PH should not blame Johor loss on multi-cornered fights, says analyst
Multi-cornered fights are more detrimental to Perikatan Nasional and Barisan Nasional, says analyst Azmil Tayeb.
PETALING JAYA: A political scientist has disputed a Pakatan Harapan (PH) claim that its defeat in the recent Johor polls can be attributed to multi-cornered fights.
“The coalition’s real problems are internal squabbles, low voter turnout and ineffective messaging,” said Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia.
PH’s presidential council recently said the polls showed that multi-cornered fights involving opposition parties only served to split votes and made it increasingly difficult to take on Barisan Nasional (BN).
Azmil told FMT he believed the Johor results would not have been different if the opposition parties had not contested for the same seats.
PETALING JAYA: A political scientist has disputed a Pakatan Harapan (PH) claim that its defeat in the recent Johor polls can be attributed to multi-cornered fights.
“The coalition’s real problems are internal squabbles, low voter turnout and ineffective messaging,” said Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia.
PH’s presidential council recently said the polls showed that multi-cornered fights involving opposition parties only served to split votes and made it increasingly difficult to take on Barisan Nasional (BN).
Azmil told FMT he believed the Johor results would not have been different if the opposition parties had not contested for the same seats.
Azmil Tayeb.
“Multi-cornered fights are more detrimental to Perikatan Nasional (PN) and BN than PH since the Malay-Islamic parties are vying for the same Malay-Muslim votes,” he said.
BN clinched 40 of the 56 state assembly seats in the March 12 polls. PH saw its seats reduced from 27 to 12. PN won three seats and Muda one.
In its March 16 statement, the PH presidential council also said opposition parties “should not contest in PH areas” at the 15th general election (GE15) as it would affect votes that would otherwise likely go to the coalition.
However, a check with the Election Commission’s website found that the total number of votes obtained by opposition parties in 10 of the constituencies that PH won in GE14 would not be enough to beat BN in the Johor polls.
The seats are Bekok, Paloh, Pekan Nanas, Kemelah, Serom, Mahkota, Bukit Naning, Semerah, Tiram and Pemanis.
In Larkin, which saw Muda, PKR and Pejuang in the fray, the three parties got a total of 12,206 votes against BN’s 16,053.
In Permas, where PH, Pejuang and Warisan contested, their total number of votes was 16,969 against BN’s 23,492.
Azmil said that PH, if it aimed to garner more votes in GE15, should show a unified front with clear and concrete messaging on relevant issues.
“Multi-cornered fights are more detrimental to Perikatan Nasional (PN) and BN than PH since the Malay-Islamic parties are vying for the same Malay-Muslim votes,” he said.
BN clinched 40 of the 56 state assembly seats in the March 12 polls. PH saw its seats reduced from 27 to 12. PN won three seats and Muda one.
In its March 16 statement, the PH presidential council also said opposition parties “should not contest in PH areas” at the 15th general election (GE15) as it would affect votes that would otherwise likely go to the coalition.
However, a check with the Election Commission’s website found that the total number of votes obtained by opposition parties in 10 of the constituencies that PH won in GE14 would not be enough to beat BN in the Johor polls.
The seats are Bekok, Paloh, Pekan Nanas, Kemelah, Serom, Mahkota, Bukit Naning, Semerah, Tiram and Pemanis.
In Larkin, which saw Muda, PKR and Pejuang in the fray, the three parties got a total of 12,206 votes against BN’s 16,053.
In Permas, where PH, Pejuang and Warisan contested, their total number of votes was 16,969 against BN’s 23,492.
Azmil said that PH, if it aimed to garner more votes in GE15, should show a unified front with clear and concrete messaging on relevant issues.
Oh Ei Sun.
“It should focus on issues that are relevant to people nowadays such as jobs, education and the high cost of living as opposed to harping on kleptocracy and taking back the mandate,” he said.
Another analyst, Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said PH would have to enter into negotiations with opposition parties if it wanted to prevent multi-cornered fights in GE15.
“In the best case scenario, they would present a united front against BN,” he said.
“But inter-party bickering, especially as to who is to lead the coalition, is likely to prevent that from happening in the near future.”
“It should focus on issues that are relevant to people nowadays such as jobs, education and the high cost of living as opposed to harping on kleptocracy and taking back the mandate,” he said.
Another analyst, Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said PH would have to enter into negotiations with opposition parties if it wanted to prevent multi-cornered fights in GE15.
“In the best case scenario, they would present a united front against BN,” he said.
“But inter-party bickering, especially as to who is to lead the coalition, is likely to prevent that from happening in the near future.”
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