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Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Trump may be like Moo-Moo - he won't go when he loses

SBS (Aus):

What happens if Donald Trump refuses to concede the US election?



Donald Trump addresses the crowd in Gastonia, North Carolina, this week. Source: Anadolu/Getty Images

If Donald Trump loses the US election next month, there’s every chance he won’t go quietly. Here’s what could happen if he decides to fight the result




Last month, US President Donald Trump sparked controversy by refusing to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the 3 November election.

At a 24 September White House press conference, Mr Trump was asked directly whether he would yield power if he lost.

“Well we’re going to have to see what happens,” he said. “You know that I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots. And the ballots are a disaster.”

“But people are rioting. Do you commit to making sure there is a peaceful transition of power?” the reporter asked.

“Get rid of the ballots and we’ll have a very peaceful – there won’t be a transfer, frankly - there’ll be a continuation,” Mr Trump said.

Critics took this statement to mean one thing: if the President goes down, he's not leaving without a fight.

What is Trump’s issue with mail-in voting?


Over the past few months, Mr Trump has repeatedly claimed mail-in voting will lead to widespread voter fraud.

The president, who votes by mail himself, told his supporters at a rally that people should test the theory by sending in votes by post and then going to vote in person on election day.

Mail-in voting fraud, in theory, refers to people duplicating their votes, creating fake ballots or voting under a different name altogether. But studies show mail-in voter fraud is extremely rare.

The Brennan Center for Justice, a public policy institute at New York University Law School, has estimated the risk of mail ballot fraud to be between 0.00004 and 0.0009 per cent.

Ellen Weintraub, the commissioner of the US Federal Election Commission, has also said the claim is completely unfounded.

"There is no basis for the conspiracy theory that #VoteByMail will lead to a rigged election," she has been tweeting daily as part of her election countdown.
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has also concluded that it’s a rare occurrence.

“There are two major features of VBM [voting by mail] that raise these concerns. First, the ballot is cast outside the public eye, and thus the opportunities for coercion and voter impersonation are greater,” material on its Election Data and Science Lab website reads.

“Second, the transmission path of ballots is not as secure as traditional in-person ballots. These concerns relate both to ballots being intercepted and ballots being requested without the voter’s permission.

“As with all forms of voter fraud, documented instances of fraud related to mail voting are rare.”

Mail-in voting is now more topical than ever, with people less likely to vote at polling booths amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The US has recorded more than 220,000 deaths and more than eight million cases since the pandemic began.

What could Trump do if he loses the election?

There’s every chance we won’t actually have a winner on 3 November (4 November in Australia & Malaysia).

If Mr Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden are neck-and-neck in a key swing state, the race could take days or even weeks to fully resolve. Mail-in votes take longer to count than in-person voting.

According to Professor Simon Jackman, CEO at The University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre, the election isn’t really over until the winner is inaugurated in January.

"If we're talking about the end, and the end being that Congress has certified the result of the Electoral College … at that point, there's no more cards left to play," he told SBS News. "At that point, that's when the election is really, really over in a constitutional sense. But that's not until January."

In other words, there's plenty of time for legal manoeuvring from when the polls close up until inauguration day.

"Frankly, there's an awful lot of legal manoeuvring happening now, more than we've ever seen in an American election," Professor Jackman said. "And so there's plenty of room now through till the election night for postal ballots to be challenged and for various aspects of the election to be challenged in court."

What will Biden do?

Professor Jackman said the same is true for Mr Biden. “Hillary Clinton was quoted as saying Biden should not yield an inch. And by the same token, if Trump were to win overwhelmingly, I think Biden has a choice to make as well," he said.

"Is there a graceful concession? Or is there a call to arms - both legally and on the streets as well?”




If Joe Biden scrapes a win, Donald Trump's legal team will almost certainly contest the results.

If there’s a clear landslide win for either candidate and it’s clear that a sufficient number of swing states aren’t close, a legal battle is less likely, he said.

“If we’re not in close territory, I think people will put their legal ammunition away and go home and call it a day.”

If the race is looking close though, Professor Jackman said we could see multiple states launching legal challenges at once, with the Supreme Court potentially coming in to settle the matter.

And judging by the polling debacle from the last election, Mr Biden and Mr Trump could be neck-and-neck. 

What do the polls say?

In the lead-up to the 2016 election, Mr Trump’s lead over Mrs Clinton was infamously underestimated across 13 swing states. Mr Trump won eight of those 13 states, with a poll average picking the wrong winner in five.

A large research project by the USSC compiled data from polling averages in all the swing states going back 120 days before the election and compared them to the same data from 2016.

