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Wednesday, May 05, 2021

Why a US foreign policy aimed at obstructing China won’t succeed

SCMP:

Why a US foreign policy aimed at obstructing China won’t succeed

by 
Tom Plate

  • India, grappling with a coronavirus resurgence, will not be pushed to take the US side against China

  • Washington’s move towards a cold war with Beijing, amid frosty relations with Moscow, will only drive the two nuclear powers closer
Illustration: Craig Stephens

Marvellously, sharp streaks of sunshine are
starting to break through America’s Covid-19 cloud cover, but the fog over US foreign policy seems heavy. It involves India, China and Russia.

Let’s start with India and employ the British poet W.H. Auden’s words – “the gates of hell are always standing wide open”. But, in India’s case, you have to fear that this South Asian giant, with its endless problems, looks more like a revolving door, perhaps with no way out.

Sectors of the Indian population are trapped instead in a kind of hell on Earth. Every day, hundreds of thousands become victims of the pandemic. The Modi government is in denial, as was Donald Trump’s.

Recall that India has been designated in the minds of US policymakers and grand theorists as the historic geopolitical counterweight to big, bad China on the west bank of Asia. But, since independence in 1947, India has seen itself as somehow above grimy
side-taking geopolitics.

Even today, it seems in little mood to play the role of new deputy sheriff to replace ever-loyal Australia, which always had a lot more bark than actual bite to offer anyway.

As many on the US East Coast still imagine that Washington remains the centre of the geopolitical universe, it cannot understand why others don’t think this way and don’t want to join in the new global gutter fight of anti-China geopolitics. Such a diplomatic passage for India, from its stance of non-alignment, would be a very tough transformation.

The usual paradigms of international power politics need to be retired to the dustiest corner room of the British Library. After all, Beijing has accepted snatches of capitalism to power its growth, as long as the capitalists do not try to rule over the Communist Party; and Washington, under an amazingly determined new president, is now using – with unabashed relish – invasive tools of state intervention in the economy to

So, I don’t think the US understands the new China, or the new India. When you are so self-centred, you become overly self-confident, and you wind up looking old-fashioned.

Declaring a cold war against a government with which you so often publicly disagree not only makes you disagreeable to that government but also to that other part of the world that sees things in the multiplicity of nuances, as opposed to the binary of kindergarten right and wrong.

No doubt China’s treatment and confinement of Uygurs in its far west will merit from history no humanitarian awards, but neither will the Modi government’s racism towards its Muslims. And, blithely enough, Washington proclaims that one country’s policies are evil and the other country’s are … well, it’s a democracy, right?

The argument that Beijing’s Uygur policy
amounts to genocide strikes me as more propagandistic in intent than objective in purpose
.

In a recent essay in the invaluable Times Literary Supplement in London, the human-rights journalist Caroline Moorehead insists that distinctions in political labelling must be carefully differentiated if they are to have any meaning worth following.

To illustrate, she contrasts and compares the policies of Mussolini to those of other big despots invariably mentioned in the same breath: “[H]is colonial wars were no more brutal than those of the other European countries who preceded him and whose own brutalities are too often forgiven.

“Such comparisons may sound invidious, but the casualties of Mussolini’s reign – about one million totally unpardonable premature deaths – are not in the same league as Mao’s 45-75 million, Stalin’s 40-60 million or Hitler’s 17-20 million.” The word “fascist” is used today “too often and too loosely”, she said.

So is the term “Communist totalitarianism”, thrown around like one-size-fits-all; but perhaps it fits none, in reality. Russia is neither totalitarian nor communist right now; what it is, though, is a mess – and a dangerous one.

Yet Washington is waging a cold war against both
Moscow and Beijing. What a brilliant strategy: get two formidable nuclear powers to unite against you, instead of trying to divide them against each other. But not to worry, the US will get India to pitch in on its side.

Consensual hallucination – as in “boss think” and groupthink – perhaps best describes the thinking now. Things are either evil or not. Nations are either
bad or good. The clear-sighted Winston Churchill once cut a deal with Joseph Stalin. Having Russia move closer to China today is no sign of a policy triumph; maybe a choice needs to be made, sooner rather than later.

Perhaps all the wolf-warrior watchers of the West should lend their ears elsewhere and listen to Tchaikovsky’s Marche Slave and hope that my hunch that the People’s Republic will not tear across
Taiwan is right. I think the leaders of China are too smart for that.


Clinical Professor Tom Plate is Loyola Marymount University‘s Distinguished Scholar of Asian and Pacific Affairs and the Pacific Century Institute’s vice-president



18 comments:

  1. DaGe's Grand Foreign Policy is Belt You Down My Road....aka BULLY, TIPU, RAMPAS....

    Land of Free and Easy Jr now realise they kena TIPU-ED, now want to gostan earlier decisions by Victoria and Northern Territory gomens.

