Breaking hearts: Can Anwar afford to alienate his base?
RK Anand
Published: Oct 29, 2024 3:50 PM
Pakatan Harapan’s core supporters have no option but to vote for the coalition despite their resentment and disappointment because the alternative is too daunting, allowing Anwar Ibrahim to cross one red line after another.
For political scientist Wong Chin Huat, who is also a founding member of the electoral watchdog Bersih, this is one of two misperceptions about the “liberal and minority” base.
“If the above scenario is true, then Anwar can do anything to keep himself in power, including home detention and subsequently even a full pardon and DAA (discharge amounting to an acquittal) or DNAA (discharge not amounting to an acquittal) on the remaining cases for (former premier) Najib Abdul Razak.
"Unfortunately for the Madani government, the more Anwar looks like the old BN and Perikatan Nasional that drove the liberal/minority voters to back Harapan, the less they would fear the ‘Green Wave’,” he told Malaysiakini.
According to Wong, the supporters would not cast their ballots for PN but rather abandon Harapan and the Madani government, grow cynical, withdraw from political participation and encourage their children to live or move abroad if possible.
Published: Oct 29, 2024 3:50 PM
Pakatan Harapan’s core supporters have no option but to vote for the coalition despite their resentment and disappointment because the alternative is too daunting, allowing Anwar Ibrahim to cross one red line after another.
For political scientist Wong Chin Huat, who is also a founding member of the electoral watchdog Bersih, this is one of two misperceptions about the “liberal and minority” base.
“If the above scenario is true, then Anwar can do anything to keep himself in power, including home detention and subsequently even a full pardon and DAA (discharge amounting to an acquittal) or DNAA (discharge not amounting to an acquittal) on the remaining cases for (former premier) Najib Abdul Razak.
"Unfortunately for the Madani government, the more Anwar looks like the old BN and Perikatan Nasional that drove the liberal/minority voters to back Harapan, the less they would fear the ‘Green Wave’,” he told Malaysiakini.
According to Wong, the supporters would not cast their ballots for PN but rather abandon Harapan and the Madani government, grow cynical, withdraw from political participation and encourage their children to live or move abroad if possible.
Wong Chin Huat
“Anwar’s defenders would tell them that by punishing Madani, they are punishing themselves. To which some would just shrug their shoulders and reply like heartbroken lovers: 'So?'
“In other words, if they feel things are already bad enough, then the idea of the lesser evil loses its meaning,” he added.
‘Scoring an own goal’
Wong predicted that if enough Harapan voters choose not to make a beeline at the polling stations in the next general election, DAP might lose one-third of its seats while PKR and Amanah could be in a deeper quagmire.
He said this would not only result in Harapan being unable to helm the next government, dashing Anwar’s hope for a second term as prime minister but also raise the question of whether the coalition would win sufficient seats to be invited to be part of the next federal administration.
In this context, Wong likened Anwar’s lashing out at critics over his “welcoming” Najib’s expression of regret for the 1MDB scandal to “scoring an own goal”.
“Often voters don't expect politicians to act fully in accordance with public opinion, but they do expect public office holders to at least act as if they listen,” he added.
PM Anwar Ibrahim
Wong pointed out that the second misperception is that DAP can command a large segment of these voters, especially Chinese Malaysians.
He noted that Umno leaders like Nur Jazlan Mohamed blamed DAP for the low Chinese turnout in the Mahkota by-election in Johor despite DAP going all out to campaign for its new political partner.
“But few Chinese feel they owe DAP favours like how many Malays in the past had felt towards Umno, let alone have loyalty to their political leaders like PAS supporters do,” he said.
Wong pointed out that the Sungai Bakap (Penang) and Mahkota by-elections were illustrative of this variable where there was a significant dip in the turnout of Chinese voters.
“This was a sign of silent disaffection towards the Madani government but their votes did not swing to PN,” he added.
Regardless of whether DAP has its own red lines that the government cannot afford to ignore such as not abandoning its promise to uphold justice on 1MDB and strengthen democracy with institutional reforms, Wong said, its voters have their own red lines.