Professor Jackman said the goal was to provide a key point of reference this time around, to get a more accurate reading of how the 2020 vote might go.

Based on that research, the 2020 polls currently point to a Biden win, with him expected to take comfortable leads in key swing states including Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan.

By these projections, Mr Biden should win the election by a comfortable margin, with 334 Electoral College votes to Mr Trump’s 204.

Professor Jackman said Florida, which is among the states that counts its votes on the night of the election, will be perhaps the most important battleground states to watch.

“By mid-afternoon, Australia time, all eyes will be on Florida,” he said. “Because if Trump can’t win Florida, he’s almost certainly not going to win the election. And I think that’ll tell us a lot.”

Under the 2020 projections, corrected by 2016 error, Mr Biden is expected to take Florida.

Could we see riots if Trump loses?

Professor Jackman said it’s quite possible we could see some of Mr Trump’s supporter base taking to the streets in protest if he loses the election. But, he said, a lot of it will depend on how Mr Trump chooses to respond in the immediate aftermath.

“If it’s reasonably clear Trump has lost on election night, it’s whether he does the usual thing that’s associated as being part of a peaceful transition of power, and that’s the concession speech,” he said. “If he does that, it’s likely protests will be diminished.

“If, instead, Trump says 'the result isn’t clear and we suspect widespread fraud', it’s all hands on deck with securing legal challenges.”

The latter may be more likely, judging by how vocal Mr Trump has been on the issue of voter fraud.

He used his first televised election debate with Mr Biden on 30 September to declare the election "rigged".

"This is going to be a fraud like you've never seen," he said.

Earlier this month, Vice President Mike Pence was asked to clarify what he would do if Mr Biden was declared the winner and Mr Trump refused to accept a peaceful transfer of power.

"Well, Susan, first and foremost, I think we’re going to win this election ..." he responded to the moderator at his debate with Mr Biden's running mate Kamala Harris, avoiding the question. 

It left many thinking there is every chance this election fight is going to get messier.


20 comments:

  1. Central to Yiddin’s survival is the passing of the 2021 Budget, which will be presented next week.

    The Twit of a Twat Zafrul, the self-proclaimed “non-political FM” has yet to open book and invite opposition parties like PKR, DAP, AMANAH to help finalize it, otherwise it will be curtains for Yiddin. Guanee is ever ready to help ha ha ha...

    I hear Penang will be asking for 10B to finance the undersea tunnel project, Wee KHAT Siong must restart the expansion of the airport, as well as upgrade the ferry services and also restart that cable car project that was killed.

    ReplyDelete
  2. didnt they said opinion r like asshole, everyone got one?

    ccp not elected by the people is a fact, backdoor pm yet to prove majority is a fact.

    may be like is thus an asshole statement, not that diff with asshole from that half past 5 n stupid twat.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Another pact of katak fart!

      If ccp not been elected by the people, how does it claim power to rule China?

      By defeating kmt?

      By 台毒's lies?

      By yr grace (wakakakakaka… more likely katak cloaking)!

      Delete
    2. thru war, via work closely with foreign tribe like japs n russian, betui a chinese traitor.

      Delete
    3. Yaloh!

      According to katak lies & cloaking urban legends.

      Delete
    4. Chinese traitor?

      Who r u to say?

      There r justified wars

      Like the 中国人民志愿军抗美援朝出国作战 that built the foundation of the doorstep for foreign bullies to rethink their China serfdom dreams.

      Like the liberation war of China from the kmt bandits, warlords to suck the bloods out from the Chinese people.

      Like the war to eliminate poverty within the country from internal efforts & persistency San any foreign helps.

      Mfer, u know nothing about wars BUT those that inflicting uncle Sam's military might onto those helpless countries.

      Delete
    5. russia declassified doc in korea war let the world know ccp lied.

      kmt fight warlords n unified china, resist japs invasion, introduce democracy, ccp did nothing, n work closely with russian to conquer china, thats y hv to ceded so many china territory to repay a foe that keep stealing chinese land.

      taiwan zero poverty, ccp 600 million earn less than 1k rmb, much worst than our nep melayu.

      now even worst, work closely again with russian to bully taiwanese hker tibetan xinjianger n seasian etc.

      betui bully n dictator.

      Delete
    6. Don't just FART!

      Show the supporting documents. Others, only u can appreciate those foul gaseous.

      Hope u truly read Russian, mfer.

      Oooop… don't forget about clearing those other farts too. The mixing of these various 'fragrances', guess, only u can tahan.

