. That number of ex-pats is growing by the day, as the situation with the various wars continues to deteriorate. And Ben-Gvir doesn't believe that these religious students should be compelled to serve, even though the Israeli Supreme Court has already ruled that they must. (And the IDF brass are demanding their service.)

It seems to me that the worst thing Netanyahu could do right now is to give the religious zealots more power, as continued Israeli aggression will only invoke more rebuke from the rest of the world; but empowering those zealots is also exactly what Netanyahu needs in order to solidify his control over the Israeli government—because as soon as this bender ends, Bibi will face consequences for his actions, both before and after October 7th, from either domestic authorities or the international community.

And for that exact reason, I suspect that he will surround himself with men of "conviction" who are driven by religious fervor, and cannot be deterred by the petty whims of secular forces. Men who will cling to those convictions, even in the face of certain doom.

Do you see how Trump's Gambit is paying off? — GhostofBasedPatrickHenry