“Looking at the DAP leaders' response to Najib's apology, it appears that DAP recognises the red lines drawn by its base to restrict its room for manoeuvre,” he added.
While Anwar was "magnanimous” due to being the “father of the nation”, DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke, however, chose not to mince words in describing the apology as “meaningless".
“Anwar’s defenders would tell them that by punishing Madani, they are punishing themselves. To which some would just shrug their shoulders and reply like heartbroken lovers: 'So?'
“In other words, if they feel things are already bad enough, then the idea of the lesser evil loses its meaning,” he added.
‘Scoring an own goal’
Wong predicted that if enough Harapan voters choose not to make a beeline at the polling stations in the next general election, DAP might lose one-third of its seats while PKR and Amanah could be in a deeper quagmire.
He said this would not only result in Harapan being unable to helm the next government, dashing Anwar’s hope for a second term as prime minister but also raise the question of whether the coalition would win sufficient seats to be invited to be part of the next federal administration.
In this context, Wong likened Anwar’s lashing out at critics over his “welcoming” Najib’s expression of regret for the 1MDB scandal to “scoring an own goal”.
“Often voters don't expect politicians to act fully in accordance with public opinion, but they do expect public office holders to at least act as if they listen,” he added.
PM Anwar Ibrahim
Wong pointed out that the second misperception is that DAP can command a large segment of these voters, especially Chinese Malaysians.
He noted that Umno leaders like Nur Jazlan Mohamed blamed DAP for the low Chinese turnout in the Mahkota by-election in Johor despite DAP going all out to campaign for its new political partner.
“But few Chinese feel they owe DAP favours like how many Malays in the past had felt towards Umno, let alone have loyalty to their political leaders like PAS supporters do,” he said.
Wong pointed out that the Sungai Bakap (Penang) and Mahkota by-elections were illustrative of this variable where there was a significant dip in the turnout of Chinese voters.
“This was a sign of silent disaffection towards the Madani government but their votes did not swing to PN,” he added.
Regardless of whether DAP has its own red lines that the government cannot afford to ignore such as not abandoning its promise to uphold justice on 1MDB and strengthen democracy with institutional reforms, Wong said, its voters have their own red lines.
“Looking at the DAP leaders' response to Najib's apology, it appears that DAP recognises the red lines drawn by its base to restrict its room for manoeuvre,” he added.
While Anwar was "magnanimous” due to being the “father of the nation”, DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke, however, chose not to mince words in describing the apology as “meaningless".
DAP sec-gen Anthony Loke
This is not the first time Wong has raised the alarm.
Prior to the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election (Selangor) in May, he said the government's inaction on three instances of petrol bombing on the KK Mart outlets amidst the boycott campaign by Umno Youth chief Dr Muhammad Akmal Saleh made the “Green Wave” appear less frightening.
At the time when many Chinese voters were considering abstention, PAS Youth chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari hit the reset button when he honed in on the DAP candidate’s vernacular education background.
Similarly, now as Anwar continues to break hearts and leave Harapan supporters wondering if the upcoming House Arrest Bill would allow Najib to vacate his prison cell, Perak PAS commissioner Razman Zakaria has reminded them of the prospects of a more ethnically divided nation using race and religion as the dividers.
"The question is - how many times will PAS come to Anwar and Madani's rescue?" Wong asked.
This is not the first time Wong has raised the alarm.
Prior to the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election (Selangor) in May, he said the government's inaction on three instances of petrol bombing on the KK Mart outlets amidst the boycott campaign by Umno Youth chief Dr Muhammad Akmal Saleh made the “Green Wave” appear less frightening.
At the time when many Chinese voters were considering abstention, PAS Youth chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari hit the reset button when he honed in on the DAP candidate’s vernacular education background.
Similarly, now as Anwar continues to break hearts and leave Harapan supporters wondering if the upcoming House Arrest Bill would allow Najib to vacate his prison cell, Perak PAS commissioner Razman Zakaria has reminded them of the prospects of a more ethnically divided nation using race and religion as the dividers.
"The question is - how many times will PAS come to Anwar and Madani's rescue?" Wong asked.
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