      武统 is very near. When r u going back to help yr 蔡妹妹 to defense her turf? Putvyr words into action. Don't just cloak like a toad on heat.

      Delete
  3. I don’t see how Trump can refuse to go. If he loses the election his White House belongings will be put out on the South Lawn and come Inauguration Day Biden will be sworn in. All Trump can do is open a “Confederate White House” at Mar-A-Lago in Florida and continue trumpeting from there. Like Taiwan shouting from Taipei.....ha ha ha.....

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    Replies
    1. Hehe..first ever good one...Like Taiwan shouting from Taipei LOLOLOL

      Batty-the- Bahalol zipping his banana mouth eh ? Hehehe, his Formosa kena dissed here and he buat bodoh, BananaBondUnited indeed, LOL

      Delete
  4. As much as I don't like Donald Trump but I think he will win again. Not that he's good but more of his opponent isn't better. US of A is just like Malaysia more people will vote Donald Trump like those blurred sotong have been voting UMNO previously.

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    Replies
    1. trump is fine, no war under him, though he dare bully all the bully.

      Delete
    2. Trump has wars now as he is having bloodless battlefields with 200 thousand+ deaths on his hand!

      He bullies the destitutes, the Poor & helpless Americans to match to his lies by playing the famous scoundrel chant of America first - in actuality his ass first!

      Only mfer, like u, think he is fine bcoz he superficially letting the 台毒 morons thinking he would fight their wars by selling outdated weaponry, via big profits, to these nonthinking kayak!

      Delete
    3. first american president that lead to many american dying is a great president, thats is how ccp zombie give verdict to their own ccp leader like mao deng n now xi that kill many many chinese.

      Delete
    4. First American president that lead to many Americans dying?

      Washington, as in the American civil war? How many?

      Johnson, as in the Vietnam war? How many?

      Verdict to their own leader?

      Chinese mainlanders give wholeheartedly supports to their CCP leaders like Mao, Deng & Xi. Thus the wars were win even with 小米加步枪 in the onslaughts of mighty modern weaponry.

      Can u say so to the f*cked Formosan to 蔡妹妹? Obviously u have zilch right to commence on the potus.

      Delete
    5. Trump dare to Hentam CCP.... peacefully, of course... for that I support him.

      Biden will be in CCP's little pocket, as long as Hunter can get his Cut money.

      Delete
    6. R u in the camp to know?

      Which camp?

      Or just pure fart!

      Delete
    7. Monstrous Sucking on WhiteSupremacist Cock big-time !

      You conveniently forgot your tRUMP Orange-Moron praised Xi to the high heavens..he said Xi is transparent, did a superb job in the handling of the Covid19 ( he hasn't started yet then that it is a Chinese Virus, the Kung-Flu, the Chyna Plague, hehe ), that he got his 'great piece of ass' daughter ( in his very own words, great piece of ass indeed LOL) to be given China patents for all her retailing consumer goods ( jewelry, attire items, etc ). He himself gets supplies from China and yet with one side of his mouth ranting about China raping his people and China stole their jobs.

      Yeah, for that you support him. Liars will always support liars. The tRUMP is detestable but you are worse. Suck deeply on him, hehe, bet you are on your knees everynight hoping he prevails in this reelection. Pray hard, as the Chinese too wants him to win, haha haha

      Delete
    8. i said no war n u rebut me with 2 war, no point using too much thesaurus, go learn basic comprehension. n y u always compare one elected by the people against one that gain power using gun n lie?

      ah jerk, biden is also white, the leftist n many western media is the main pusher of america nep, thats y i always find it odd y chinese msian support biden when a large percentage of chinese american support trump.

      Delete
    9. No war?

      Then what r those 200+ Americans died of?

      They r dead bcoz of the WAR as so gung-ho-lly proposed by u as in using lies!

      犬养mfer, yrs skill of comprehension is a known legendary that u keep parading here.

      Basic comprehension? Known-nothing mfer, thinks before u fart, next time.

      American nep!

      Wow! U know that term & yet u acts tak tau that it's mfers, like u, that encouraged, paraded & meme-ed to cheer those American on by spreading lies after lies about their psychological nightmare of dictatorial socialism!

      Maybe it has something to do with the same local farted sentiment from mfers in the mold of melayu palsu terlampau melayu!

      Same sentiment as those f*cked Formosan recruits in the invading Japanese army performing extreme atrocities than the genuine Jap towards the Chinese. Just to prove their 'loyalised japnanese-ness'.

      That's how that f*cked 岩里政男 thought about himself.

      U share that same genetic tendency? Or that long affair with 台毒 farts has meme-ed u into the same mold?

      Delete