    QUOTE
    Australia cancels Belt and Road deals; China warns of further damage to ties
    APR 22, 2021

    SYDNEY (REUTERS, BLOOMBERG) – Australia on Wednesday (April 21) cancelled two deals struck by its state of Victoria with China on Beijing’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative, prompting the Chinese embassy in Canberra to warn that already tense bilateral ties were bound to worsen....

    ...Under a new process in Australia, Foreign Minister Marise Payne has the power to review deals reached with other nations by the country’s states and universities.

    Payne said she had decided to cancel four deals, including two that Victoria agreed with China, in 2018 and 2019, on cooperation with the Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature trade and infrastructure scheme.

    “I consider these four arrangements to be inconsistent with Australia’s foreign policy or adverse to our foreign relations,” she said in a statement....

    ....The bans are the first under laws passed by the national Parliament in December that give the foreign minister the ability to stop new and previously signed agreements between overseas governments and Australia’s eight states and territories, and also with bodies such as local authorities and universities.

    Payne’s announcement, which included bans on two other deals between Victoria and the governments of Iran and Syria, came the same day a Chinese diplomat indicated that there will be no immediate thaw in ties between Beijing and Canberra.
    UNQUOTE

    QUOTE
    China-Australia relations: ripping up Chinese firm’s Darwin Port lease could cost Canberra

    Su-Lin Tan
    4 May, 2021

    Australia will review the 99-year lease of Darwin Port by a Chinese firm, on national security grounds.

    An Australian parliamentary inquiry’s call last month for the government to consider revoking the 99-year lease to Landbridge Group has gained momentum after Minister for Defence Peter Dutton confirmed to The Sydney Morning Herald on Sunday that his department was looking into whether Landbridge should relinquished....

    ...As Canberra’s concerns over Beijing’s impact on Australia’s national security continue to mount, former prime minister Kevin Rudd also weighed in last week, saying Canberra should conduct a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether the lease to Landbridge was justified.
    UNQUOTE

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. everyone knows that Oz's DaGe is Washington - and DaGe's wrath must be mollified by licking Washington's balls, meaning go against China even at Oz's own expense

      Delete
    2. The blurred mfer is parading his hp6 China politics amidst the usual c&p thrashes gathered from the cesspool of his!

      Delete
  2. DaGe continues to BULLY BULLY BULLY weak neighbours.....

    QUOTE
    Philippine foreign secretary directs unusually aggressive tweet at Beijing over South China Sea
    MAY 3 2021
    Yen Nee Lee

    Teodoro Locsin Jr., Philippine secretary of foreign affairs, slammed China in a Twitter post as the two countries engage in a war of words over the South China Sea.

    Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Teodoro Locsin Jr. slammed China with decidedly undiplomatic language on Twitter Monday, suggesting the Asian giant “get the f--- out” as the two countries engage in a war of words over the South China Sea.

    Locsin in the tweet accused China of straining its “friendship” with the Philippines. The foreign affairs secretary has been a vocal critic of China in the administration of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who sought closer ties with Beijing after taking office in 2016.

    In response to criticism of his rhetoric made by other Twitter users, Locsin said the “usual suave diplomatic speak gets nothing done.”

    The Philippines and China have for years contested overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, a resource-rich waterway with a total area of about 1.4 million square miles where trillions in dollars of global trade pass. Beijing has in the past year appeared more assertive in the disputed waters.

    Locsin’s Monday tweet followed a statement by the Philippine foreign affairs department, which protested the “illegal presence” of Chinese vessels in parts of the South China Sea that are internationally recognized as belonging to the Philippines.

    The statement lashed out at “belligerent actions” by the Chinese coast guard against their Philippine counterparts in the vicinity of Bajo de Masinloc. It said the Chinese had engaged in “shadowing, blocking, dangerous maneuver, and radio challenges” on April 24 to 25.

    It also protested the “incessant, illegal, prolonged, and increasing presence of Chinese finishing vessels and maritime militia vessels in Philippine maritime zones.”

    Beijing last week maintained that it “enjoys sovereignty” over Bajo de Masinloc — which it calls Huangyan Island — and its surrounding waters. It urged the Philippines not to escalate disputes.

    Bajo de Masinloc, also known as Scarborough Shoal, is a chain of reefs in the South China Sea that lies around 120 nautical miles from the nearest Philippine coast and 470 nautical miles from the nearest coast of China
    UNQUOTE

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Teodoro Locsin Jr also gave the F to Malaysia, saying Pinoys own Sabah, wakakaka

      Delete
    2. Using the words of Tom Plate:

      "When you are so self-centred, you become overly self-confident, and you wind up looking old-fashioned.

      Declaring a cold war against a government with which you so often publicly disagree not only makes you disagreeable to that government but also to that other part of the world that sees things in the multiplicity of nuances, as opposed to the binary of kindergarten right and wrong."

      That's exactly what the pinoy is doing!

      & a blurred mfer, as usual, dances to the tune bcoz the rant suits his f*cked thinking of kindergarten.

      If distance from the point of administration, mfer looks no further than WHY should Sabah/Sarawak r part of the m'sia, via a big fat promise lie!

