By Graig Nunis
News
December 2, 2025
7:13 am
Don’t use Sabah election results to predict outcome of GE16, says political analyst
The crushing defeat of Peninsular Malaysia-based political parties at Saturday’s Sabah elections is due to the unique dynamics at play in the state.
Political analyst Associate Professor Dr Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk of the Centre for Policy Research, Universiti Sains Malaysia, said the outcome shouldn’t be used to predict what may happen when Malaysia holds its 16th General Election.
“The distinct political sentiment in Sabah is driven largely by local issues, identities, and the Malaysia Agreement 1963. Unlike the more centralised politics of Peninsular Malaysia, Sabahans tend to favour regional parties that cater specifically to the needs and aspirations of the state,” he said.
“In this context, Warisan’s strong performance, securing the highest number of seats for a single party, reflects this localised sentiment.
“Although it didn’t win enough seats to form the government, it will pose a dangerous threat moving forward, not only for the next state election, but also GE16, which must be held no later than Feb 17, 2028.”
For the record, no single coalition managed to secure a simple majority in the state assembly.
Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) won 29 of the 73 seats, short of the 37 required for a simple majority. However, it received support from five independents, three from Upko, two from STAR, and one each from Pakatan Harapan and KDM. Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor will be the Chief Minister for a second term.
The Sabah-based Warisan party, led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, won 25 seats – the most by a single party.
Of the Peninsular Malaysia-based parties, DAP lost all eight seats it contested, while Parti Keadilan Rakyat lost nine of the 10 seats it stood for.
Perikatan Nasional won only one of the 42 seats it contested.
Umno, contesting as part of Barisan Nasional (BN), won only four seats – six when combined with its BN partners – a far cry from 2008, when BN won 59 of 60 seats.
BN contested 45 seats on Saturday. Even Umno’s state chief, Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin, survived a scare when he won Lamag with only a 153-vote majority.
In terms of the popular vote, Bernama reported that Warisan received 288,703 votes out of the 1.13 million total votes cast, while GRS secured 286,389 votes and BN 144,584.
Azeem said GE16 will likely reflect the shifting tides of sentiment in the West rather than the East.
While BN’s historical dominance in Sabah has diminished, Azeem said the situation in Peninsular Malaysia is different.
“The landscape in Peninsular Malaysia is shaping up to be even more fluid. Political alliances are undergoing a significant transformation, with the Barisan Nasional coalition, once a dominant force, now in a state of disarray,” he said.
“It is likely finished as a coalition, especially as the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) awaits approval to join Perikatan Nasional.
“Perikatan Nasional is trying to be the new BN. It already has Gerakan, and MIC is on the verge of joining. All that’s left is for MCA to jump onboard to finish off BN.”
Azeem said it would be interesting to see Umno’s reaction if MCA were to leave BN.
“If that happens, Umno will be the only dominant force in BN. How will it contest future elections? Using its own symbol, or continuing to use Barisan Nasional’s?”
He added that DAP also faces some hard truths.
“DAP may also look to reassess its decision to team up with BN–Umno to form the Madani government,” he said.
“The move appears to have backfired spectacularly in Sabah, but its supporters in Peninsular Malaysia may be a little more forgiving.
“There is no guarantee that Peninsular Malaysian Chinese voters will turn their backs on the party, but it serves as a wake-up call.”
Azeem said he wouldn’t be surprised if DAP is evaluating its options and decides that cooperation with BN may no longer be in its best interest.
Azeem also said that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is under pressure from all corners, especially with the latest episode concerning his former political secretary, Datuk Seri Shamsul Iskandar Mohd Akin, who has been remanded by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Agency in connection with allegations of corruption.
“Anwar is also receiving negative feedback regarding the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade signed between Malaysia and the United States on Oct 26,” said Azeem.
However, Azeem believes that the absence of a strong ‘poster boy’ for the role of prime minister could undermine PN’s efforts.
“Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin has the experience to lead, but he is no longer the same guy he was in 2020,” he said.
“Pas is the dominant party in PN, but none of its leaders will be accepted by the wider electorate – not even the Terengganu Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar.
“For PN to remain competitive, it must find the right candidate to serve as its ‘poster boy’, someone who is widely accepted by the electorate.”
Graig Nunis
Graig Nunis has been in the media line for close to three decades. He can be reached at gnunis@twentytwo13.my or on Twitter @gnunis1892.All Articles
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