The morning after GE14

The EC has announced the following results of the 14th GE:

PKR (effectively PH) - 104 seats
DAP in Sarawak (effectively PH) - 9

Thus PH = total 113

Warisan Sabah - 8 (informally allied to PH)
Solidairi Tanah Airku - 1 (Jefferey Kitingan)
Independent - 3

BN - 79
PAS - 18

Given the above results I reckon PH with its simple majority of 113 seats will be safe for a while, maybe for at least 3 to 6 months. PH does not need to rely on the Independent to make up the numbers, nor should it ever. The Sabah MPs have been notoriously fickle-minded and thus not reliable allies, though they might be good only for short term purposes.

Jeffrey Kitingan - Solidairi Tanah Airku

But PH may possibly fractured slightly if not irreparably when the goodies are being divvied up, but that we have to see.

At this stage it's still early days to analyse what went right for PH and what went so wrong for BN, but suffice to say that a rough guess-timate points to 3 factors that were adverse to BN, namely:

(a) the implacable rising anger at Najib (personally and as the PM) and his Administration (lots to write here),

(b) the Mahathir factor - I have written a bit on this after most of the election results convinced me that PH won - see Supreme Sifu of Malaysian Politics, and

(c) over in the East, the sense of deprivation and 'colonisation' by the Peninsular-ians turned Najib's 'fixed deposit' into a fallacy.

I will be keeping an eye on the new Mahathir-Administration's attitude towards 3 issues now that it has won the election. They are:

(a) GST,

(b) Oil royalties to Sabah and Sarawak, the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), and

(c) Review of past constitutional amendments that have not been kosher.

But there's always a honeymoon period of 100 days.