      Delete
    3. use ccp logic, philippines did own sabah.

      Delete
    4. Extended it further, Brunei used to own all the Kalimantan & Philippines islands!

      What takes of yr f*cked logic,  犬养mfer?

      Delete
    5. Why stop there, extend this logic even further DaGe Bullyland is owned by Mongolia because of Genghiz Khan.

      Delete
    6. Wakakakaka…

      Indeed the logic has been extended.

      Yet a blurred mfer, still couldn't fathom the logic!

      Brunei empire has long disappeared with a tiny & insignificant runtish remain.

      Yuan dynasty has come & gone. & in its place the new China is galloping full stream ahead to yr frustrated cries!

      So, what takes of yr f*cked logic, blurred mfer?

      Another inconsequential c&p trash?

      Delete
  3. Tom Plate back in 2012 listed Mahathir as one of the Leadership Giants of Asia.

    Very revealing- the guy is an admirer of the apparent orderliness and efficiency of authoritarian rule, as superior to the messy weakness and disagreements of democracy.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Both USA and China need to be realistic of the situation in Asia.

    USA needs to understand it no longer calls all the shots in Asia.
    In fact it never did. Throughout the 1950s- 1980s, much of Asia steered a path in between USA and USSR.

    For the 2020's , you may swap USSR's role with China.

    On the other hand, with a few exceptions, Asian countries have no wish to be beholden to China.

    So trying push the Americans out of East Asia IS not going to work.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. After all the Yankee Doodle's pom & fanfare, none of u still see the logic of blackgoating China as the potential 800lb gorillas priming for its turf!

      All the "BULLY, TIPU, RAMPAS...." chants about the policies of China r exactly what they r - induced fears by the meme-ed US demoNcratic one-upmanship.

      & all these Yankee asslickers r sleeping wholesome into that psychotic nightmare!

      Never realise that when they have wakening up the next day, the sun is till shining & China is still where she is - w/o the changes they fear most!

      Delete
  5. ccp including officers n zombies nonstop redicule n mocking indian death in recent wuhanvirus surge reveal the unsympathetic n cold hearted nature of those beast grow up under ccp education n influence, thats also y we read some blog that keep criticise n insult the south asian as a way to inflate their own inferiority complex living in a whites society, pity this heartless n insensitive animal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 犬养mfer, is going all out to lie & blame China for the self inflicted misfortune of India!

      Mfer, despite India's remotes, China still sending urgent needed oxygen & medical supplies to India on the double!

      Whereas, all the others, especially yr uncle Sam, r still scoring points by fartings. Just like u!

      There r many heartless & insensitive animals. Least of all, is this particular sored katak - fabricating lies after lies to propagate its evil intention.

      Delete
  6. Even the most “politically correct” NZ is buckling under pressure from DaGe over Uighur human rights...so after saying sorry to its native Maoris the Kiwis are softening on Uighurs...?

    QUOTE
    Five Eyes: Is the alliance in trouble over China?
    By Frank Gardner
    BBC security correspondent
    4 May 2021

    The Five Eyes group has successfully shared intelligence between Western powers but now
    Four of the members have jointly condemned China's treatment of its Uyghur population in Xinjiang province. They have also expressed concern over China's de facto military takeover of the South China Sea, its suppression of democracy in Hong Kong and its threatening moves towards Taiwan, which China has vowed to "take back" by 2049. One country, though, has opted out of confronting China: New Zealand. Surprisingly, perhaps, for a nation that prides itself on respect for human rights, New Zealand's Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta declined to join in this Western condemnation of Beijing, saying "it felt uncomfortable" with expanding the alliance's role by putting pressure on China in this way. Although New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern admitted on Monday that its differences with China are becoming "harder to reconcile", the country still prefers to pursue its own bilateral relations with China.

    China's state media has made much of this, talking of a wedge been driven between the two neighbours and allies, Australia and New Zealand.

    China is New Zealand's largest export market; New Zealand depends on China for close to 30% of its exports, mostly dairy products. So does Australia, but the two Antipodean neighbours clearly view China's policies in a very different light.
    Australia's federal government in Canberra has vetoed a major Chinese investment in the state of Victoria which was to be part of Beijing's "Belt and Road" initiative, its growing acquisition of economic assets around the world. Meanwhile, China has imposed a series of damaging trade sanctions on Australia over the past year. As the trade war between the two countries worsens, Australia's wine exports to China have reportedly dropped by 96% from the first quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of this year, from A$325m (£181m) to just A$12m (£6.6m). New Zealand, on the other hand, has been rewarded by Beijing with ever-closer trade relations.
    UNQUOTE

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. New Zealand is increasingly suffering from "Don't Spook China" fear.

      New Zealand is an excellent harbinger of how any country with economic ties with CCP will find increasing overt and covert constraints on its policies.

      Delete
    2. Same same with those Yankee handout feeders all over the world!

      The reality of life - don't bite the hands that feed u!

      Delete