Dennis Ignatius
~ Provoking discussion, dissent & debate on politics, diplomacy, human rights & civil society.
South China Sea: The Limits of Quiet Diplomacy
21SaturdaySep 2024
[1] Kishore Mahbubani – Singapore’s widely respected diplomat and scholar – recently lauded Malaysia’s quiet diplomacy in dealing with China’s maritime claims. “A big lesson I’ve learnt in diplomacy is that public diplomacy with a megaphone is unsuccessful. Private diplomacy, where you talk face-to-face privately and off the record, is very successful,” he was reported to have said.[1]
[2] Few will disagree that quiet diplomacy is always the sensible way of dealing with issues what more with a country like China, the region’s indispensable economic partner. Good relations with China are vital not just for regional prosperity but for regional stability as well.
[3] But on the issue of China’s maritime claims, quiet diplomacy in itself is proving to be inadequate. For decades, Malaysia along with its ASEAN partners has been quietly engaging China on its claims to almost all of the South China Sea; the results have not been encouraging.
[4] Negotiations just to establish a ‘Code of Conduct’, for example, have dragged on and on. China has used every trick in the book – as well as its proxies within ASEAN – to stall meaningful progress. Last year, after decades of discussions and countless meetings, agreement was reached to come up with “Guidelines for Accelerating the Early Conclusion of an Effective and Substantive COC.”[2] Two decades just to agree to further negotiations on how best to proceed with negotiations!
[5] Whenever countries like Malaysia raise the issue with China, Beijing is always quick to reassure everyone that “although China had staked its claims it will not be aggressive… and that China would continue to negotiate and seek an amicable resolution to the issue”.[3] But in the light of China’s actions in the South China Sea, can Southeast Asian nations really put much faith in such assurances?
[6] China’s response to the Philippines should provide a reality check. Under President Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022), Manila bent over backwards to appease China in the hope that such a policy would help safeguard its territorial integrity. Duterte even downplayed the ruling of the Hague Tribunal on China’s nine-dash line – which was found to be without legal basis[4] – in the interests of maintaining good relations with Beijing.
[7] It turned out to be a huge strategic blunder; the Philippines lost yet more ground to China and is now hard-pressed to defend its EEZ against the might of the PRC navy and coast guard. Many point accusing fingers at President Ferdinand Marcos Jr for contributing to rising tensions in the South China Sea by expanding defence cooperation with the US but who can blame Marcos for looking for alternatives to protect his country’s territorial integrity?
[8] Even Malaysia, for all its years of quiet diplomacy with China – which Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim recently described as “a true friend” – has not much to show for it. Though Putrajaya goes out of its way to play it down, China is aggressively pressing its claims around Luconia Shoals located 100 km from Sarawak and almost 2000 km from mainland China. Indeed, China has an almost permanent naval presence in the area, frequently harassing our fishermen, intimidating our oil exploration vessels and carrying out surveys of its own. If the full scale of China’s activities in our maritime space are made known, there would undoubtedly be an uproar in the country.
[9] China recently upped the ante by sending a strongly worded note warning Malaysia not to trespass around the Luconia Shoals area and to desist from carrying out oil exploration and other activities there.[5] Will China directly confront Malaysian vessels in the area next?
[10] The fact is we have a growing problem with China over its maritime claims. It should be clear by now that China considers the whole of the South China Sea an integral part of China itself, an area vital to its national security and national survival. As President Xi Jinping asserted in 2014, China must place the “highest priority on building an impregnable wall for border and ocean defence”.[6] The goal, as it relates to the South China Sea, is to exercise complete dominion over the area. If this is a wrong reading of China’s intentions, Beijing ought to deny it publicly and in no uncertain terms.
[11] It should also be apparent by now that China has really no interest in any kind of framework agreement that would hamstring its efforts to exert full control over the entire South China Sea. The quiet diplomacy that China encourages ASEAN nations to engage in on the issue must be seen for what it is – a strategy to keep ASEAN preoccupied with negotiations while it actively and aggressively seeks to change the situation on the ground.
[12] Over the last two decades – even as it engaged ASEAN in quiet diplomacy – China poured billions into militarising the islands and shoals in the South China Sea, building a powerful coast guard and weaponizing its fishing fleet to undergird its claims. Today, the Chinese Coast Guard – described as a navy with a different paint job – is the largest in the world and is certainly bigger than most regional navies. Though ASEAN capitals are loathe to admit it, all that now stands in the way of China’s regional ambitions is the US Pacific Fleet.
[13] In the light of this, Malaysia and its neighbours would be naive to simply put their trust in quiet diplomacy, as important as it is. Other options must be explored if we are to safeguard our territorial integrity and sovereignty. This is not to say that we should seek confrontation with China; rather it’s about seeking insurance to minimise the threat that China poses.
[14] Our options are limited to be sure. The United States – convulsed by growing internal divisions, subject to constant policy shifts and consumed with an America-first mindset – makes for an uncertain strategic partner. Japan, Korea and Australia, acting on their own or collectively through AUKUS don’t inspire much confidence either. Nevertheless, stepping up defence cooperation with these countries is a strategic necessity. ASEAN itself needs to do a better job in engaging China instead of allowing China to play the divide-and-conquer game.
[15] Of course, ASEAN leaders have no wish to see US-China tensions rise further. Indeed, there is very little support within the region for the US policy of ‘containment’, ‘encirclement’ and ‘suppression’ of China, as President Xi Jinping aptly described it. [7] It is provocative, destabilizing and futile. But it is also true that China’s territorial ambitions are adding fuel to the fire and providing opportunities for outside powers to be involved. The best thing that China can do to reduce the role of outside powers in the region is to quickly find an amicable solution to its maritime disputes.
[16] The ball is very much in Beijing’s court. ASEAN nations want nothing but good and mutually beneficial relations with China. They respect China’s security concerns and certainly have no interest in joining any anti-China bandwagon, but for so long as China continues to aggressively pursue its regional ambitions, it shouldn’t be surprised if ASEAN sees the need for a counterweight, quiet diplomacy notwithstanding.
[Dennis Ignatius |Kuala Lumpur |21 September 2024]
[1] Quiet diplomacy key to resolving South China Sea dispute, says diplomat |FMT |19 Sept 2024
[2] ASEAN-China Agree on Guidelines to Accelerate Negotiations for the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea |ASEAN Indonesia | 13 July. 2023
[3] Malaysia assured of no possible Chinese aggression in South China Sea: PM |The Vibes |24 Sept 2023
[4] China’s ‘nine-dash line’ claims don’t hold water, tribunal rules |Nikkei Asia | 13 July 2016
[5] China warns Malaysia to immediately cease activities in oil-rich waters off Sarawak, says report |Malaysia Now |3 September 2024
[6] Xi Jinping’s Address to the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs | 28-29 Nov 2014
[7] China’s Leader, With Rare Bluntness, Blames U.S. Containment for Troubles |NYT |07 March 2023
If the other party is like a playground bully who keeps demanding more and more, Quiet diplomacy is an invitation to being bullied and ultimately losing all your agency.
ReplyDeleteIn this end you just become a client state.